I have grown rather disenchanted with the concept of "award season".
I still follow a lot of it; I still get intrigued to watch a lot of the contenders...but is there really much of a point to it?
I feel like it has become more and more about the campaigns and the fabricated buzz that is put out about movies and performances rather than the true quality of the content.
With how COVID has reshaped everything in the last two years, I certainly get the sense that a lot of these films aren't reaching audiences.
A friend of mine on Facebook stated she wasn't even sure what films would be in consideration this year...and this isn't surprising. I feel like the only reason I know about a lot of these films are because I have been following film forums over the past year. One thing that is very telling is that even living in a city like New York, I don't see as many advertisements around for films like I used to.
This past Saturday, I saw an ad on the subway for Licorice Pizza and it was the first public ad for a movie that is considered a true awards contender that I have seen around. Mostly, TV seems to be dominated the ad campaigns as I would see a ton of posters around for stuff like Ted Lasso, Succession, and Mare of Easttown.
Even something like West Side Story which got strong notices and awards buzz all season and got the theatre community abuzz is actually a financial flop. As of this writing, it has only made $62 million worldwide against a $100 million budget. Many state that it is simply due to COVID and while that could be true to an extent, it becomes a weaker argument when movies like Dune (**** Oscar info below***) and particularly Spiderman: No Way Home are killing it at the Box Office. Also, in the case of Dune, it still managed that high gross even being available on HBO Max.
Other films like The Power of the Dog, which is streaming on Netflix, have taken the approach of opening in limited theatres to qualify for awards before being put on Netflix full time.
A movie like that, which got immense critical praise, has not had as strong an embrace from the general public. Even I, who tends to like movies that a lot of people may deem slow and boring, found a lot of that film to be a bit too sluggish despite its strong qualities.
So yes, I am feeling a bit less enthused this year. I didn't even feel like doing a predictions post like I tend to do every year because I simply didn't care.
Having said that, some of the categories did have a certain unpredictable quality this time around which still left me intrigued for the nominations, so I guess that is something.
So here are the nominations for the big 8 categories: Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Director, and Picture.
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Best Original Screenplay:
BELFAST
DON'T LOOK UP
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
THOUGHTS: I think this is going to be the year that Paul Thomas Anderson finally wins an immensely overdue Oscar...although it is a shame that he will get it for a film that is arguably one of his weakest. The dark horse nomination that really came through here was The Worst Person in the World, the Norwegian film that had its awards campaign pretty much obliterated by Neon. I think had it gotten better exposure, it could've achieved a couple of other major nominations.
However...CAMPAIGNING SHOULDN'T DICTATE WHAT SHOULD GET NOMINATED!!
So yes, I think Licorice Pizza will take this. I suppose worse films have won this category and I would be thrilled to see PTA have an Oscar...but the truth is The Worst Person in the World is the deserving winner here.
THRILLED that Being the Ricardos was snubbed! That was easily one of Sorkin's weakest scripts.
What Screenplays were left out of the equation that deserved more attention? Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon has been basically ignored all season. Its WGA nomination was more a "desperate" nomination because they had to deal with a couple of these contenders not being eligible for that award.
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Best Adapted Screenplay:
Coda
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
THOUGHTS: I thought there was good chance that Drive My Car would slip into this race but I knew it was by no means a lock. I was so happy to be right here!!
Even though it clearly deserves this award, The Power of the Dog seems to be in a prime position to sweep this season. Jane Campion deserves lots of praise but I simply didn't connect to Power of the Dog that strongly and didn't think its Screenplay was its strongest suit.
As for snubbed contenders, I do think Joel Coen's adaptation of The Tragedy of Macbeth was worthy even if it may have truncated the material a bit too much. Otherwise, I am mostly happy with these nominations.
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Best Supporting Actor:
Cirian Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, Coda
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
THOUGHTS: It is nice to see a veteran actor like Hinds get a nod here, but I honestly feel like he did nothing of real note in Belfast. I also love J.K. Simmons but I don't think he did anything in Being the Ricardos to warrant a nomination.
In the case of Jesse Plemons, you could argue he fits that bill too but I would argue that his sterling and somewhat subdued and kinder presence feels refreshing considering his previous catalog of work. Maybe he wouldn't make my personal lineup in the end but it is nice to finally see him get some recognition.
For me, this category comes down to Smit-McPhee and Kotsur. I actually prefer Kotsur's sweet and emotional patriarch in Coda but I feel the steamrolling sweeper that is KSM will take this and I would still support that in the grand scheme. It is another subtle performance but his presence is undeniable.
As for the snubs, I am thrilled that we have no Jared Leto here for his cartoonish Italian caricature that he seemed so proud of creating. I also think Jamie Dornan getting snubbed for Belfast was expected at this point and I do feel he was another example of a performance that just simply had nothing there to warrant a nod.
Mike Faist and David Alvarez from West Side Story were also more worthy than most of the nominees above.
As it stands, this is easily my least favorite acting category of the night.
My dream nominees here would've been Masaki Okada for Drive My Car, Woody Norman for C'mon C'mon, and Anders Danielsen Lie, The Worst Person in the World.
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Best Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
THOUGHTS: This was a crazy category in that Caitriona Balfe, who got in at every major precursor prior and was seen as a potential spoiler at BAFTA, got snubbed in favor of the veteran candidate from her film. I can't deny the brilliance of Judi Dench but she was so unworthy of this nom at the expense of her co-star, who was one of the only things I liked about the overrated Belfast.
Over a month ago, I predicted a nom for Jessie Buckley but then it seemed like a bit of a pipe dream. I am very glad to see her slip in here as I actually find her to be my favorite candidate on this list!
Dunst finally getting her first nomination is richly deserved! She was robbed a decade ago of a nom for Melancholia.
Ellis is also a very solid nominee who was easily the best thing about King Richard.
Ariana DeBose is the frontrunner right now and seems poised to sweep. I feel like I am fine with that but I really don't see her as undeniable.
The real crime is that they snubbed Ruth Negga for Passing. At first, it seemed like a potential longshot but then she picked up nods at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTAs.
Passing getting pretty much ignored all season is a crime to me as it deserved nods for Picture, Screenplay, Actress, and Cinematography in addition to Supporting Actress.
Other candidates who were snubbed here include the likes of Ann Dowd in Mass, but the truth is she was truly a lead and her film seems to have disappeared into the abyss with voters.
I also would've given love to Gaby Hoffman from C'mon C'mon who got a lovely showcase as the harried sister of Joaquin Phoenix and mother of Woody Norman.
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Best Actor:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick tick...BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
THOUGHTS: I want to begin by saying that Javier Bardem is a fantastic actor...and I want to follow that with the fact that he simply didn't deserve a nomination for this performance. I really hoped his Globe and SAG nods were just flukes but...here we are.
This is seeming more and more like Will Smith could end up receiving his first Oscar. There is certainly a lot of goodwill towards him and his performance plus the film is a BP nominee.
Would he be deserving? I will say that there have been far worse acting winners and he did do a good job playing a character that was rather abrasive and frustrating.
However, I would still probably rank him 3rd or 4th in this category. I think Cumberbatch and Garfield give their best performances to date while Washington, despite not being the highlight of that film and having a slow start in terms of wowing me, does do good work overall.
I think Smith is going to take this but I am not ruling out Cumberbatch yet.
SNUBS: It was never going to happen but Hidetoshi Nishijima gave one of the strongest performances this year in Drive My Car...and frankly, I wouldn't have opposed seeing DiCaprio pop up here for Don't Look Up, which I considered to be better than his previously nominated performance in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Joaquin Phoenix's genteel work in C'mon C'mon was unfairly ignored all season and, to nearly the same level, so was Simon Rex's charismatic cad in Red Rocket.
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Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristin Stewart, Spencer
THOUGHTS: The sad truth about this category is that if I were to a pick a frontrunner right now, it would be Nicole Kidman...and she is easily the weakest on this list.
In my original review for Being the Ricardos, I acknowledged she gave a good performance but it still didn't impress me on any real level. She got certain essences of Lucille Ball but she didn't quite get there.
However, the other 4 are pretty solid nominees even if a couple of them wouldn't make my personal lineup.
I had a feeling Stewart would still show up here despite her SAG and BAFTA snubs but she is no longer the shoo-in that many expected her to be.
Cruz was a critical darling who still managed to get in on passion.
Colman has been on fire for the last few years and I actually wouldn't count her out yet. She could pull off a shocker and win a second Oscar just three years after her first; this would be a similar trajectory to that of British actress Glenda Jackson who pulled off that feat in the 70s.
Jessica Chastain is an interesting case. Her film was not very well received nor was it seen by many, but she still overcame the odds. Also, I would argue she was worthy to win a decade ago for Zero Dark Thirty. I have heard people bash her performance here as being very fake and brash, but honestly, I felt she very well captured Tammy Faye Bakker. Do some people not realize that she was a very flamboyant and emotional human being who presented herself in a rather colorful manner?
I actually am happy to see her get a nod though I do have to state that there are some snubs here that really infuriate me even if they may have been longshots.
Renate Reinsve's work in The Worst Person in the World might have been my personal choice for Best Actress this year but she would've been in close competition with Tessa Thompson from Passing, a performance I actually took to even more than Ruth Negga's.
Then you have the people who didn't really take off at all, like Tilda Swinton in Memoria.
The real shocker of the morning is the snub of Lady Gaga. At first, I really didn't buy into this...even after she won the NY Film Critics Circle Award...but then when she managed to get the BAFTA nom, I bought into the potential of her being a possible frontrunner.
Last year was crazy because a different person won every major precursor, but this year, we are at a point where I honestly don't know if I feel safe truly predicting until the SAG winner is called out. Also, BAFTA is now deemed irrelevant as none of these nominees even made their lineup!
None of these nominees come from a BP nominee so that stat also goes out the window.
I still think Kidman is poised to get her 2nd Oscar while Colman is the runner-up.
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Best Director:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
THOUGHTS: The biggest shocker here is that Denis Villeneuve was snubbed. Many were suspecting the big snub would come from either Branagh (that was me) or Spielberg or even PTA...and frankly, Villeneuve more than deserved this nom over Branagh.
A lot of people did suspect Hamaguchi to slip in here (including me) due to the Director branch being more open to International selections which we've seen in recent years with random (and deserved) nods going to the likes of Pawel Pawiloswki for Cold War or Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round...and the fact that Bong Joon ho actually won for Parasite when Sam Mendes swept most of the precursors.
In the end, Hamaguchi would get my vote but I do have to commend Jane Campion who did stellar work on The Power of the Dog...and she has swept through the season in a similar manner that Chloe Zhao did last year.
It would also be nice to see another woman win as she would only be the third to do so...and it is especially fitting for her as she was only the second woman to even get a Directing nod back in 1994 for The Piano.
As for snubs I would've loved to see, the ones I want to give a shout-out to are Julia Ducournau for Titane, Rebecca Hall for Passing, and Joachim Trier for The Worst Person in the World.
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Best Picture:
Belfast
Coda
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
THOUGHTS: There is only one real surprise here for me ---- Nightmare Alley? Really?
I honestly didn't think that had a shot anymore. I suspected that last slot would go to either The Tragedy of Macbeth, tick tick Boom, The Lost Daughter, or Being the Ricardos...or if I was being really hopeful: The Worst Person in the World.
It also seems especially shocking considering it got no other major nominations aside from a couple of techs.
I actually did predict the Drive My Car nomination and I am thrilled to see it here. I know it won't happen but I am going to will it into the universe for an upset. The sad thing is it doesn't have the guild support that Parasite where I could see the trajectory for it to win.
I found Belfast to be overrated but I do think that it could still be a dark horse here, even though it did miss the crucial Editing nomination.
I still consider King Richard to be a mostly average film that has no business being nominated here.
Don't Look Up is polarizing but I have warmed up to it since having watched it back in December. Would it make my personal top 10? No...but I don't loathe it like many seem to.
Dune was a spectacle of the highest order. It is a selection I do support.
Coda and West Side Story were very well made but would probably miss my top 10 in the end.
Licorice Pizza is well made but it still seems very slight as a film...especially if you were to unfairly compare to other works by PTA.
And I have admittedly not seen Nightmare Alley yet so I can't comment....
You've probably picked up on the trend that I was a big fan on the criminally underrated and unseen C'mon C'mon and that I feel it deserved to be here. I also feel like The Worst Person in the World should be here in addition to Passing and Titane (which got shafted from the International Feature shortlist so that was definitely never happening) or A Hero, which got snubbed today as well which was quite surprising.
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WILL I DO A FINAL PREDICTIONS POST?
Yes. I do plan to do a final predictions post. Plus, depending on how it goes and how I may feel after the fact, I may do another post on a reaction to the ceremony itself.
The Oscars will be in late March this year so more than likely, I will do a prediction post either a week prior or sometime during the weekend leading up to the ceremony. I will be moving to a new apartment soon so unless I get really compelled to write something else, this may be the last post of mine for a couple of weeks or more just so I can focus on that.
But for now, that's that.
