In the entire nearly 100-year history of the Academy Awards, we have had 3 films manage to reach 14 Oscar nominations: All About Eve, La La Land, and Titanic. That record has finally been beaten today not by one nomination, but two.
Ryan Coogler's Sinners received SIXTEEN nominations as it managed to be a film to not only get widespread recognition across the Big 8 categories, but all of the crafts as well. Of course, this was the first year with the new Best Casting category which Sinners also made it into but even if that category didn't exist, it still would've made a new all-time record thanks to it securing a surprise acting nod which I will discuss here soon.
I do want to say that I am definitely a bit surprised that Wicked: For Good got shut out COMPLETELY. I was predicting Ariana Grande to get snubbed so that didn't surprise me, but I did expect it would get in for stuff like Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup/Hairstyling. Even though both of Stephen Schwartz's new songs were kind of ho-hum, I thought "Girl in the Bubble" would get in by default. I suppose, aside from the fact the film's reception was less than stellar, there was a clear sense of Wicked fatigue and "been there, done that". One has to wonder if they released it as one longer movie if it would've ended up getting a better reception.
Also - it seems very telling that the Academy was willing to vote for freaking Avatar for a costume nod over Wicked: For Good. Maybe I am not a super expert on Avatar and its process, but they actually had real-life costumes that weren't digitized?
One more quick comment before diving in:
What on earth does Park Chan-wook have to do to get recognized?!?! I know that the International category was a bit of a bloodbath this year but even back in 2022 when he had Decision to Leave, a film that easily was the best of that category (I even called it the best film of that year), he still got snubbed. He wasn't going to get into Director and Picture, but there was a good chance of him slipping into Adapted Screenplay.
Alas, that didn't happen...but let's start with that category.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will Tracy, Bugonia
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell, Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Despite loving their previous film Sing Sing which was one of my favorite films of 2024, I can't say that I extend that same love to their follow-up: Train Dreams.
I am fully aware that I am in the minority with that opinion, but I just didn't respond to that film at all. It was shot beautifully, Joel Edgerton did a very nice job, but the script felt very...sparse. Plus, I wasn't a fan of the narration trope used in it.
I am also not overly sold on Guillermo del Toro being here for Frankenstein, but I can see what others saw in it.
I do think as of right now, PTA will be winning this despite formidable competition from Hamnet. I will say that while Bugonia doesn't have a prayer, it is yet another Yorgos Lanthimos-directed film that will get the shaft in this category despite having a truly stellar script.
I do think it is a shame that Park Chan-wook couldn't slip in here over Frankenstein and especially Train Dreams. It also seems clear that sequel fatigue deeply affected Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, but I also think it would've made a solid nominee here.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
While floated as an outside possibility, the big surprise here is Blue Moon. However, I personally love seeing it included as I felt the dialogue for it was very rich and vibrant. It's nod also signaled early on that Ethan Hawke would make it in as well.
Thankfully, Jafar Panahi made it in here. He seemed like such a sure thing early on only to fade more in recent weeks, but he deserves to be here.
Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value are definitely expected nods, and both are richly deserved.
In the end though, Ryan Coogler will have this one in the bag. It seems like the major place to reward Sinners unless the tide drastically changes and the industry goes hog wild for Sinners.
What got snubbed? I believe I predicted The Secret Agent to get in here for the pesky 5th slot but honestly that could've gone to something like Weapons or even Sorry, Baby. I would've loved to see Sorry, Baby get a nod for sure.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
While not something that was super out of left field, the nomination for Delroy Lindo was not widely predicted. He didn't get in at CC, GG, or SAG...although he is on the BAFTA longlist (those nominations haven't been announced yet) and considering his home turf advantage, he could very well be on that list when it comes out next week.
When I saw Sinners last April, I came out of the film wondering if Lindo could pull it off. His lack of a presence during the 2021 award season for Da 5 Bloods really rubbed people the wrong way and he has been doing great work for decades. In this case, I am very happy the veteran got in, because it was his younger co-star Miles Caton who had gotten in at SAG.
People had been floating the idea of Paul Mescal being the big snub for Hamnet which is kind of crazy it happened considering how well he and his film have been received. Plus, he had been pushed to Supporting likely because it would be easier to get in (typical co-lead/semi-category fraud), so it does seem shocking he was the one to get the axe.
It's a strong category though. I don't dislike any of these performances, and I actually love that Elordi got in because he was quite the pleasant surprise as The Monster in Frankenstein.
At the moment, it'll be interesting to see what happens. I could see a world where Elordi wins SAG, where Skarsgard got snubbed, but then Skarsgard comes back to win BAFTA and the Oscar.
I suppose Elordi COULD go all the way, but my hunch is still going for Skarsgard.
Aside from Mescal (and Miles Caton), I suppose the only other person here who had an outside shot was Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly, but that film is deservedly DOA. He did a nice job but not enough that I think he deserved to make it onto this list.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
I knew it was still a possibility, but I just felt that the sinking ship that was Wicked: For Good meant that Ariana Grande was likely to be one contender who got recognized by previous precursors that ends up getting snubbed in the end.
The truth is that while I do think she did a great job in that role, I also feel like she simply shouldn't have been campaigned in this category. If anything, she was even MORE of a lead in this part than in Part 1...and she was clearly a Lead in that too!
Beyond that, this is a great group!
The only one that I am truly bummed to not see here is Odessa A'Zion, who was an absolute dynamo in Marty Supreme. My immediate reaction to her upon seeing it was "How is this girl not more of a serious contender?!" but I was hoping she'd get a Hail Mary reprieve after getting the SAG nod...much like Timothee Chalamet's co-star from last year's A Complete Unknown, Monica Barbaro...and not to be too catty but A'zion's work impressed me more in comparison.
I do think the other lady from Marty Supreme, Gwyneth Paltrow, was less expected to make an appearance here but I really liked her in that. I still preferred A'zion, though.
As for who will win, I actually think Teyana Taylor is in the best position to do so. While Amy Madigan was seen as potential frontrunner after all the buzz and her win at CC, Taylor took the Globe and considering she is in the film that is the Best Picture frontrunner, I do think that could tip the scales in her favor.
I think if Madigan were to win at SAG(Actor Awards...I just realized I have been calling it SAG the whole time), I think she would still lose the Oscar to whomever wins at BAFTA. I do see a world where she does take SAG, but I would be floored if BAFTA went for her.
I could even see Sinners passion surging to a point where Wunmi Mosaku may sweep in from behind and take the Actor and even BAFTA (being British doesn't hurt)...but I could also see a world where someone like Lilleas wins at BAFTA.
Who is my personal preference? I actually don't know. They are all so great in varying ways. I do love that Elle Fanning had such a come from behind victory to get this nomination because I was truly very pleased with her work in Sentimental Value, but I sort of feel like Lilleas is my favorite here if I had to choose one.
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BEST ACTOR:
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
No surprises here. Some wondered if Hawke might barely miss as Blue Moon hasn't been playing super strong this season beyond his performance, but that Screenplay nod did signal he was safe.
I know some might've felt Wagner Moura was vulnerable after missing at Actor and not making the BAFTA longlist, but the sad truth is that him missing at the Actors wasn't a shocker, they RARELY go for foreign performances. BAFTA is a bit more surprising, but even they seem to favor foreign films from Europe rather than elsewhere. I just feel like his path to the nod was similar to that of fellow Brazilian Fernanda Torres, who won the Globe last year for I'm Still Here which solidified her chance at a nomination.
Chalamet seems on track to win his first Oscar, which I do think he is worthy to do so for this role...but I kind of wish Hawke could surprise at Actor. No performer has ever won back-to-back Actor awards in Lead so there is a possibility they will opt for someone else. If they don't, I think Chalamet would clearly be stronger than ever.
DiCaprio could surprise I suppose. Him being in the frontrunner helps, but I also really loved his work in OBAA. I do think there is world where he could sneak in and win over Chalamet at Actor and then be a bit more formidable.
As for the missing contenders, the only one I think had the best shot to slip in was Jesse Plemons and frankly, it is a shame he isn't here. I personally think that was his best work to date and that he stole the film from Emma Stone. Joel Edgerton had an outside shot, especially since Train Dreams was well received and he was easily the best thing about it.
It's a shame that Lee Byun-hun didn't gain more traction for No Other Choice, but according to Academy voters, the films of Park Chan-wook don't exist.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
This is the only acting category I am feeling confident in calling a complete lock, even though Lead Actor more or less is at the moment, too.
Jessie Buckley has this in the bag.
The only real surprise here is Kate Hudson but that is not totally unexpected. That 5th slot was also expected to potentially go to Chase Infiniti for OBAA, but I did suspect if her youth (it was her first film role) and the fact that she is truly more of a Supporting player would cause her to miss.
I just thought the passion for OBAA would be enough over Hudson. Full disclosure though - I have yet to see Song Sung Blue so I can't comment on Hudson.
Justice has been served as Renate Reinsve is finally an Oscar nominated actress! I wish she had gotten in for The Worst Person in the World back in 2021, but that didn't seem to be in the cards.
Despite what I said about Emma Stone in relation to Jesse Plemons' work in Bugonia, she is still very good, and I certainly don't object to this nomination.
A lot of people are certainly mourning the snub for Amanda Seyfried, whom many felt would be the true competition to Jessie Buckley, but Searchlight certainly fumbled the bag when it came to promoting and releasing The Testament of Ann Lee.
Lastly, Rose Byrne's nomination is richly deserved and I do think it is the kind of performance that I would truly Oscar-worthy.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Normally the Directing branch likes to throw a curveball by nominating an international director who hadn't made much of an appearance throughout award season, so my big swing prediction was Kleber Mendonca Filho for The Secret Agent since his film was surging, and he had even won Directing at Cannes.
Instead, they did stick with Trier as the international nominee that seems to get in nearly every year. I am fine with that, because while it wasn't a film with a lot of flashy flair, he did get incredible performances out of the ensemble.
Frankly, it's a great lineup!
Safdie wasn't a sure thing, so his name popping up made me very happy as I thought he did a marvelous job. Some even wondered if Zhao could miss, but that seemed unlikely to me.
I do think that if anyone would overtake PTA, it would be Coogler...but my god, PTA is so freaking overdue for an Oscar and his work on OBAA would make for a worthy selection.
Some of the snubbed contenders include Guillermo del Toro, whom I honestly wasn't predicting but I just feel like him being left off was the right call. It is a shame that Jafar Panahi's surge died down and that he couldn't make it in here...but it does seem like aside from its Screenplay nod, the early buzz of that film never sustained.
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BEST PICTURE:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
I really didn't think F1 would pull it off. It just seemed like a typical populist PGA nomination, but I guess it slipped in by way of a similar fanbase of voters who put in a film like Ford v. Ferrari.
I thought that if a populist film from PGA would make the lineup here, it would be Weapons. I didn't predict it, but I did see a world where it could slip in here and in Screenplay...only further bolstering a path for Madigan to win in Supporting.
I predicted It Was Just an Accident in F1's spot and it's a shame it missed as I think it absolutely deserved to be here.
I guess the big question is whether or not we will see a new surge of love for Sinners or if One Battle will indeed be the long-overdue coronation for PTA?
Personally - I am still very much on the PTA train this year.
I will leave you with that for now. Hopefully I will be able to have a top 10 list up sometime before the Oscars. I still need to catch up on a few films before I feel I can make a definitive list.