It is time for my final predictions for this year's Academy Awards.
I would say of the top 8 categories, I am mostly predicting what is considered to take the prize. Maybe one of the categories is a tad risky, but I do only have one prediction I would call a big gamble.
We still have another two weeks until Oscar night, but I think this is what I intend to stick with.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - One Battle After Another
#2 - Hamnet
#3 - Bugonia
#4 - Frankenstein
#5 - Train Dreams
Every year, there always seems to be one film that I suspect will take a Screenplay award as a consolation prize, but instead we get a sweeper with the film expected to win the top prize.
I was part of the group early on that thought Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell had a shot to win here for Hamnet. It seems that even if somehow PTA ends up losing Best Director (which I really don't think will happen), this category is locked up for him.
If I were being completely honest though, I LOVED Will Tracy's Bugonia script, but I feel like any year that a Yorgos Lanthimos film is in the running, its Screenplay is always overlooked despite being my favorite in the category.
I really don't think Train Dreams or Frankenstein should be here. I know I am in a bit of a minority on Train Dreams, but I just didn't find that script to be the least bit compelling. I also think its use of the narration trope was unnecessary and intrusive.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Sinners
#2 - Sentimental Value
#3 - Marty Supreme
#4 - It Was Just an Accident
#5 - Blue Moon
I would say this category is stronger than Adapted Screenplay...but much like PTA, I would say Ryan Coogler is a lock to win here for Sinners. I think that Sinners is such a far and away winner here that I also want to single out the other contenders here as they are quite stellar in their own ways.
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt gave us Sentimental Value, which I will admit is not as strong as their previous effort The Worst Person in the World, but the film has managed to stay with and grow on me in the months since seeing it. However, I do think what makes the film sing is its acting quartet at the helm.
I know there are some who frankly cannot stand the film or the lead character (and its performer) at the helm, but I personally loved Marty Supreme and considered its script to be very vibrant and propulsive.
Then you have the two non-Best Picture nominees, which is a shame to say considering one of them is It Was Just an Accident. It is crazy to think that early in the season it seemed as though Jafar Panahi was being touted as the biggest competition in Best Director against PTA and now, the film barely squeaked by with this nod. I still think it deserved a lot more, including a couple of acting bids, and I am still glad Panahi got SOME kind of recognition.
Blue Moon was a mild surprise to sneak in here, and while some of the dialogue and bits might come off as a bit twee or old-fashioned, the script overall is rather fanciful and effective. It gives Ethan Hawke so much to work with, and the result is his best performance in film after First Reformed...but more on that later.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1 - Delroy Lindo, Sinners
#2 - Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
#3 - Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
#4 - Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
#5 - Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
No Guts-No Glory. This is the big swing I will be predicting.
What an insane category and it is also proof how chaotic award season can be, especially when there is a gap between the major awards.
Before the season even began, Sean Penn was seen as the frontrunner but some suspected that his reputation and the fact that he already won 2 Oscars would not make him viable.
Then the critics awards started pouring in which were heavily tipping towards his co-star Del Toro...but then CC went for Elordi in an upset and GG went for Skarsgard.
Only for Penn to bounce back to win both industry awards.
The logical answer is that Penn will likely win thanks to the power of his performance and the fact that OBAA is such a steamroller...but then again, Lindo's surprise nod and narrative and his campaigning mixed with the love of Sinners does make me wonder if he could somehow pull this off.
I decided to say yes. I would've felt a tad more confident if someone like Del Toro had won at SAG...but it's not like I am going to lose money on this so whatever I guess...
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - Amy Madigan, Weapons
#2 - Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
#3 - Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
#4 - Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas, Sentimental Value
#5 - Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Where to even begin here? This category has been a bit all over the place; despite winning at CC and SAG, I don't think Madigan is a sure thing. It's not unheard of but considering Madigan is the sole nominee for her film, I do think the odds are a little stacked against...not to mention she is a the scary almost cartoonish villain of a horror film. Not even Demi Moore could win for a body horror film after winning GG, CC, and SAG and having her film in Picture, Director, and Screenplay.
I am going to predict her though if only for the fact that she does seem to have a lot of goodwill and it's such a delicious performance. Mosaku may make a tad more sense on paper considering she won BAFTA and is in one of the major frontrunners.
Taylor may have won GG and had been seen as an early frontrunner, but I still don't think she will have the strength to make a major comeback. I'd admittedly be a bit shocked, and if I am also being honest, I don't think she would deserve it. I get why Warner Bros did it, but I think Chase Infiniti should've been campaigned in Supporting and she would've been very worthy to be on this list.
It's a shame the Sentimental Value ladies didn't take off because I really loved both of them...especially Lileaas. I also really hate that Odessa A'zion isn't here for Marty Supreme, because while watching that film, all I kept thinking was that I was floored she wasn't getting nominated everywhere.
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BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
#2 - Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
#3 - Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
#4 - Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
#5 - Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
This has been a very interesting category in that Timothee Chalamet was expected to waltz his way through the season and win the award. However, the one bump in the road that some warned about was him losing at SAG due to the fact he won last year for A Complete Unknown and no one had ever won back-to-back SAG awards except for one instance: Renee Zellweger winning Lead for Chicago and then the next year in Supporting for Cold Mountain. Considering that SAG does tend to run a bit more populist, I did think Jordan had a shot to pull it off...and he did.
Now the question is...will he win the Oscar too?
What's crazy is that there was a time that someone just winning GG and CC would be far more viable for a win. In fact, Sean Penn's first win for Mystic River was won with these precursors.
In recent years, I do think winning SAG and BAFTA has been far more viable because those voting bodies have overlap with the Academy. The big twist this year is that BAFTA went for a hometown selection: Robert Aramayo in I Swear, a film that has not yet been released over here.
The path to Chalamet's Oscar was expected to be GG, CC, BAFTA but here is where the mental math begins: if it weren't for Aramayo, would Chalamet have won BAFTA? Could that end up causing him to bounce back if those voters would prefer him without Aramayo in the picture?
Or - will Jordan's last minute surge in a potential Best Picture spoiler that got a huge swath of recognition be the one that carries day?
OR - could Wagner Moura somehow benefit from vote splitting?
As you can see, I decided to go for Jordan. I will openly admit that while I do find him to be a bit insufferable as a person in interviews, I preferred Chalamet to Jordan. I also really loved all these nominees honestly...but I do wish Jesse Plemons were here for Bugonia.
Hawke is more of a traditional pic in terms of it being a biopic with a transformative performance that he could sink his teeth into. I do wish he had played more of a role in this season because it was some of the best work of his career.
DiCaprio is an interesting case because he is in the frontrunner, but he is also not the sole focus of that film as it is more of an ensemble piece. I am not sure it was the kind of performance that felt undeniable in the end, but I did really love his work...especially the comedic edges.
In the end, Jordan is my final prediction, but I do see a world where Chalamet could somehow sneak in...or even Maura pulling off a major upset.
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BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
#2 - Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
#3 - Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
#4 - Emma Stone, Bugonia
#5 - Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Easily the only true acting lock of the night, Jessie Buckley will coast to this win with ease...and deservedly so. However, I can't deny the brilliance of Rose Byrne, whose performance in If I Had Legs is essentially an exposed nerve the entire time.
Reinsve getting this nod is splendid, especially considering she deserved to be in WINNING contention for The Worst Person in the World and wiped the floor with basically every contender nominated that year.
Emma Stone has become a true Academy darling, and she is certainly very strong in Bugonia...certainly better than in her first Oscar winning role in La La Land.
Then you have Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue...a performance that has divided people down the middle saying she is the worst of any of the 20 acting nominees this year and others saying she is actually worthy to win.
But all that matters is that Buckley gave an emotionally raw performance and deserves the sweep of wins that she received.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
#1 - Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
#2 - Ryan Coogler, Sinners
#3 - Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
#4 - Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
#5 - Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
PTA should be leaving the Oscars this year with, at least, his first two wins yet. It is still insane to me that with the career and quality of work he has done that this will be his very first time.
The only person here that I think could pull off an upset would be Ryan Coogler, and that would be if they go all in for Sinners almost like they did when they gave Director to Bong Joon ho for Parasite over Sam Mendes for 1917...and thank God for that.
I personally would give this to PTA...and I do think it would be an upset if he did lose. However, I think the upset of sorts could happen in our final category.
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BEST PICTURE:
#1 - One Battle After Another
#2 - Sinners
#3 - Hamnet
#4 - Sentimental Value
#5 - Frankenstein
#6 - Marty Supreme
#7 - Bugonia
#8 - The Secret Agent
#9 - Train Dreams
#10 - F1
I knew it was a possibility after its PGA nod, but I really didn't think F1 would sneak in. I had predicted It Was Just an Accident but felt that if any populist film would make it in, it would be fellow PGA nominee Weapons since it had the exposure of Amy Madigan and was seen as a potential candidate in categories like Original Screenplay and Casting.
I do think in terms of Best Picture nominations, F1 has got to be one of the most laughable. Maybe not as bad as something like The Blind Side or Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but it just seems like a cheap choice.
One Battle After Another has won basically every major prize it could EXCEPT for the SAG/Actor Ensemble award which went to Sinners. To be honest, I am not surprised it won...and it isn't like OBAA needed it. Anora certainly didn't need that extra boost.
HOWEVER - there is a path for Sinners to sneak in and take the prize.
It may be true that OBAA has had an epic sweep, but we've seen films win Best Picture simply by winning SAG/Actor Ensemble and a Screenplay win at the WGA. Both Spotlight and Parasite come to mind, and I do think the passion and widespread appeal and financial success of Sinners would make it a viable possibility. It used to be very common for the film with the most nominations to be the contender most likely to win...and potentially sweep. Lately, that hasn't been much of a factor. If that were the case, Emilia Perez would've won more than two awards last year...which I shudder at the thought of that universe.
Sinners breaking the all-time record with 16 nominations is not nothing. OBAA also got 13 nominations which is certainly a pretty strong haul. Had it gotten an Actress nod for Chase Infiniti, it would've tied the old record of 14 nominations.
I am going to stick with OBAA, but Sinners really could sneak in. It wouldn't shock me in the least. As for the rest of these nominees, they are just happy to be here.
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FINAL THOUGHTS:
I am honestly ready for the 2026 films to start rolling out. I am not saying 2025 was necessarily a bad year, but I don't have many films I feel truly passionate about...especially of the contenders. Early signs of 2026 make me feel a bit more excited but that doesn't necessarily mean anything because I felt that about 2022 and that turned out to be one of my least favorite years for film in recent memory.
So yeah...that's all I wrote.
