I feel like the way 2023 ended and the way 2024 began has been a bit erratic for me.
I certainly fell behind on all of my movie watching and even when it came to the Oscars, it took until a week before for me to officially see my final Best Picture nominees and a couple of stray contenders.
A lot of this was due to work, me having COVID in mid-January, and ending that month with the death of my beloved grandmother.
On top of that, this award season has been a bit dull...which I will go more into at the end.
Despite of that, there is no denying that there has been an uptick in quality amongst the films in 2023. Maybe I wouldn't have nominated all of the films in Best Picture, but the majority of them are very solid or quite strong which makes this one of the best Best Picture lineups in recent years.
Since I have had a delay on seeing some films, I will be postponing my Top 10-20 List for 2023 for a little while longer as I still have a list of roughly two dozen films I still want to watch before making my final decisions. I normally try to post it the same weekend as the Oscars (which is coming on Sunday March 10th), but I doubt I will get to see a lot of the remaining ones during over the next two weeks.
However, I have officially seen all of the major contenders in the categories I am about to discuss so I can at least express my opinions freely in that regard.
Here are my final thoughts and predictions on the Big Eight categories at this year's Oscars:
___________________________________
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - American Fiction
#2 - Barbie
#3 - Oppenheimer
#4 - Poor Things
#5 - The Zone of Interest
Starting off with Adapted, I just have to say that poor Tony McNamara can't catch a break. I had suspected that he would be a prime candidate to win for Poor Things early in the season and even after seeing the film, he would easily get my vote. The lack of attention is almost as infuriating as when he and Deborah Davis lost out for The Favourite to....ugh...Green Book back in 2019.
As it stands, American Fiction is the expected victor here and I have to stress that it is A LOT better than Green Book, so the loss doesn't feel too egregious in this scenario.
The satire may be a bit to heavy handed at times, but the film is incredibly witty and entertaining.
There has been a lot of talk about Barbie's placement here since it is considered "Adapted" simply because it is based on an existing IP rather than a book or a play. However, the story is completely original so I can see an argument for both.
I did think that there was a chance that the popularity and the outpouring of support once Gerwig got snubbed for Director could propel her and Baumbach to a win here but it doesn't seem like the tide is turning that way.
Even American Fiction won this category at BAFTA despite the fact it received no other nominations.
Oppenheimer is in an interesting position here. Some feel like it could be caught up in an upset win here due to the film's pending sweep and the fact it showed strong results in the Secret Ballots that have been released...and despite the fact that those have forecasted changing tides in other races (Colman/Hokins), it can also mislead us (Grant/Cruz)
.
_______________________
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Anatomy of a Fall
#2 - The Holdovers
#3 - Past Lives
#4 - Maestro
#5 - May December
While most film fanatics out there are thrilled with it, I don't exactly get the critical acclaim that May December has gotten...especially in terms of its script...but alas, it is still better than the script for Maestro which I can't exactly say a lot of good about.
The film that is expected to win here is Anatomy of a Fall and I can gladly go along with that. As a film, I do think perhaps its ambiguity at times can be a tad frustrating as it leaves the film with sort of an "Is that it?" feeling...but it manages to be a very fascinating look at the French court system and also has some of the best dialogue of the year...particularly with the big fight scene that is Sandra Huller's finest moment.
I think The Holdovers is in second place, but I do think it is kind of a surprise how little this Screenplay has been awarded this season. I feel like going into the award cycle back in December, it seemed like it was a very likely candidate to win...and then it got surprisingly snubbed for a Golden Globe nod.
I feel like Past Lives is my favorite here, but a lot of what makes that film work so effectively is how its story has elements that can deeply touch you in various ways. A lot of it stems from that old chestnut of a storyline of: "What if?" and lord knows there are times where I have often wondered what would happen if something panned out differently in life and how it would be affected if someone hadn't left my life.
While it might be a bit deceptive and sparse, there is a certain poetic beauty to Past Lives and I wish that it had more traction in this category and ceremony as a whole.
________________________
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1 - Robert Downey, Jr, Oppenheimer
#2 - Ryan Gosling, Barbie
#3 - Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
#4 - Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
#5 - Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
People are bemoaning the fact that Charles Melton basically showed signs of going all the way with a nod following the Golden Globes only to quickly drop off following his exclusion from the BAFTA shortlist and the SAG nominees. Despite my relative distaste for the film, he did do a nice job in it.
As a whole, I don't mind these nominees...even those who wouldn't make my lineup in the end.
RDJ is going all the way here, and it seems to be a perfect storm of good performance meets BP winner meets career award...and I can live with that.
However, my personal vote would go to Mark Ruffalo, who is truly such a vile but delicious and hilarious cad in Poor Things. The role is such a departure for him and he truly excelled in it. A lot of the best scenes of the film involve him with Emma Stone.
I think DeNiro does his best work in Killers that he has done in years, but that isn't to say that it is necessarily anything that makes me go "wow" either. I am fine with the nomination overall, but I can see why he never took off as an alternate contender.
Gosling seemed like someone who would play as a dark-horse contender considering his involvement with the other pop culture icon film of the moment...also being quite fun as Ken, it must be said...but once RDJ won the Globe, I feel like that was the moment the ship sailed.
I LOVE seeing Sterling K. Brown get an Oscar nomination, even though I am not sure if he would've been on my radar for American Fiction in the end. I am more happy to see him get the recognition rather than the performance.
_________________________
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - DaVine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
#2 - Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
#3 - Jodie Foster, Nyad
#4 - America Ferrera, Barbie
#5 - Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
In what might be the weakest of the acting categories this year, Supporting Actress is going to go to DaVine Joy Randolph, who pulled off what has been called the biggest sweep of acting precursors ever....and honestly, I am cool with that.
I still don't think her performance is necessarily undeniable, but with the performances that had been gaining traction in this category, I am sort of content to hand her this easy win and call it a day.
Early on in the season, the buzz seemed to be lurking around Danielle Brooks as a potential spoiler, but with the buzz/acclaim for The Color Purple dying down, she now seems more like a filler nod in this race.
Seeing Foster here is nice though because she hasn't been nominated in nearly 30 years and she was easily my favorite part of Nyad. Her Bonnie is the best example of someone we'd want as a best friend/cheerleader in life.
It took over 15 years, but Emily Blunt finally got her first Oscar nomination...which is something that should've happened way back in 2007 for The Devil Wears Prada. It does seem crazy that it took a relatively small role for Blunt to pull it off...and I do think one of the biggest issues I can take with Oppenheimer is that Nolan wastes both Blunt and Pugh in their roles...but what I can say of Blunt is that when she is onscreen, she makes the most of it. Not sure she would make my personal lineup in the end, but I think this is a great example of an actress who made the most of such a small role.
Then we get America Ferrera...
I do think Ferrera is a lovely actress, but I do feel this nomination is not warranted. She does a very solid job, but I also think that the moment that has gotten her the most attention (the big monologue) is actually the weakest part about her performance because it feels very performative.
It is sort of like how Laura Dern (coincidentally in a film written/directed by Barbie co-writer and Gerwig's life partner Noah Baumbach) had a monologue about the plight of women in Marriage Story that was considered the centerpiece of her performance and yet it came off as too disingenuous...and that performance ended up WINNING despite being pretty much inconsequential.
I wouldn't say Ferrera is inconsequential in Barbie, but I still don't think she should've made this lineup.
Even though I was not a big fan of May December, I would've loved to see Julianne Moore on this list...but I will just be happy to see someone like Randolph come in and take it with ease.
_________________________
BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
#2 - Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
#3 - Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
#4 - Bradley Cooper, Maestro
#5 - Colman Domingo, Rustin
I was part of the group of people who viewed Bradley Cooper as a potential late-in-the-game spoiler for this award early on in the season. He seemed very prime to be the kind of winner who would start dominating during the televised awards, but not exactly be a hit with the critics.
There was certainly a hint of suspense during the Golden Globes they could've easily went for Cooper, and it didn't seem like an unusual prospect as they even gave him a Best Director nod.
Murphy and Giamatti winning there changed the trajectory, but it became far more interesting when Giamatti won the CC.
At the point, the average consensus was that Murphy would take BAFTA and Giamatti would take SAG...which would then lead to more of a race at the Oscars. However, Murphy winning at SAG does make sense considering how they do tend to run populist a lot of the time and considering he was the lead of one of the two biggest films of the year, it makes sense.
It also doesn't hurt that Murphy is a stellar actor who carries that 3 hour film on his back with ease. It is a subtle performance but it is also a performance where he uses his eyes to such great compelling effect.
Cooper aside, I do like all of these performances a lot.
Domingo does very well in a more traditional boilerplate biopic role (which, then again, Murphy falls under the biopic umbrella too but Oppenheimer feels as if its in a class by itself) while Wright does such a great job with his slow-burn deadpan comedy.
_________________________
BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
#2 - Emma Stone, Poor Things
#3 - Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
#4 - Carey Mulligan, Maestro
#5 - Annette Bening, Nyad
This seems to be the only category where we have some semblance of suspense...unless you may want to count Adapted Screenplay.
After a couple of awards seasons where we have had a lot of suspense in certain acting categories and even Best Picture, we now have another season where everything is pretty much totally predictable. On one hand, a lot of these frontrunners are worthy so that doesn't make it too bad...but it certainly makes me miss that exciting "on the edge" feeling I got to experience on Oscar night in various ways since the 2021 ceremony.
At the moment, the Gladstone/Stone race sort of mirrors that of the Yeoh/Blanchett race from last year in that the former won Globe/SAG while the latter won Globe/CC/BAFTA.
The major difference in this case is that Gladstone is not in the film that is going to be an Oscar juggernaut. In fact, she is the film's only hope for a win...but she does have a narrative and passion and, it must be said, historical importance behind her win.
Stone is hurt by the fact that she already won an Oscar (which also likely hurt Blanchett as well since she had TWO)...and it isn't like she is older and a legend like Frances McDormand who managed to win a 3rd without campaigning even though Carey Mulligan was RIGHT THERE.
In the end though, I don't think most Oscar voters think that way. In my opinion, Stone never should've won for La La Land but in this case, Stone is worthy to win...and if she does, I think she has the strong performance to back it up.
Gladstone suffers more from the fact that she is truly a supporting performance and a lot of her work is more subtle/passive...and this isn't to say that subtle performances aren't great. If anything, I still would be fine with her winning because whenever she did have a chance to command the screen, she was far and away the best thing about that film.
I do need to bring up Sandra Huller though, because in my mind, she should be win competitive here. Most of her work is also pretty subtle aside from one truly stellar fight scene which is easily one of my favorite moments of the year acting wise. I had hoped that Huller would upset at BAFTA just to make the race a bit more exciting, but it didn't happen.
As much as I have been bashing Maestro, I am also something of what I like to call a Carey Mulli-hooligan. Like a beacon of light, she steals the whole movie and becomes the main reason to see it. Considering she has been win-worthy on her last two nominations prior and she has been snubbed for nominations on at least two other occasions (including yet another win worthy performance in Shame), I am dying for her to get the right vehicle to put her on top.
Lastly, we have Annette Bening...an actress who is also highly overdue but can never seem to catch a break. I had hoped Nyad would be that vehicle, but it was simply not that great a film, and I would argue I came away from it being more intrigued by Jodie Foster's character than Bening.
I am predicting Gladstone based on the obvious passion for her and her recent SAG win, but I think Stone might have an easier chance to slip through than Blanchett did last year. In truth, Stone carries a lot of her film whereas Gladstone gets (unfortunately) sidelined way too often in hers.
__________________________
BEST DIRECTOR:
#1 - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
#2 - Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
#3 - Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
#4 - Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
#5 -Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
I feel like one could argue ranking #2-5 in every order imaginable. This is how much of an arbitrary task it is with the kind of sweep than Nolan has had. It is very similar to Chloe Zhao in that way.
Nolan is winning this in a cakewalk and it is richly deserved.
As for the others, Triet's work is more subtle but done with such intricate care.
Scorsese is obviously a legendary director and he deserves more than just the one Oscar he has on his mantle for The Departed, but I don't feel like this is his best work. I do think he still has it in him to win another Oscar though.
Honestly, Glazer and Lanthimos are pretty much just as worthy as Nolan in my eyes but in differing ways.
Glazer is definitely the "art house auteur" nomination who, perhaps, made a film that is ice cold in its approach but it was totally effective...at least to me.
Lanthimos has such a clear distinct vision that makes him stand out as one of the most recognizable filmmakers working today, almost in a way that one could call out the work of Wes Anderson or even how one could recognize the work of Stanley Kubrick.
I fully support Nolan's forthcoming win, but I do think Glazer and Lanthimos would be worthy winners as well...but it is a clear apples to oranges to peaches comparison.
__________________________
BEST PICTURE:
#1 - Oppenheimer
#2 - American Fiction
#3 - Anatomy of a Fall
#4 - The Holdovers
#5 - Poor Things
#6 - Barbie
#7 - Killers of the Flower Moon
#8 - The Zone of Interest
#9 - Past Lives
#10 - Maestro
Just like Director, ranking this list of films seems very "at random".
Aside from the year of La La Land/Moonlight, if a film tends to steamroll a season, it is pretty likely going to win with no true clear alternative. Last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once did seem like a pretty strong foregone conclusion, but it did bomb at the Globes and especially at BAFTA. Early in the season, it looked like The Banshees of Inisherin would play a bigger role and then on Oscar night, it was clear that All Quiet on the Western Front was likely the runner-up.
In the case, Oppenheimer feels more like a Nomadland...only even stronger as it also managed to net a SAG Ensemble win, a plum that I thought was possible could go to something like American Fiction or even Barbie.
After EEAAO's sweep of 7 wins last year, Oppenheimer seems on track to win the same amount of Oscars...and some are predicting even one or two more. It does seem very likely to win Sound but I wouldn't be shocked to see The Zone of Interest upset in that category as it has such an intricate design that is truly effective. I am expecting it to win Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Score.
If it does take Sound as well, that'll give it 8 wins...the most a film has won since...ugh...Slumdog Millionaire in 2009....which was the last year that the Oscars operated on a 5-slot Best Picture system.
With American Fiction looking poised to take Adapted, I am ranking it as my #2 since Screenplay wins often signal strong support towards potential Best Picture upsets...plus it does seem to have strong actor support too...but that is sort of me grasping at straws.
This is also why I have Anatomy of a Fall ranked 3rd as it seems pretty assured at winning Original and the film certainly has key support. I might've felt more confident in its chances of an upset here had it performed a little better at BAFTA.
The Holdovers is in an interesting position because early in the season, I think many of us felt that it would be the most likely to be the spoiler. It makes sense on paper: one, if not, two acting wins, a possible Screenplay win...definitely the makings of sleeper pick.
But The Holdovers never seemed to take flight in terms of Screenplay wins...or even with Best Picture wins. It just hasn't won anything major aside from acting wins...so in that case, without a Screenplay win, I don't think the film will be able to overcome it to win Best Picture with just a Supporting Actress win...or even if Giamatti somehow pulled it off, too.
There was a period early in the season where many thought Poor Things could act as a spoiler, but it never seemed to take off aside from wins for Emma Stone and various techs. In many ways, it is probably TOO abstract for voters in that it is far more explicit than a film like Everything Everywhere All at Once was.
__________________________
No comments:
Post a Comment