ONE PREDICTION POST AFTER ANOTHER: What I Predict to Win at the 2026 Oscars

It is time for my final predictions for this year's Academy Awards. 

I would say of the top 8 categories, I am mostly predicting what is considered to take the prize. Maybe one of the categories is a tad risky, but I do only have one prediction I would call a big gamble.

We still have another two weeks until Oscar night, but I think this is what I intend to stick with.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

#1 - One Battle After Another

#2 - Hamnet

#3 - Bugonia

#4 - Frankenstein

#5 - Train Dreams

Every year, there always seems to be one film that I suspect will take a Screenplay award as a consolation prize, but instead we get a sweeper with the film expected to win the top prize.

I was part of the group early on that thought Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell had a shot to win here for Hamnet. It seems that even if somehow PTA ends up losing Best Director (which I really don't think will happen), this category is locked up for him. 

If I were being completely honest though, I LOVED Will Tracy's Bugonia script, but I feel like any year that a Yorgos Lanthimos film is in the running, its Screenplay is always overlooked despite being my favorite in the category. 

I really don't think Train Dreams or Frankenstein should be here. I know I am in a bit of a minority on Train Dreams, but I just didn't find that script to be the least bit compelling. I also think its use of the narration trope was unnecessary and intrusive. 

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

#1 - Sinners

#2 - Sentimental Value

#3 - Marty Supreme

#4 - It Was Just an Accident

#5 - Blue Moon

I would say this category is stronger than Adapted Screenplay...but much like PTA, I would say Ryan Coogler is a lock to win here for Sinners. I think that Sinners is such a far and away winner here that I also want to single out the other contenders here as they are quite stellar in their own ways.

Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt gave us Sentimental Value, which I will admit is not as strong as their previous effort The Worst Person in the World, but the film has managed to stay with and grow on me in the months since seeing it. However, I do think what makes the film sing is its acting quartet at the helm.

I know there are some who frankly cannot stand the film or the lead character (and its performer) at the helm, but I personally loved Marty Supreme and considered its script to be very vibrant and propulsive. 

Then you have the two non-Best Picture nominees, which is a shame to say considering one of them is It Was Just an Accident. It is crazy to think that early in the season it seemed as though Jafar Panahi was being touted as the biggest competition in Best Director against PTA and now, the film barely squeaked by with this nod. I still think it deserved a lot more, including a couple of acting bids, and I am still glad Panahi got SOME kind of recognition.

Blue Moon was a mild surprise to sneak in here, and while some of the dialogue and bits might come off as a bit twee or old-fashioned, the script overall is rather fanciful and effective. It gives Ethan Hawke so much to work with, and the result is his best performance in film after First Reformed...but more on that later. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

#1 - Delroy Lindo, Sinners

#2 - Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

#3 - Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

#4 - Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

#5 - Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

No Guts-No Glory. This is the big swing I will be predicting.

What an insane category and it is also proof how chaotic award season can be, especially when there is a gap between the major awards. 

Before the season even began, Sean Penn was seen as the frontrunner but some suspected that his reputation and the fact that he already won 2 Oscars would not make him viable. 

Then the critics awards started pouring in which were heavily tipping towards his co-star Del Toro...but then CC went for Elordi in an upset and GG went for Skarsgard.

Only for Penn to bounce back to win both industry awards.

The logical answer is that Penn will likely win thanks to the power of his performance and the fact that OBAA is such a steamroller...but then again, Lindo's surprise nod and narrative and his campaigning mixed with the love of Sinners does make me wonder if he could somehow pull this off.

I decided to say yes. I would've felt a tad more confident if someone like Del Toro had won at SAG...but it's not like I am going to lose money on this so whatever I guess...

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

#1 - Amy Madigan, Weapons

#2 - Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

#3 - Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

#4 - Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas, Sentimental Value 

#5 - Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Where to even begin here? This category has been a bit all over the place; despite winning at CC and SAG, I don't think Madigan is a sure thing. It's not unheard of but considering Madigan is the sole nominee for her film, I do think the odds are a little stacked against...not to mention she is a the scary almost cartoonish villain of a horror film. Not even Demi Moore could win for a body horror film after winning GG, CC, and SAG and having her film in Picture, Director, and Screenplay. 

I am going to predict her though if only for the fact that she does seem to have a lot of goodwill and it's such a delicious performance. Mosaku may make a tad more sense on paper considering she won BAFTA and is in one of the major frontrunners.

Taylor may have won GG and had been seen as an early frontrunner, but I still don't think she will have the strength to make a major comeback. I'd admittedly be a bit shocked, and if I am also being honest, I don't think she would deserve it. I get why Warner Bros did it, but I think Chase Infiniti should've been campaigned in Supporting and she would've been very worthy to be on this list.

It's a shame the Sentimental Value ladies didn't take off because I really loved both of them...especially Lileaas. I also really hate that Odessa A'zion isn't here for Marty Supreme, because while watching that film, all I kept thinking was that I was floored she wasn't getting nominated everywhere.

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BEST ACTOR:

#1 - Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

#2 - Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

#3 - Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

#4 - Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

#5 - Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon 

This has been a very interesting category in that Timothee Chalamet was expected to waltz his way through the season and win the award. However, the one bump in the road that some warned about was him losing at SAG due to the fact he won last year for A Complete Unknown and no one had ever won back-to-back SAG awards except for one instance: Renee Zellweger winning Lead for Chicago and then the next year in Supporting for Cold Mountain. Considering that SAG does tend to run a bit more populist, I did think Jordan had a shot to pull it off...and he did. 

Now the question is...will he win the Oscar too?

What's crazy is that there was a time that someone just winning GG and CC would be far more viable for a win. In fact, Sean Penn's first win for Mystic River was won with these precursors. 

In recent years, I do think winning SAG and BAFTA has been far more viable because those voting bodies have overlap with the Academy. The big twist this year is that BAFTA went for a hometown selection: Robert Aramayo in I Swear, a film that has not yet been released over here.

The path to Chalamet's Oscar was expected to be GG, CC, BAFTA but here is where the mental math begins: if it weren't for Aramayo, would Chalamet have won BAFTA? Could that end up causing him to bounce back if those voters would prefer him without Aramayo in the picture?

Or - will Jordan's last minute surge in a potential Best Picture spoiler that got a huge swath of recognition be the one that carries day?

OR - could Wagner Moura somehow benefit from vote splitting?

As you can see, I decided to go for Jordan. I will openly admit that while I do find him to be a bit insufferable as a person in interviews, I preferred Chalamet to Jordan. I also really loved all these nominees honestly...but I do wish Jesse Plemons were here for Bugonia.

Hawke is more of a traditional pic in terms of it being a biopic with a transformative performance that he could sink his teeth into. I do wish he had played more of a role in this season because it was some of the best work of his career.

DiCaprio is an interesting case because he is in the frontrunner, but he is also not the sole focus of that film as it is more of an ensemble piece. I am not sure it was the kind of performance that felt undeniable in the end, but I did really love his work...especially the comedic edges. 

In the end, Jordan is my final prediction, but I do see a world where Chalamet could somehow sneak in...or even Maura pulling off a major upset.

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BEST ACTRESS:

#1 - Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

 

#2 - Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

#3 - Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

#4 - Emma Stone, Bugonia

#5 - Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Easily the only true acting lock of the night, Jessie Buckley will coast to this win with ease...and deservedly so. However, I can't deny the brilliance of Rose Byrne, whose performance in If I Had Legs is essentially an exposed nerve the entire time. 

Reinsve getting this nod is splendid, especially considering she deserved to be in WINNING contention for The Worst Person in the World and wiped the floor with basically every contender nominated that year. 

Emma Stone has become a true Academy darling, and she is certainly very strong in Bugonia...certainly better than in her first Oscar winning role in La La Land.

Then you have Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue...a performance that has divided people down the middle saying she is the worst of any of the 20 acting nominees this year and others saying she is actually worthy to win. 

But all that matters is that Buckley gave an emotionally raw performance and deserves the sweep of wins that she received.

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BEST DIRECTOR:

#1 - Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

#2 - Ryan Coogler, Sinners

#3 - Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

#4 - Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value 

#5 - Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 

PTA should be leaving the Oscars this year with, at least, his first two wins yet. It is still insane to me that with the career and quality of work he has done that this will be his very first time. 

The only person here that I think could pull off an upset would be Ryan Coogler, and that would be if they go all in for Sinners almost like they did when they gave Director to Bong Joon ho for Parasite over Sam Mendes for 1917...and thank God for that. 

I personally would give this to PTA...and I do think it would be an upset if he did lose. However, I think the upset of sorts could happen in our final category.

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BEST PICTURE:

#1 - One Battle After Another

#2 - Sinners

#3 - Hamnet

#4 - Sentimental Value

#5 - Frankenstein

#6 - Marty Supreme

#7 - Bugonia

#8 - The Secret Agent 

#9 - Train Dreams 

#10 - F1

I knew it was a possibility after its PGA nod, but I really didn't think F1 would sneak in. I had predicted It Was Just an Accident but felt that if any populist film would make it in, it would be fellow PGA nominee Weapons since it had the exposure of Amy Madigan and was seen as a potential candidate in categories like Original Screenplay and Casting. 

I do think in terms of Best Picture nominations, F1 has got to be one of the most laughable. Maybe not as bad as something like The Blind Side or Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but it just seems like a cheap choice. 

One Battle After Another has won basically every major prize it could EXCEPT for the SAG/Actor Ensemble award which went to Sinners. To be honest, I am not surprised it won...and it isn't like OBAA needed it. Anora certainly didn't need that extra boost.

HOWEVER - there is a path for Sinners to sneak in and take the prize.

It may be true that OBAA has had an epic sweep, but we've seen films win Best Picture simply by winning SAG/Actor Ensemble and a Screenplay win at the WGA. Both Spotlight and Parasite come to mind, and I do think the passion and widespread appeal and financial success of Sinners would make it a viable possibility. It used to be very common for the film with the most nominations to be the contender most likely to win...and potentially sweep. Lately, that hasn't been much of a factor. If that were the case, Emilia Perez would've won more than two awards last year...which I shudder at the thought of that universe.

Sinners breaking the all-time record with 16 nominations is not nothing. OBAA also got 13 nominations which is certainly a pretty strong haul. Had it gotten an Actress nod for Chase Infiniti, it would've tied the old record of 14 nominations. 

I am going to stick with OBAA, but Sinners really could sneak in. It wouldn't shock me in the least. As for the rest of these nominees, they are just happy to be here. 

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FINAL THOUGHTS:

I am honestly ready for the 2026 films to start rolling out. I am not saying 2025 was necessarily a bad year, but I don't have many films I feel truly passionate about...especially of the contenders. Early signs of 2026 make me feel a bit more excited but that doesn't necessarily mean anything because I felt that about 2022 and that turned out to be one of my least favorite years for film in recent memory. 

So yeah...that's all I wrote. 

THE JESSIE BUCKLEY SHOW - My Quick Review of Chloe Zhao's HAMNET

*While this is a fictionalized story in many ways and there are certain elements that did occur in a historical sense, I will just warn you that I will discuss key plot points freely, so consider this something of a spoiler warning* 

When it comes to filmmakers working today, there is something that is quietly alluring about the work of Chloe Zhao. She is able to create works that feel so inherently human and vulnerable and that flirt with feeling very naturalistic.

Having said that, I am not sure she has yet to truly blow me away with a film.

Her best work was the little 2018 indie called The Rider, about a rodeo rider who had suffered brain damage in an accident during one of his shows. It was her 2020 film Nomadland that made her only the 2nd woman to win a Best Directing Oscar and the 1st woman of color to do so: plus, the film netted wins for Best Picture and Best Actress for Frances McDormand. 

I was not overly enamored with Nomadland. I admired it a great deal and it was clear that Zhao and her cinematographer/life partner Joshua James Richards have mastery skills at bringing out a sense of scope in small intimate settings. It just didn't pull me in that much...plus it did rub me the wrong way how it almost seemed to praise Amazon as a wonderful company to work for. 

When it comes to Hamnet, I would argue that it is likely her most accessible and easiest watch...which is saying a whole hell of a lot considering its key plot point as the film progresses is the death of a young boy. 

2025 as a year of film is rather all over the place in terms of quality. I would argue maybe it was a tad better than 2024, but there were many films that didn't quite live up to the reputation I kept hearing about. I say this not to say that I hated Hamnet...far from it actually. I wouldn't say I loved it either. I would say it is once again a film that I greatly admired and even found moments that were truly beautiful or remarkable...but at best, I would say I really liked it. 

Based on a 2020 novel by Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet tells a fictionalized account of how legendary playwright William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) met his wife Agnes (Jessie Buckley), their budding relationship/marriage, the birth of their children, and the eventual death of their 11-year-old son Hamnet (Jacobi Jupe). 

You could say there is a subgenre of films that delve into grief, but even more so within that, you have the films that deal with grief and the artistic process. Some of my favorite examples of these include Three Colours: Blue and Drive My Car...but I don't think that Hamnet reaches the level of those two. 

Although, I will say it is the final act that pushes Hamnet to a whole other level. As a means to work through the grief of Hamnet's death, he writes what will become one of his most defining works: Hamlet. It was while watching the work right at the apron of the Globe that Agnes is able to more easily come to terms with her son's death...just like how Yusuke uses his production of Uncle Vanya to cope with the death of his wife in Drive My Car or how Julie manages to help complete a musical piece of her husband's after he and their daughter perish in a car accident in Three Colours: Blue. 

If there is anything that I can say sells this with any grandeur, it is that of Jessie Buckley. 

Buckley has been doing such good work for the last several years, such as being a standout in the mawkish Judy or being able to navigate the bizarre trappings of Charlie Kaufman's worst effort in, I'm Thinking of Ending Things. She also did such a great job in The Lost Daughter as the younger version of Olivia Colman's Leda. 

Unless there is some kind of crazy last-minute surge for someone else, I would make the claim right now that the only true lock of an acting Oscar win as of now is Buckley.

While she does face strong competition from Rose Byrne's anxiety attack of a performance in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, there is no denying that Buckley's portrayal of Agnes will be talked about for years to come. While in her quieter moments, she comes off as very strong-willed with an ethereal quality...but it is when she throws herself into the dramatic that she shines. Her birthing scenes are intense in how realistic they are, but when we get to the scene where Hamnet perishes from the plague, Zhao/Richards leave the camera fastened on Buckley's face as she wails with absolute grief. It is rather unsettling in moments because it feels uncomfortable to witness such a private moment, and even visually as at one moment, Buckley's eyes seem to roll in the back of her head.

Paul Mescal was seen as something of the big Oscar snub on nomination morning, although some did predict he could be the one to surprisingly miss. I do think he did a lovely job, but I also didn't find myself as engaged with him as this was clearly The Jessie Buckley Show. 

I do want to single out Jacobi Jupe as the titular Hamnet. 

I feel like in recent years we've been seeing an uptick in stronger performances by children, and I do think Jupe does such a magnificent job with his crying scenes and also his death scene. It doesn't feel like a performance that had a director meddling too much with obvious coaching...but then again, I still feel like the Brits just seem to pick up on acting a lot better than most. I suspect we will see great things from him...much like his older brother Noah Jupe, who just so happens to be the young actor playing Hamlet at the end. 

Hamnet is a handsomely made film that does take an eviscerating look at grief and the means of art healing oneself after the fact. I am just not sure I got hit as strongly by the wave of emotions as others did despite acknowledging how well Buckley navigated such a taxing role.

I am not part of the group that calls this a masterpiece, but if you were to see it for any reason, I would say Jessie Buckley is more than enough to do so.

HAMNET Rating: 7.5/10

A VAMPIRE RECORD - My Reactions to the 98th Oscar Nominations

In the entire nearly 100-year history of the Academy Awards, we have had 3 films manage to reach 14 Oscar nominations: All About Eve, La La Land, and Titanic. That record has finally been beaten today not by one nomination, but two.

Ryan Coogler's Sinners received SIXTEEN nominations as it managed to be a film to not only get widespread recognition across the Big 8 categories, but all of the crafts as well. Of course, this was the first year with the new Best Casting category which Sinners also made it into but even if that category didn't exist, it still would've made a new all-time record thanks to it securing a surprise acting nod which I will discuss here soon.

I do want to say that I am definitely a bit surprised that Wicked: For Good got shut out COMPLETELY. I was predicting Ariana Grande to get snubbed so that didn't surprise me, but I did expect it would get in for stuff like Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup/Hairstyling. Even though both of Stephen Schwartz's new songs were kind of ho-hum, I thought "Girl in the Bubble" would get in by default. I suppose, aside from the fact the film's reception was less than stellar, there was a clear sense of Wicked fatigue and "been there, done that". One has to wonder if they released it as one longer movie if it would've ended up getting a better reception.

Also - it seems very telling that the Academy was willing to vote for freaking Avatar for a costume nod over Wicked: For Good. Maybe I am not a super expert on Avatar and its process, but they actually had real-life costumes that weren't digitized?

One more quick comment before diving in:

What on earth does Park Chan-wook have to do to get recognized?!?! I know that the International category was a bit of a bloodbath this year but even back in 2022 when he had Decision to Leave, a film that easily was the best of that category (I even called it the best film of that year), he still got snubbed. He wasn't going to get into Director and Picture, but there was a good chance of him slipping into Adapted Screenplay.

Alas, that didn't happen...but let's start with that category.

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 BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Tracy, Bugonia

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

Despite loving their previous film Sing Sing which was one of my favorite films of 2024, I can't say that I extend that same love to their follow-up: Train Dreams.

I am fully aware that I am in the minority with that opinion, but I just didn't respond to that film at all. It was shot beautifully, Joel Edgerton did a very nice job, but the script felt very...sparse. Plus, I wasn't a fan of the narration trope used in it.

I am also not overly sold on Guillermo del Toro being here for Frankenstein, but I can see what others saw in it. 

I do think as of right now, PTA will be winning this despite formidable competition from Hamnet. I will say that while Bugonia doesn't have a prayer, it is yet another Yorgos Lanthimos-directed film that will get the shaft in this category despite having a truly stellar script. 

I do think it is a shame that Park Chan-wook couldn't slip in here over Frankenstein and especially Train Dreams. It also seems clear that sequel fatigue deeply affected Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, but I also think it would've made a solid nominee here.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

While floated as an outside possibility, the big surprise here is Blue Moon. However, I personally love seeing it included as I felt the dialogue for it was very rich and vibrant. It's nod also signaled early on that Ethan Hawke would make it in as well.

Thankfully, Jafar Panahi made it in here. He seemed like such a sure thing early on only to fade more in recent weeks, but he deserves to be here.

Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value are definitely expected nods, and both are richly deserved. 

In the end though, Ryan Coogler will have this one in the bag. It seems like the major place to reward Sinners unless the tide drastically changes and the industry goes hog wild for Sinners.

What got snubbed? I believe I predicted The Secret Agent to get in here for the pesky 5th slot but honestly that could've gone to something like Weapons or even Sorry, Baby. I would've loved to see Sorry, Baby get a nod for sure.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

While not something that was super out of left field, the nomination for Delroy Lindo was not widely predicted. He didn't get in at CC, GG, or SAG...although he is on the BAFTA longlist (those nominations haven't been announced yet) and considering his home turf advantage, he could very well be on that list when it comes out next week.

When I saw Sinners last April, I came out of the film wondering if Lindo could pull it off. His lack of a presence during the 2021 award season for Da 5 Bloods really rubbed people the wrong way and he has been doing great work for decades. In this case, I am very happy the veteran got in, because it was his younger co-star Miles Caton who had gotten in at SAG.

People had been floating the idea of Paul Mescal being the big snub for Hamnet which is kind of crazy it happened considering how well he and his film have been received. Plus, he had been pushed to Supporting likely because it would be easier to get in (typical co-lead/semi-category fraud), so it does seem shocking he was the one to get the axe.

It's a strong category though. I don't dislike any of these performances, and I actually love that Elordi got in because he was quite the pleasant surprise as The Monster in Frankenstein.

At the moment, it'll be interesting to see what happens. I could see a world where Elordi wins SAG, where Skarsgard got snubbed, but then Skarsgard comes back to win BAFTA and the Oscar. 

I suppose Elordi COULD go all the way, but my hunch is still going for Skarsgard.

Aside from Mescal (and Miles Caton), I suppose the only other person here who had an outside shot was Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly, but that film is deservedly DOA. He did a nice job but not enough that I think he deserved to make it onto this list. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another 

I knew it was still a possibility, but I just felt that the sinking ship that was Wicked: For Good meant that Ariana Grande was likely to be one contender who got recognized by previous precursors that ends up getting snubbed in the end.

The truth is that while I do think she did a great job in that role, I also feel like she simply shouldn't have been campaigned in this category. If anything, she was even MORE of a lead in this part than in Part 1...and she was clearly a Lead in that too!

Beyond that, this is a great group!

The only one that I am truly bummed to not see here is Odessa A'Zion, who was an absolute dynamo in Marty Supreme. My immediate reaction to her upon seeing it was "How is this girl not more of a serious contender?!" but I was hoping she'd get a Hail Mary reprieve after getting the SAG nod...much like Timothee Chalamet's co-star from last year's A Complete Unknown, Monica Barbaro...and not to be too catty but A'zion's work impressed me more in comparison.

I do think the other lady from Marty Supreme, Gwyneth Paltrow, was less expected to make an appearance here but I really liked her in that. I still preferred A'zion, though.

As for who will win, I actually think Teyana Taylor is in the best position to do so. While Amy Madigan was seen as potential frontrunner after all the buzz and her win at CC, Taylor took the Globe and considering she is in the film that is the Best Picture frontrunner, I do think that could tip the scales in her favor.

I think if Madigan were to win at SAG(Actor Awards...I just realized I have been calling it SAG the whole time), I think she would still lose the Oscar to whomever wins at BAFTA. I do see a world where she does take SAG, but I would be floored if BAFTA went for her. 

I could even see Sinners passion surging to a point where Wunmi Mosaku may sweep in from behind and take the Actor and even BAFTA (being British doesn't hurt)...but I could also see a world where someone like Lilleas wins at BAFTA.

Who is my personal preference? I actually don't know. They are all so great in varying ways. I do love that Elle Fanning had such a come from behind victory to get this nomination because I was truly very pleased with her work in Sentimental Value, but I sort of feel like Lilleas is my favorite here if I had to choose one.

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BEST ACTOR:

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme 

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

No surprises here. Some wondered if Hawke might barely miss as Blue Moon hasn't been playing super strong this season beyond his performance, but that Screenplay nod did signal he was safe.

I know some might've felt Wagner Moura was vulnerable after missing at Actor and not making the BAFTA longlist, but the sad truth is that him missing at the Actors wasn't a shocker, they RARELY go for foreign performances. BAFTA is a bit more surprising, but even they seem to favor foreign films from Europe rather than elsewhere. I just feel like his path to the nod was similar to that of fellow Brazilian Fernanda Torres, who won the Globe last year for I'm Still Here which solidified her chance at a nomination.

Chalamet seems on track to win his first Oscar, which I do think he is worthy to do so for this role...but I kind of wish Hawke could surprise at Actor. No performer has ever won back-to-back Actor awards in Lead so there is a possibility they will opt for someone else. If they don't, I think Chalamet would clearly be stronger than ever.

DiCaprio could surprise I suppose. Him being in the frontrunner helps, but I also really loved his work in OBAA. I do think there is world where he could sneak in and win over Chalamet at Actor and then be a bit more formidable.

As for the missing contenders, the only one I think had the best shot to slip in was Jesse Plemons and frankly, it is a shame he isn't here. I personally think that was his best work to date and that he stole the film from Emma Stone. Joel Edgerton had an outside shot, especially since Train Dreams was well received and he was easily the best thing about it.

It's a shame that Lee Byun-hun didn't gain more traction for No Other Choice, but according to Academy voters, the films of Park Chan-wook don't exist.

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BEST ACTRESS:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

This is the only acting category I am feeling confident in calling a complete lock, even though Lead Actor more or less is at the moment, too.

Jessie Buckley has this in the bag.

The only real surprise here is Kate Hudson but that is not totally unexpected. That 5th slot was also expected to potentially go to Chase Infiniti for OBAA, but I did suspect if her youth (it was her first film role) and the fact that she is truly more of a Supporting player would cause her to miss.

I just thought the passion for OBAA would be enough over Hudson. Full disclosure though - I have yet to see Song Sung Blue so I can't comment on Hudson.

Justice has been served as Renate Reinsve is finally an Oscar nominated actress! I wish she had gotten in for The Worst Person in the World back in 2021, but that didn't seem to be in the cards.

Despite what I said about Emma Stone in relation to Jesse Plemons' work in Bugonia, she is still very good, and I certainly don't object to this nomination.

A lot of people are certainly mourning the snub for Amanda Seyfried, whom many felt would be the true competition to Jessie Buckley, but Searchlight certainly fumbled the bag when it came to promoting and releasing The Testament of Ann Lee. 

Lastly, Rose Byrne's nomination is richly deserved and I do think it is the kind of performance that I would truly Oscar-worthy.

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BEST DIRECTOR:

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Normally the Directing branch likes to throw a curveball by nominating an international director who hadn't made much of an appearance throughout award season, so my big swing prediction was Kleber Mendonca Filho for The Secret Agent since his film was surging, and he had even won Directing at Cannes.

Instead, they did stick with Trier as the international nominee that seems to get in nearly every year. I am fine with that, because while it wasn't a film with a lot of flashy flair, he did get incredible performances out of the ensemble.

Frankly, it's a great lineup!

Safdie wasn't a sure thing, so his name popping up made me very happy as I thought he did a marvelous job. Some even wondered if Zhao could miss, but that seemed unlikely to me.

I do think that if anyone would overtake PTA, it would be Coogler...but my god, PTA is so freaking overdue for an Oscar and his work on OBAA would make for a worthy selection.

Some of the snubbed contenders include Guillermo del Toro, whom I honestly wasn't predicting but I just feel like him being left off was the right call. It is a shame that Jafar Panahi's surge died down and that he couldn't make it in here...but it does seem like aside from its Screenplay nod, the early buzz of that film never sustained.

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BEST PICTURE:

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value 

Sinners

Train Dreams

I really didn't think F1 would pull it off. It just seemed like a typical populist PGA nomination, but I guess it slipped in by way of a similar fanbase of voters who put in a film like Ford v. Ferrari. 

I thought that if a populist film from PGA would make the lineup here, it would be Weapons. I didn't predict it, but I did see a world where it could slip in here and in Screenplay...only further bolstering a path for Madigan to win in Supporting.

I predicted It Was Just an Accident in F1's spot and it's a shame it missed as I think it absolutely deserved to be here. 

I guess the big question is whether or not we will see a new surge of love for Sinners or if One Battle will indeed be the long-overdue coronation for PTA?

Personally - I am still very much on the PTA train this year.

I will leave you with that for now. Hopefully I will be able to have a top 10 list up sometime before the Oscars. I still need to catch up on a few films before I feel I can make a definitive list.

"We are infinite..." - The Best Films of 2012

I can't imagine that a lot of you that have been following these posts are feeling particularly anxious to read this installment as I have not been overly enthused about 2012 as a strong year for film. 

If I were ranking films on a 5-star scale, 2010 had 3 films that would receive a lofty 5-star rating. 2011 only had 2 films, but truthfully only A Separation from that year was the true sweeping masterpiece.

2012 offers zero.

I do think highly of the following films, but it is clear that the passion level isn't as strong as it could be. I will say that all of these films would receive a 4.5 rating at least. There are some years of film where I end up putting 4-star films in my top 10 which is not as common as you might expect for me. I suppose there are certain years where I might grade on a curve, but 2012 is a year where I feel very confident in my top 10 though perhaps realize that some of these films wouldn't even crack the list in other years.

One film I did consider for the list was The Sessions, starring John Hawkes and Helen Hunt but that was the only one as I was personally not a fan of the big awards contenders that year like Lincoln. The Silver Linings Playbook, The Life of Pi, and while I would argue that the film was entertaining and a solid watch, Argo was not close to being Best Picture material.

However, we do have a couple of the Best Picture nominees on this list, and we will be starting with one of them.

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#10 - SKYFALL

Directed by Sam Mendes

Written by Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, & John Logan

I have had this list drafted for over a month at this point but kept abandoning it due to just feeling the urge to write reviews for new films or tackling the 70s instead as that decade clearly excited me more to write about (to put it mildly). 

Although, in that interim, I randomly revisited Skyfall over the long holiday weekend I just had and was surprised by how much it held up and how it may be my favorite Bond film of all time.

This was where the Bond series was able to find a way to blend modern sensibilities with the classic feel of earlier films without being too cloying and not having the campy vibe. Although, I do love the very droll and dry undercurrent of humor, and also having Javier Bardem as villain Silva, who plays him with enough slyness that make him a very enjoyable antagonist to watch.

I also think the film works well on an emotional level, considering how it would be the final film to feature Dame Judi Dench, and it also really shocks you in the beginning with the set piece of Eve Moneypenny (Naomi Harris) being put in the difficult position of having to try to shoot down a mercenary named Patrice who is battling with Bond but then accidentally shoots Bond who falls off the train he was on top of, which was going across a high bridge over a river. It is such an epic moment, and while Bond films are typically known for their epic moments, this is right up there at the top.

An absolute romp of a film that makes me realize that sometimes a good entertaining action/thriller isn't truly something to scoff at. Oh, and Adele's Bond song is one of the best!

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#9 - ZERO DARK THIRTY

Directed by Kathryn Bigelow

Written by Mark Boal

"I haven't been following the controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, but when it comes to torture, I trust the woman who spent 3 years married to James Cameron" - Amy Poehler

As her follow to the Oscar-winning war film The Hurt Locker from 2009, Kathryn Bigelow teamed up with the same writer, Mark Boal, to tackle a film that was VERY prescient for the time: the decade long hunt and eventual killing of Osama bin Laden after the events of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

The controversy that Amy Poehler referred to, in what might be the most savagely hilarious joke I have heard told at an awards show, revolved around the extension use of torture in the film as a means of taking a pro-torture stance, namely the use of waterboarding. Journalist Michael Wolff considered the film to be a "nasty piece of pulp and propaganda" and that Bigelow was nothing more than a "fetishist and sadist" for embracing the idea of torture as "right".

I will argue that the usage of torture shown in the film is rather gratuitous in the grand scheme, and that the film does fall into being a bit Hollywoodized in that the efforts of his killing mainly fell upon one person battling against the CIA. It also got flack for playing down the involvement of the Obama administration who, not for nothing, had been president for 2 years when the killing took place.

It is a bit of a complex film when it comes to its legacy, but it also a truly gripping and suspenseful thriller that once again proved that Bigelow is a master at crafting these stories.

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#8 - SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS

Written & Directed by Martin McDonagh

Beloved British/Irish playwright Martin McDonagh has made quite a name for himself. After quite a few highly acclaimed successes with plays such as The Beauty Queen of Leenane, The Pillowman, and The Lieutenant of Inishmore, McDonagh admitted that he actually wanted to pursue writing films more to plays, even stated that he "holds a respect for the whole history of films and a slight disrespect for theatre".  I will say that out of all his feature films, if I would name Seven Psychopaths as my least favorite, then he must be doing something right. 

I have only seen this film twice, once around the time it came out and then again, a couple of years ago where it played even better on rewatch.

Utilizing one of his go-to staple actors, Colin Farrell plays writer Marty Faranan. He's an alcoholic and suffering from a severe bout of writer's block. He has the title for his next script: Seven Psychopaths but doesn't seem to know who exactly his characters will be.

His best friend is a struggling actor named Billy, played by another McDonagh fave, Sam Rockwell. Billy has a means to survive: he kidnaps dogs and then collects rewards by insuring a safe return. 

Hmmm...that's almost Fargo-esque of him.

His partner-in-crime is Hans, who by our good fortune is played by the legendary Christopher Walken, and his presence as a rather bizarre religious man is the kind of energy that works perfectly in a McDonagh universe. 

However, when that duo ends up kidnapping the beloved Shih Tzu of gangster Charlie Costello (Woody Harrelson), all hell breaks loose as Marty gets thrown into the crazy criminal underworld of LA... but perhaps it'll serve as good inspiration????

Seven Psychopaths is so over-the-top but in the best possible ways. Farrell does great work as more of a straight man compared to people like Rockwell, Walken, and Harrelson around him...oh and even Tom Waits is there to add to the proceedings in a fun way.

Like I said, it isn't his best film but he's yet to make a bad film...or even just a very good film. McDonagh is low key one of the best filmmakers working today.

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#7 - BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

Directed by Behn Zeitlin

Written by Lucy Alibar with Behn Zeitlin 

I can still remember the huge surprise on Oscar nominations morning when both Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were snubbed for Directing nominations, and in their place, we got two nominations I love. I won't say what one of them was for as it is for a film I haven't discussed yet, but one of them was Behn Zeitlin.

That is one thing I do love about the Directing branch as they do have a tendency to throw curveballs towards a candidate who may be a bit out of the box compared to what the mainstream routinely nominates.

A tiny film made for under $2 million; Beasts of the Southern Wild was an adaption of Lucy Alibar's one-act play Juicy & Delicious. Set in a small island community in the Louisiana Bayou called "the Bathtub", we meet 6-year-old Hushpuppy (Quvenzhane Wallis) and her father Wink (Dwight Henry), who is very ill and filled with rage and resentment. As her father's health continues to worsen, nature also seems to go haywire: temperatures rise, sea levels rise, and the ice caps melt which unleash a slew of aurochs, an extinct bovine species. 

In terms of bold creativity and vision, there was something truly refreshing when Beasts of the Southern Wild came out. It is also remarkable the kind of chemistry gets out Dwight Henry and then 6-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis, who would go on to become the youngest actress ever nominated for an Oscar. She'd eventually lose to Jennifer Lawrence for The Silver Linings Playbook which...all due respect to JLaw but...no.

I am not saying Wallis would've gotten my vote (that would've gone to the previously mentioned Jessica Chastain and a nominee I haven't mentioned yet), but if she pulled this off, I certainly would've been thrilled with the inspired selection.

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#6 - MOONRISE KINGDOM

Written & Directed by Wes Anderson

Co-written by Roman Coppola

We are now in a period of film history where there seems to be some stronger critiques building up against Wes Anderson and how he always makes films that look and sound and feel the same. 

While I would argue he hasn't made a film I have truly loved in a while, although I have been positive on most of them, I still consider him a filmmaker I get excited to check out when he releases a new work.

Moonrise Kingdom is, for me, one of his best. 

Following two young protagonists played by kids making their film debut, an orphan named Sam (Jared Gilman) is attending a summer camp at Camp Ivanhoe led by Scout Master Randy Ward (Edward Norton). The camp is located on an island called New Penzance, off the coast of New England. Young Suzy (Kara Hayward) lives on the island with her parents Walt & Laura (Bill Murray & Frances McDormand). Sam and Suzy meet each other and are both very intelligent and mature for their ages and they do go from being friends to being romantic throughout that summer. By September, they want to run away together and execute a plan to do so.

There is a charm to Moonrise Kingdom that feels so vibrant and alive in a way that feels even more noticeable than in a lot of Anderson's other works. He affectively blends droll, deadpan, and slapstick humor with ease that when I first watched the film upon its release, I knew it was his best live-action work since The Royal Tenenbaums (I did very much love Fantastic Mr. Fox so that doesn't count). 

I could see where some might consider this to be a bit more contrived due to the schmaltzy angle it has, but I found it to be surprisingly affective. He has been able to sprinkle this element into other films of his after the fact, but as a whole film, Moonrise Kingdom is him at his most delightfully whimsical.

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#5 - THE ACT OF KILLING

Directed by Joshua Oppenheimer w/Christine Cynn 

*An unnamed Indonesian also assisted with the film*

While this is often considered a 2013 release, it was first released in 2012 overseas so I will adhere to that timeline and give this stellar documentary a shoutout here.

Our subject matter revolves around the mass killings in Indonesia back in 1965-1966, in which those that were deemed communists and against the New Order regime were killed, and then then the killers would become gangsters ruling the country.

The corruption only snowballs from there: rigged elections, destroying to develop more property, and widespread sexual assault, including raping teenage girls and women within the Gerwani Rights Movement. 

Considering how deeply disturbing the topic at hand is, there were quite a few critics who blasted the film for being exploitative and in horrendous taste. Nick Fraser went as far to refer to it as "a snuff film" and began a campaign to plea to Academy voters not to give it the Documentary Oscar.

That sentiment was so strong with some due to how the film utilized one such executioner, Anwar Congo, and his cronies boast about and even reenact via sense memory how they would torture/rape/kill these people. It was the belief that perhaps less focus should've been on the victims rather than the heinous actions of these people...but Oppenheimer's intention was to show how not only was it horrific, but that it was even more horrific that the people were basically saved by impunity.

I have only seen The Act of Killing once, and I likely never will again. It did the job it needed to do, and that is what an uncomfortable but strongly made documentary should do.

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#4 - FRANCES HA

Written & Directed by Noah Baumbach

Co-written by Greta Gerwig

After some of his more recent efforts like White Noise (which I did like more than most) and Jay Kelly, I can't help but wish that Noah Baumbach would go back to making films in the same vein as Frances Ha. In this case, it doesn't hurt that this was his first collaboration with Greta Gerwig who would go on to become his life partner as well. 

Frances Ha is one of those films that will likely alienate some or maybe leave you feeling conflicted as to how much you like it. That isn't to say that it is necessarily it is a difficult watch; it is just under 90 minutes long (much like his best film: 2005's The Squid & The Whale), and the results are quite possibly the warmest and most endearing.

Gerwig is the titular Frances, a 27-year-old dancer whose life is upended when her best friend/roommate Sophie (Mickey Sumner) has the opportunity to move to her dream neighborhood of Tribeca with another friend. Frances can't afford their Brooklyn apartment by herself so begins bouncing around from apartment to apartment, including one with her friends Lev and Benji (Adam Driver and Michael Zegen) in Chinatown.

While I was never "blessed with the dance", I certainly do take the idea of watching an artist flit and float from place to place. Sometimes it feels like a cruel joke, but I did opt to leap towards a job field that would provide me with a bit more financial stability, but it also meant sacrificing a lot of my happiness and, not to be melodramatic, my soul.

I am not saying that I want to have a life where I have to keep bouncing around from place to place, but I do miss that feeling of "an artist's life" and I wish I could have a fair amount of that whimsy back. Maybe 2026 will be a year in which I can make more of the steps to work towards that.

As for the rest of Frances Ha, I do love that Baumbach shot the film in the style of The French New Wave, utilizing only the barest of tech as if he were making a student film of the highest order. It truly adds to the film's magic and for all intents and purposes, I think it is better than a lot of people give it credit for.

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#3 - THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER

Written & Directed by Stephen Chobsky

I am willing to admit that a lot of the time I hear that a film has been adapted from a Young Adult novel, I don't tend to respond to the idea with much enthusiasm. 

My mind immediately goes to something like A Walk to Remember or I think of the Twilight series. I didn't have much familiarity with The Perks of Being a Wallflower other than the fact that I can recall the novel sitting on display shelves at my local Waldenbooks and at Barnes & Noble in the early 00s. 

Once the film was released, I noticed its reviews were quite strong plus it managed to get a Top 10 mention for that year's National Board of Review. I am not saying that is always the end all be all of recognition as they can throw in some random curveballs, but in the case of Perks, it was enough for me to check it out. Plus, any film set in Pittsburgh always gets me a little excited since it was the biggest city I grew up around.

Logan Lerman plays Charlie, a teenager who suffers from clinical depression who is getting discharged from a psychiatric hospital. He is very shy and is nervous about making friends as he begins his freshman year of high school.

He meets two seniors, Patrick (Ezra Miller) and his stepsister Sam (Emma Watson) who eventually help him open up more, including letting them know that his best friend killed himself the previous year. 

I do love this ensemble. We get wonderful work from our trio of young actors, plus I always love seeing the great Joan Cusack, who played Charlie's psychiatrist Dr. Burton.

I am not here to proclaim that I had any kind of severe trauma that would be comparable to that of Charlie, if anything, my trauma was born from religion which I have gone into quite a bit. I was never diagnosed with depression, nor have I had a stay at a psychiatric hospital.

However, I still felt deeply for Charlie.

It was never easy for me to belong, and I always felt shy and unseen by most. While I did eventually find my sanctuary of sorts, I still find myself having a tinge of dread when thinking about my youth. From 6th grade up until around my sophomore year, I found myself loving getting sick as an excuse not to go to school. I would pray for heavy snowstorms to that school would be closed that day. If I had gym class, if I could get away with doing very little, I would gladly do so.

I even remember my county getting called for a 2-hour delay and begging my mom to just let me stay home when they opted not to close for a full day. She knew that I was struggling but she also knew I stayed home A LOT and that I couldn't keep doing it. I do have a memory of crying in my room, because I wanted nothing more than to just stay there.

There is truth to looking at your past and realizing that you eventually did grow and find yourself, but that sometimes you can't help but feel like that kid again. Although that isn't how I should let my life define me, in the end..."we are infinite".

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#2 - THE MASTER

Written & Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson

If you came to me even just a few years ago and asked me not just what my favorite film of 2012 was but also my favorite PTA film, I would've said The Master. This is an opinion that was also shared by PTA himself.

I have talked a little about The Master previously and how I do feel the film suffers a little from a bit of a meandering tone that perhaps makes it wane just a smidge on me in recent years...although I still think it was a fantastic film and it is well worth your time.

Set in post-war society following WWII, we meet a nymphomaniac alcoholic Navy vet named Freddie Quell (Joaquin Phoenix) who is having a very difficult time adjusting to a normal life. When he happens to stow away on a yacht, he encounters a man by the name of Lancaster Dodd (Phillip Seymour Hoffman), the charismatic and enigmatic leader of a movement known as "The Cause". As one of Dodd's types tends to do in these situations, he sees Freddie as a lost soul and proceeds to convert him into being one of his followers.

The film takes inspiration from various sources, most notably that of L. Ron Hubbard and the creation of Scientology but also elements of the lives of actor Jason Robards and novelist John Steinbeck. This isn't even going into the fact that PTA also got inspiration from seemingly his favorite novelist Thomas Pynchon with his book V. and the documentary Let There Be Light about WWII vets suffering from PTSD.

Yes, PTA writes and directs with great aplomb per usual, and the film looks incredible. It had been the first narrative film to be released on 70mm film in over a decade, and on top of that, this film contains some of the best acting you could ever witness from a film of recent years.

Amy Adams is wonderful and deserves a shout-out. I actually think she should've won the Oscar that year of those who were nominated (this was the year Anne Hathaway won for Les Mis, who I will admit was the best thing about that wretched adaptation). With Joaquin Phoenix and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, I consider them one of the best film duos ever. What these two accomplish is, no pun intended, masterful.

Brooding character studies are fascinating when done well, and The Master is exceedingly successful.

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#1 - AMOUR

Written & Directed by Michael Haneke

It might be weird to say that Amour is something of a passionate film from Michael Haneke, a filmmaker I have discussed multiple times on this blog. Haneke is someone who isn't exactly looking to brighten your mood...and while Amour is no exception, it strangely feels a lot more potent due to how it manages to somehow be poignant while shattering your entire being into a million pieces. 

Starring two French legends, Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva...along with another French legend playing their daughter Eva (Isabelle Huppert), Trintignant and Riva are Georges and Anne Laurent. Both are retired piano teachers in their 80s and still live fairly active lives, until one morning when Anne suffers from a stroke while eating breakfast. 

Anne undergoes surgery on her blocked carotid artery, but it is not fully successful as it leaves her paralyzed on her right side and she must be confined to a wheelchair. Anne wishes a desire to end her life, but Georges won't even begin to entertain the idea.

Although, in the first scene of the film, you will already know how their story will pan out.

Amour is a film that I immediately recognized as painful and devastating. I would've only been 24 when it came out and now all these years later, it resonates so deeply with me.

I am actually not so sure if I could revisit this film, which is crazy to say considering I have revisited some of Haneke's most diabolical of efforts like Funny Games or Cache. I think Amour was, arguably, his most successful film in that takes his dark depressing energy that could even have a slight skip in its step at times (if you've seen Funny Games, you will know what I am talking about) and gives it a heart. 

It's a tragic romance and an ultimate example in "are you willing to give the love of your life the end that they want?". Watching these two legends act opposite each other was a truly rewarding experience. It feels even more sad in hindsight now that we've lost both Riva and Trintignant, but I am so glad that Haneke was able to capture this glorious swan song for both of them.

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FINAL THOUGHTS:

I do write these posts and often tell myself that maybe writing about these films will surprise me and that I will think more highly of the whole output of that year.

Sadly, that was not the case for 2012. Hell, I ended up losing interest in writing about it and moved on to finishing up a whole other decade instead! I am glad I completed this year though, because these are certainly good films worth seeing for one reason or another. 

I've already written about 2013, which you can read about here.

That means I am moving onto 2014 next, and I will say right now that we will be seeing a shift in the right direction with that year!