I will express right up top that I am a little bit behind this season and that I still need to some a few of these contenders, so I will call out those films/performances just to ensure fairness.
When it comes to reading the reactions of others online, I am seeing a lot of comments that many of the nominations are quite basic...especially when it comes to the acting categories.
I will say that there was an opportunity for the Academy to recognize some performances that were out of the box...but in the end, it is all about exposure most of the time...and who campaigns the most.
I am only going to focus on the Big 8 categories, which will be the Screenplays, Acting, Directing, and Picture.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
THOUGHTS: The big snub here is Killers of the Flower Moon, and while I did predict it, I had wondered if it could end up being left off....though part of me wondered if Oppenheimer would suffer that fate. I think the strength of that latter film is just too hard to ignore...and frankly, despite the fact that I think Christopher Nolan gave short shrift to his female characters, it was his best script in years and was a major factor in why the film was such a success. But if I were to call out a winner in this category now, I think it is a tight race between American Fiction and Barbie. Due to the rules, Barbie got sent to compete in this category considering it is based on an IP...even though the film has been pretty much in Original Screenplay all season. I honestly could see this one going either way, but I would be inclined to vote for American Fiction of the two. I suppose you could consider Poor Things a dark horse here as well. Honestly, the only one that doesn't have much of a shot here is Oppenheimer but considering Nolan will (rightly) win Director, that is where his flowers should be focused. I think The Zone of Interest is in an interesting position here, but I do feel like it won't pull it through.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
THOUGHTS: Unlike a lot of critics and certain film buffs, I was not a fan of May December at all and was kind of hoping that it would get snubbed once we saw it wasn't performing well elsewhere. However unlike recent years, Original Screenplay feels more "barren" in terms of potential nominees...but I put it in quotations because there were other films that easily could've been placed here instead of not just May December but also Maestro.
Thankfully, neither of those films have a shot here.
While the Golden Globe for Screenplay is not always the best precursor for predictions, I do think there is a chance that Triet and Harari's win there for Anatomy of a Fall could prove hopeful that it could prove competitive here against The Holdovers.
With the Writers' Guild Awards being postponed til after the Oscars this year, we won't be able to look at them for any kind of predictions. BAFTA will end up being the major key here...but I do think that despite how much I do love Past Lives, it won't end up taking this prize.
I suspect it will be a race between Anatomy and The Holdovers. Both are worthy, but I am inclined to prefer the former. I also think that it could prove to be popular enough with the International block of voters to propel it to a win.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Sterling K. Brown, AMERICAN FICTION
Robert DeNiro, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robert Downey Jr., OPPENHEIMER
Ryan Gosling, BARBIE
Mark Ruffalo, POOR THINGS
THOUGHTS: No real shockers here. There was a possibility of seeing Ruffalo getting snubbed after being left off the lists for SAG and BAFTA...and at SAG, his costar Willem Dafoe got in over him.
Seeing Brown get this kind of recognition is nice after so many years of hard work, but American Fiction remains one of the films I have still not seen.
The trajectory right now seems to be that Downey Jr will sweep to a victory sort of for a combo of a good performance meets career win...and we've certainly had far worse wins. I am just not sure I would consider him undeniable in terms of his performance.
The real question will be seeing what SAG and BAFTA do. Keep in mind, last year no one was really considering Jamie Lee Curtis as a true factor in this race until she ended up winning at SAG over Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon.
And if you look at 2021 winner Youn Yuh-jung for Minari, she had been snubbed at the Golden Globes but then rallied for a win at SAG which led to her BAFTA and eventual historical Oscar win.
But yeah, that's Supporting Actress so I am going off on a tangent there...but the sentiment and thought process still stands.
At SAG, I suppose I wouldn't be shocked if Ryan Gosling managed to win thanks to the immense popularity of his work...but that is also the thing: it is not like Robert Downey Jr is in some obscure film or he is some unknown actor. Both are part of the Barbenheimer phenomenon.
I do think Downey Jr is the logical prediction at this point, but I think tides could possibly change.
I will say that Robert DeNiro gives his best performance in over 30 years in Killers, but I am not necessarily sure I would've been upset had he been left off the list.
I will say that one performance that I loved that didn't truly gain traction in this category, though he managed to get a GoldDerby Film Award nod (which is an online film critic voting site which I happen to be a part of) is the young Milo Machado Graner for Anatomy of a Fall....easily one of the finest child performances I have seen in a film.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Emily Blunt, OPPENHEIMER
Danielle Brooks, THE COLOR PURPLE
America Ferrera, BARBIE
Jodie Foster, NYAD
DaVine Joy Randolph, THE HOLDOVERS
THOUGHTS: I have not seen The Color Purple, so I cannot comment on Brooks. HOWEVER - I saw Brooks do this role on Broadway and she did a truly lovely job in a role that most have associated with Oprah Winfrey's iconic take in the 1985 film.
Even though I am not sure I would say she is necessarily undeniable either, I think it is a safer bet to think that Randolph will continue her impressive sweep of the season just like Ke Huy Kwan did last year.
It is lovely to see Emily Blunt FINALLY get an Oscar nomination after all this time, and while I do think she suffers a lot from her role being underwritten, whatever moments she does get are superb.
While I was no fan of Nyad, I didn't have as severe of issues with the performances, particularly that of Jodie Foster who I felt easily stole the film with her passionate and warm performance of Bonnie. Also, it is just nice to see Foster back in this kind of arena again after all these years! With this and True Detective, we are in the midst of the Fostersance!
That brings me to America Ferrera, which might be the most controversial nomination of the morning.
I sort of compare this nomination to that of Laura Dern's for Marriage Story, in that a particular monologue was considered the centerpiece for attention...but unlike Dern and Marriage Story, I would say Fererra's role had more to it than Dern's and it is obvious that Barbie is a much more significant film to say the least.
However, considering Fererra managed to miss all the major precursors except for the CCs, this is clearly a nomination that was selected by passion...but it was at the expense of some truly amazing performances.
I had hoped Sandra Huller could pull a double nod and get in here for The Zone of Interest, but also, Julianne Moore for May December (the film's highlight IMO) was far more worthy to slip in here.
In the end though, I think Randolph would cost through the rest of the season. Her sweep thus far just feels too strong to ignore.
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BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper, MAESTRO
Colman Domingo, RUSTIN
Paul Giamatti, THE HOLDOVERS
Cillian Murphy, OPPENHEIMER
Jeffrey Wright, AMERICAN FICTION
THOUGHTS: When people first started watching Killers, there was all this talk about how it might be DiCaprio's best work...and now, here we are: SNUBBED.
I don't think he was bad in Killers, but I do think there was enough stiff competition here and also a certain sense of frustration with the character he played that it ended up negatively affecting him.
I have actually not seen Rustin yet, but I have been a fan of Domingo as an actor for some time. I still recall his work in the little-seen but fantastic musical The Scottsboro Boys back in 2011.
Is there a possibility we could see a last minute surge for Bradley Cooper? I suppose I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility he could win at SAG....not to mention he managed to also get a Directing nod at BAFTA which kind of shocked me.
I still think this race is between Giamatti and Murphy...and I sort of suspect that SAG will go for the former and BAFTA for the latter which will create a semblance of suspense on Oscar night...but I am sort of inclined to think Giamatti might pull it off.
However, the snubs of Andrew Scott and Teo Yoo are a shame. They were longshots, especially Yoo, but it is sad to see Cooper on here and not one of them.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening, NYAD
Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Sandra Huller, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Carey Mulligan, MAESTRO
Emma Stone, POOR THINGS
THOUGHTS: The big news of the day with this category is the snubbing of Margot Robbie...but the fact of the matter is that for a while, most people suspected Robbie would miss this list.
It wasn't until she kept getting nominated for various prizes that some suspected maybe she would actually slip in after all. If I am being completely honest, I am not so sure I would've nominated her either. It isn't that she was bad in the film, but the competition here is just SO FIERCE...although I would've nominated her over Annette Bening which...I will get to her in a moment.
I am still of the belief that Lily Gladstone is Supporting in Killers...and to be honest, the film should've truly given her MORE of a spotlight to warrant a Lead placement (one reason it is nice to see that Screenply snub)...but there is no denying that Gladstone is a force and has such an amazing screen presence.
Mulligan was the best thing about Maestro, and that seems to be the consensus with people who were not so keen on the film like myself. I am also something of a Mulli-hoola-gan...yes I just made that term up....well at least I think I did... but she has given us so many amazing performances that were worthy of Oscars and yet this is only her third nomination. She was win worthy for both An Education and Promising Young Woman plus she was stellar in snubbed roles like Never Let Me Go, Shame, and Wildlife. As Felicia Montealegre, she was that bloated pretentious film's saving grace by a mile.
I shamefully have still yet to see Poor Things which I need to get on fast as it does seem likely that Stone may pull off a second Oscar win here. She already has a pretty undeserved win for La La Land where she was clearly the weakest in her category.
As for Bening, some people have speculated that perhaps she could win the SAG and become competitive to win...but the thing is I am not sure how sentimental these voters are going to be. Just a few years ago, everything seemed to be set in motion for Glenn Close to finally win her overdue Oscar for The Wife...along for Globe/BAFTA winner Olivia Colman to (deservedly) swoop in and win. Then again - it would be on brand for the Oscars to finally award Bening for THIS performance rather than her work in films like The Grifters and American Beauty)
If anyone from this group deserves to swoop in (and she would need to win at BAFTA to be viable), it is Sandra Huller.
THAT is who I am rooting for her...and I do think if she wins at BAFTA, she could prove to be a strong candidate that a lot of international voters will rally behind. Her work throughout that film is the definition of sterling, but she does an exquisite job in the fight scene with her husband which, to her benefit for American audiences perhaps, is done primarily in English.
However, the tide seems to be moving into Stone's direction.
It is sad to see snubs for the likes of Greta Lee as well, but in hindsight, it was just a very subtle role going up against such big heavy-hitters.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Martin Scorsese, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
Yorgos Lanthimos, POOR THINGS
Jonathan Glazer, THE ZONE OF INTEREST
THOUGHTS: I never entirely bought into Gerwig making it in here and this was one category that I went 5/5 as I suspected Triet would benefit from her exposure of the Screenplay win at the Globes and the strong showing of the film at BAFTA. She also fits the bill of a foreign auteur slipping into the race a la Pawel Pawlikowski, Thomas Vinterberg, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, and Ruben Ostlund.
As it stands, Nolan is going to walk away with this and I think many of us suspected this even if we doubted Oppenheimer was the frontrunner to win Best Picture as well. I have never been a passionate fan of Nolan...and I am one of those people who still says his best film was Memento...and yet, I think Oppenheimer is worthy of that title as a whole. It is simply a monumental achievement.
I do want to give a shout out to another subbed filmmaker who I hope will keep making lovely films considering Past Lives was her debut: Celine Song.
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BEST PICTURE:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
THOUGHTS: As we have established, I have not seen American Fiction or Poor Things.
When looking at the nominees, there are no surprises. In fact, the 10 films on this list matches the PGA Top 10...which is actually kind of a big deal as normally that organization can lean more basic in terms of not acknowledging foreign films and they are more open to nominating popcorn flicks from time to time.
And yet, they went for the three foreign films...although I do think Anatomy and Past Lives both having portions of English do help them greatly in that regard.
As a list, even on just the films I have seen so far, the only ones that I have lesser of an opinion on are Killers and Maestro.
My issue with Killers still comes from having issues with its script and I frankly felt its pacing suffered on top of it. For anyone who wants to mock Oppenheimer for its length, go ahead...but for me, that film was a prime example of how to edit and pace a 3-hour film. I mostly found Killers to drag and found DiCaprio's Ernest a difficult character to watch after a while. There is no denying that there are great aspects, mind you.
As for Maestro, it may not have been 3 hours long but it sure as hell felt it! I know some pundits have been trying to defend Bradley Cooper but I also feel like so many film buffs were not pleased with this film. It just felt overly pretentious and a lot of it felt like a vanity project where Cooper just tried too hard all the time. I grew sick of hearing about him taking 6 years to learn to conduct...and then seeing articles crying for him that he keeps losing awards for said performance where he spent 6 years learning to conduct...but alas, the film has high profile producers (such as Spielberg) and is the prime example of the kind of film that the old guard Academy would eat up with a spoon.
Maybe not all of these films would make my personal lineup in the end, but simply put: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest are undoubtedly 6 of the better films to make a BP lineup in quite awhile. If I end up responding very positively to Poor Things and American Fiction, that will easily solidify this as one of my favorite BP lineups.
Some thought The Color Purple could still sneak in here, but I never bought into that narrative for them....but looking at a lot of these nominations, it is hard to tell what would've even been #11...unless they actually would've gone for something like Spiderman or The Boy and the Heron.
Oppenheimer is the current frontrunner, but I would say if it manages to face backlash like some films have managed to do recently (infamously La La Land), I think The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall are in the best position to actually be the strongest dark horses. I would also say American Fiction has a tiny shot if it manages to win Adapted Screenplay, so I would slot it fourth for now.
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OVERALL FINAL THOUGHTS:
Without being able to comment on a couple of these films, I can't be fully definitive yet.
Like I said, a lot of the Best Picture nominees I did see were quite good or even great...that's a lot more than I can say for the last two Best Picture lineups.
I do think it is a shame that Fallen Leaves was left off the International Feature film list, but in case you were wondering why Anatomy of a Fall isn't there, Emmanuel Macron was said to have not selected the film to be France's representation for the International Film category and instead opted for The Taste of Things, a film that I have actually not seen yet but some have said is a bit more droll. His decision was apparently stemming from Triet's harsh criticism of various policies that weren't left-leaning enough...and let's just say she got the last laugh in the end.
I do want to take a moment to comment on the selection of The Teachers' Lounge, which is the selection from Germany. A very wonderful film I watched this past weekend that was a rich look at the erratic lives that teachers often face when dealing with troubled students.
Once the awards get closer, I will do a final predictions post. By then, I will have definitely seen the remaining contenders and I will also likely have my Top 10+ list for 2023 up around that same time as well. I want to be sure I have seen enough films and ruminate on them because...I guess my opinion matters on my own blog.
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