A new year means that movie award season is officially in full swing, however things have stalled a bit due to the truly tragic and horrific wildfires that are causing absolute devastation to the LA area.
Award shows like the Critics' Choice Awards are postponed until February while guilds such as the Producers Guild of America have not announced when they will release their list of 10 Best Picture nominees.
Truthfully, I think it would be in the industry's best interest to reconsider how to proceed with this. As it stands, the Oscar nomination announcement was supposed to occur Friday January 17th but got pushed by two days. So far, no other announcement has been made about postponing it further.
The Award Season process is one that I frequently talk about and find a bizarre fascination with even though I truthfully find the whole thing to be a political scam most of the time. This year, the tragedy of the wildfire along with the fact that I find the film output to be less exciting is a dire combo to say the least. I also find the fact that one particular contender is getting a lot of acclaim is another factor that leaves me feeling cold and disgusted.
So here we go...my final predictions for the Big 8 categories for the 2025 Academy Awards.
_______________________________________
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Conclave
#2 - Emilia Perez
#3 - Sing Sing
#4 - A Complete Unknown
#5 - The Nickel Boys
This is an award that Conclave has seemingly had in the bag for months, and while I would say it is certainly a very solid script from a very solid film, I think the honest truth is that the category lacks strong contenders. The only other film that even seems to have the potential to slip in here is Dune: Part Two...and I get the sense that the exposure of that film is slipping.
Truthfully, I would love to see Sing Sing win this because that film was a clear labor of love, and it told such a bittersweet story so beautifully. The film could've fallen into maudlin/preachy/sappy territory, but it stuck the landing.
Then we have the elephant in the room: Emilia Perez.
I will go more into that film later, but if you read my review, you will know where I stand on that discourse.
The last slot seems to be a battle between A Complete Unknown and The Nickel Boys which conveniently happen to be the two biggest contenders I have not seen yet.
Sight unseen, I sort of suspect based on the acclaim that the latter might be more deserving of such an honor than a boilerplate biopic...but I truthfully can't say.
I do think Wicked has a chance to slip in here as well. I certainly wish it were here over Emilia FUCKING Perez....
_____________________
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Anora
#2 - The Substance
#3 - A Real Pain
#4 - The Brutalist
#5 - All We Imagine as Light
Right off the bat, I will state that I have not seen All We Imagine as Light, but I am choosing to go for it as it seems to be the other International film this year (aside from Emilia Perez) that is getting a lot of attention...and some years, that does translate to Screenplay noms (a film like The Worst Person in the World comes to mind).
I do think we could see a film like Challengers or September 5 slip in here, as well. If I were to predict one of those, I would go with the former.
I feel pretty confident that the other four are locked in. I could even see a path for the top 3 films here to actually WIN, but I do think this will go to Anora and deservingly so.
I do think that The Substance would be a very cool win, and it is a film I have warmed up to more in the months since I have seen it. A Real Pain would make for a solid winner too, but I do think it would be more on the brink since there is a chance it may not even make the Best Picture lineup.
The Brutalist seems to be coasting by on the fact that it is one of the major Best Picture/Director frontrunners right now, but even those who really love the movie don't seem to be factoring in a vote for its Screenplay. I certainly wouldn't support it as I, to plug my review, found the film to greatly suffer once we returned from Intermission.
Even beyond that, I just don't think the Screenplay is the film's strongest asset, even if it kept up the strength of its first half.
______________________
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1 - Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
#2 - Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
#3 - Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
#4 - Yura Borisov, Anora
#5 - Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
This category makes me a little sad because I would love to see Clarence Maclin get a nod here for Sing Sing. The fact he did get the BAFTA nod gives me some hope, but I am choosing to predict he sadly gets left off.
Kieran Culkin has been sweeping for A Real Pain and it's a wonderful performance, but...I am not sure he is THAT undeniable. It also feels like it is residual goodwill coming off his truly stellar work on the final season of Succession. On top of that, IT IS NOT A SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE.
Now, if you want to take Succession goodwill into account, that is where Jeremy Strong should come into play...and it's actually a Supporting performance! As I just stated yesterday when I posted my review of The Apprentice, Strong absolutely shines as Roy Cohn. As of right now, he is my personal favorite, but I could still see him get left off if the Academy simply refuses to watch the film.
I feel pretty confident in Pearce, Norton, and Borisov. I can't comment on Norton's work, but Pearce didn't wow me as much as he did for others. Borisov is even more tricky, because his role is far more passive, and he doesn't have his best moments until the final 20 minutes of the film...but he is surrounded by far more flashy performances in Anora and yet he sticks with you.
So yeah...right Culkin winning this feels like the most solid Acting prediction we can make.
_______________________
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
#2 - Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked
#3 - Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
#4 - Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
#5 - Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
I will admit that as difficult as it can be to make predictions when nominations from precursors have been all over the place, that is also what makes the whole process rather exciting.
Aside from Saldana and Grande...and I guess Rossellini as well...I feel less confident about the final two slots.
I am going with Jones mainly because of the power of The Brutalist even though she mostly underperformed with precursors all season. Also, I do feel like she deserves recognition as she was the strongest aspect of that film once it returned from Intermission.
I decided to stick with Danielle Deadwyler for the last slot over recent surging candidate Jamie Lee Curtis, but truthfully, the reason I am not predicting JLC is because I just don't know if I see her costar Pamela Anderson making it into Lead (more on that when I get to that category) and I just feel so weird about predicting Curtis and not Anderson...even if Anderson got left off the BAFTA list too.
The one major BAFTA (and SAG) snub that makes me really sad is Margaret Qualley as I really thought she would make it in. I suppose she still could, but it seems like too much of a longshot.
I could see a world where Grande wins CC and SAG, but then Saldana wins the BAFTA and the Oscar...or maybe Saldana will just sweep.
Both of these ladies are great, but they are both also co-leads of their respective films. In fact, Saldana is, in my opinion, THE LEAD of her film even more so than Karla Sofia Gascon. Despite my hatred for Emilia Perez, I cannot deny that Saldana gives a wonderful performance...but this is blatant category fraud. It is actually kind of hilarious and unfair that a performance like Saldana's would be competing against that of Rossellini's in Conclave in which she has less than 10 minutes of screentime.
The thing about Rossellini is that she has such presence for such a small role, and she's been so overlooked for years that it seems as though I, and many others apparently, are willing to give her this moment. Plus - I can't help but support it since her performance also happens to be category appropriate!
While I would say Cynthia Erivo is the clear lead of Wicked, there is no denying that Grande's role of Glinda isn't much less of a lead than Elphaba.
_______________________
BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
#2 - Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
#3 - Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
#4 - Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
#5 - Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
When Daniel Craig couldn't even get nominated on his home turf at BAFTA, I decided to remove him and take a chance on Sebastian Stan...even if I still wonder if people are willing to vote for him despite the fact he is playing Trump.
Beyond that slot, the other 4 contenders have pretty much been locked in place since last Autumn...even with Chalamet being sight-unseen by most.
Considering the recent uptick in support for A Complete Unknown and the fact that industry tends to love its biopics, I sort of agree with those who are saying there is a strong chance Chalamet may upset Brody at SAG...but even if that is the case, I suspect Brody will rebound at BAFTA and take his second Oscar.
Truthfully, I wish Domingo were more of a factor here as I think he is just as worthy to win as Brody...maybe even more so. He leads that ensemble so beautifully and I wish this was a performance that would be winning awards left and right.
Fiennes is incredibly overdue for an Oscar, but I do think this nomination will remain the award. It can be hard for subdued performances to win major awards, and this year, the tide just doesn't seem to be going in his direction.
I won't be surprised if Daniel Craig takes the last slot in the end, because there is the possibility Stan splits votes between The Apprentice and A Different Man.
Oh and then we have the random inclusion of Hugh Grant for Heretic in the mix as he managed to slip into the GG, CC, and BAFTA lineups. Who would've thought that such a small horror film could potentially get him close to his first Oscar nomination?
________________________
BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Demi Moore, The Substance
#2 - Mikey Madison, Anora
#3 - Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
#4 - Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
#5 - Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
I do love when a category can leave me in suspense and that is certainly where I am at with Lead Actress. Moore and Madison seem like the only locks, although Gascon seems highly likely as well considering how much she has popped up in the precursors and the undeniable amount of love the film has received.
Gascon would be the first openly trans nominee, and yes, that is a record I would love to see happen...BUT...I want to make this abundantly clear...that isn't the only reason we should nominate someone. She is good in the film, but not great...and she is negatively affected by the script she is handed. I just don't want to see this film get any attention, but it seems like the idea of Gascon missing is "hopedicting".
There are other contenders who many felt would play a stronger role in this season who mostly floundered like Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, and Saoirse Ronan....and I would frankly be floored if any of them made a random Oscar comeback. I suspect if any of them do, MAYBE Jolie could do it since Maria had been on some Oscar shortlists in a couple of tech categories and, it must be said, she does do a lovely job in the film.
But those last two slots are a bloodbath...and I am choosing to go with Fernanda Torres based on the recent surge of passion she has gotten after her Drama Globe win. Also - the stat of only two people in the last 40 years to lose out on an Oscar nomination after winning this award is very telling...especially when of those two wins, Shirley MacLaine won as part of a three-way tie (with the eventual Oscar winner that year) and Kate Winslet, who ended up winning in Lead for a different film.
I decided to go with Erivo for the last spot which isn't exactly a crazy choice in theory. She has managed to hit all the precursors, and she is part of a highly successful and widely seen film and has the performance to back it up. However, we do see people lose out on an Oscar nomination after making it in everywhere.
Just last year, a lot of people (me included) originally thought Margot Robbie would get snubbed for Barbie due to how competitive the Lead Actress category was...but then she kept getting nominated everywhere and I followed the trend that maybe I was wrong and decided to predict her...only for her to get snubbed for the Oscar nom in the end.
A lot of people have been predicting a similar fate for Erivo...and even when I first typed out my 5 selections, I originally had Marianne Jean-Baptiste in my 5th slot. Part of me still wants to slot her in as she seems like could ride the coattails of British voting bloc plus, she got a lot of exposure as winning the Trifecta of major film critics awards (NY, LA, National Society)...but you know who else won those awards plus a Golden Globe and then got snubbed for an Oscar nomination? Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky which also happened to be another Mike Leigh film. To add to that, I would argue Happy-Go-Lucky was a bit more embraced as a film than Hard Truths is.
So, I won't be shocked if Jean-Baptiste is nominated...but I decided to go with Erivo in the end.
________________________
BEST DIRECTOR:
#1 - Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
#2 - Sean Baker, Anora
#3 - Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
#4 - Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
#5 - Edward Berger, Conclave
Even before I saw Emilia Perez, I kept having this feeling that Audiard would get snubbed...but now that I see the overwhelming response to the film by the industry, I feel like his nomination here is practically inevitable.
I do think Fargeat will slip in here as that edgy kind of nomination that the Academy loves to do that isn't often done at other award shows, sort of like how fellow French director Justine Triet slipped in last year for Anatomy of a Fall, a nomination I did predict by the way.
Berger seems to be on track to get in as well, even though I had him pegged as being another potential snubbed candidate. I think it is still possible, but I do think he does very sterling work and I would support a nomination for him more so than Audiard.
Could we see critic favorite RaMell Ross get in here for The Nickel Boys? I will admit that it is one of the only remaining films I still haven't seen, but the response to his work has been pretty rapturous though not widespread.
I could also see Payal Kapadia slip in for All We Imagine as Light.
In the end though, it really seems to be coming down to Sean Baker and Brady Corbet...but the tide seems to be going more in Corbet's direction.
I do have a lot of issues with The Brutalist but most of that comes from Corbet & Mona Fastvold's script. I can't deny that what Corbet accomplished on such a small budget is nothing short of astounding. I don't know if the final product would make me vote for him personally in the end, but I also cannot argue with the possibility of a win.
I do want to shoutout Sean Baker though as I think he's been doing such good work for many years, and I really admired how he handled the different genre shifts in Anora. While that film has seemingly dipped in its precarious frontrunner position (which it could return to), I am still firmly in its corner right now.
________________________
BEST PICTURE:
#1 - The Brutalist
#2 - Anora
#3 - Emilia Perez
#4 - Conclave
#5 - The Substance
#6 - Wicked
#7 - Dune: Part II
#8 - A Complete Unknown
#9 - A Real Pain
#10 - Sing Sing
RUNNER-UP: The Nickel Boys
LONGSHOTS: All We Imagine as Light
The firm increase to 10 slots does make it seem like we may have to strain to find a contender or two for certain years. I also feel like we have the majority of the 10 all locked up with only one, MAYBE two films that I could see being swapped out.
The top 8 films here are in. There is no way around that, and I would be floored if any of them miss. The final two slots seem to be a battle between three films although I COULD see All We Imagine As Light squeaking in.
I think with the Screenplay and Culkin love, A Real Pain will eek out the nomination, but I am really torn between The Nickel Boys and Sing Sing for the last slot...and it also isn't lost on me how much of a shame it is that two films with predominant casts of color are duking it out for that spot.
To reiterate, I have only seen the latter of those two.
It is hard to really express anything on the matter without having seen it, but even if I had seen it and loved it, that isn't going to mean it'll translate to awards success. If that were the case, about 80-85 of the Best Picture winners would be different. I am going with Sing Sing since I do expect it to have Actor and Screenplay nods, plus a possible sneak into Supporting for Maclin.
I actually see a path that four of these films could win right now...and unfortunately, Emilia Perez is one of those four.
Please go check out my review for it HERE if you haven't yet.
In short, Emilia Perez is an offensive and trashy film that doesn't work as a musical and is an insult to the trans experience and Mexican culture. The fact it is being embraced at the level it is has me completely and utterly appalled. What is going to win?
At the exact moment, I am going with The Brutalist which I think could take Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography, and even Score rather easily...but I do get the sense that it may not be as liked enough. Its poor showing at SAG didn't help and while I don't bemoan the film for its length, I think some of us do agree the film greatly suffered in the final half due to it biting off more than it could chew in terms of plotting.
Anora could still pull it off, but I think it would need to win at PGA, and I think it would also greatly help if Mikey Madison can win at CC/SAG or BAFTA to go along with that package. I do think there could be a world where Anora could win Best Picture with just a screenplay win a la Spotlight...which speaking of that, maybe there is a world where Conclave can do that as well this year.
While I wouldn't predict it, unless the film manages to bounce back with SAG and PGA wins, there is a classic feel to Conclave that makes it seems like a film that more traditional Oscar voters would embrace. It just doesn't seem like the tide is going that way though.
If The Brutalist had stuck the landing in its final hour or so, I likely would be more ecstatic about the idea of it winning...but I do hope Anora can pull this off.
______________________________________________