Okay, it's that time. Two weeks from today, on April 25th, we will finally make it to the end of this overlong award season with the 93rd Annual Academy Awards.
These are my final predictions for the awards. I feel pretty good about the majority of these but one category is in such disarray that I will spend a long time discussing it below.
I will be listing the films in the order I think they are viable to win the prize...and when I list films, performances, directors, and writers who were snubbed, I am basing that off of personal opinion rather than likelihood of a nomination.
BEST PICTURE:
1-Nomadland
2-Promising Young Woman
3-The Father
4-The Trial of the Chicago 7
5-Minari
6-Sound of Metal
7-Judas & The Black Messiah
8-Mank
ANALYSIS: So, I've talked about this in previous years but the manner in which Best Picture is voted on is by way of a "Preferential Ballot". To spell out in detail, that means that voters will rank these 8 films from best-to-worst and then the film that manages to get the highest amount of #1, 2, or 3 votes to eventually tally up to 50% of the vote wins the prize. This method has allowed for a strange mix of winners from the glorious (Moonlight & Parasite) to the horrid (Green Book).
In the early 2010s, it was still fairly common for a film to gain a lot of momentum in the early precursors such as The Artist or Argo or for a film to, at least, share the bulk of the prizes like The King's Speech or 12 Years a Slave. However, in the last few years, the Oscars have thrown us a curveball. In 2015, the race was pretty evenly divided among The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight...and the more palatable Spotlight pulled it off despite being seen by some as the least likely of the three to win. Moonlight surprised a lot of people after La La Land dominated the season; The Shape of Water won after splitting a lot of its awards with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; 1917 swept through most of last season while underdog Parasite, which won SAG Ensemble and the WGA for Original Screenplay (much like Spotlight) managed to pull off the win on immense passion.
This year, I don't think any film will be able to overcome Nomadland. It will be the first film to sweep through an award season since Argo in 2013...and even more so than Argo because director Chloe Zhao has been more recognized than Ben Affleck for that film.
Many have wondered if the slow and rather simplistic nature of Nomadland might hurt it but it seems as if it is going to have enough passion to pull off these major wins.
The only films I would consider to be dark horses would be Promising Young Woman and The Father...and the primary reason for that is those two films are likely to take the Screenplay awards which could show support at an upset (much like what happened with Moonlight) but the issue with Promising Young Woman is that is incredibly divisive to the point where I would actually expect more conservative members to rank it lower. The Father suffered from a late release date and a horrible campaign by Sony Pictures...but it seems to be peaking at the right time.
Just a couple of months ago, I thought Trial of the Chicago 7 posed the biggest challenge at an upset but in order to pull that off...it would have to come from behind and win Screenplay like Green Book did...and if it does do so, god help us all.
Who Will Win: Nomadland
Who Should Win: Sound of Metal, Judas & The Black Messiah, or The Father
Watch out for: Promising Young Woman or The Father
Snubbed: I am leaving this blank for now as sometimes I like to have more time to process movies. Eventually I will post a "Best of 2020" list once I have seen a few more films and can ruminate on them.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
1. Chloe Zhao, NOMADLAND
2. Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
3. Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
4. David Fincher, MANK
5. Thomas Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND
ANALYSIS: This is no contest. While I may not be a passionate fan of Nomadland, I cannot deny how much Zhao deserves this. What she accomplished with this film was masterful and the fact that she was able to work with so many non-actors and have them adapt well to the screen was quite the effort in of itself.
In the case of the other nominees, I certainly think they are worthy of being here except for Fincher whose work was nothing but style over substance.
Who Will Win: Zhao
Who Should Win: Zhao
Watch out for: Even if NOMADLAND does end up losing Best Picture, I honestly don't see anyone upsetting Zhao. I might not be passionate about her film on the same level as I am a couple of the nominees but her achievement here was masterful.
Snubbed: Darius Marder, SOUND OF METAL; Shaka King, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH; Eliza Hittman, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS; Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW
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BEST ACTOR:
1. Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
2. Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
3. Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
4. Steven Yeun, MINARI
5. Gary Oldman, MANK
ANALYSIS: Anthony Hopkins just won the BAFTA for Best Actor. On one hand, this does show he has some support...but BAFTA also has a horrific history with honoring actors of color even more so than the Oscars. This year, despite having a jury nominate many actors of color, they still opted for two white actors in the Leading categoris.
In Hopkins' case, he has two advantages: he is a native of Wales which it often can help in close races if the actor is from the UK and also....HE WAS STUNNING IN THE ROLE.
The truth is that Hopkins deserves this prize and despite this last minute surge, I really don't think it is going to be enough to overcome the narrative of Chadwick Boseman to win the Oscar.
I also think Riz Ahmed will be back in the running sooner rather than later...but nevertheless, his work in Sound of Metal is worthy of an Oscar and I would be tempted to cast my vote for him too.
I also think Steven Yeun is very worthy of his nomination and that we will see him pop up in the race again soon.
Lastly, I do feel Gary Oldman's nomination is a waste. He wasn't bad in the movie but it just seemed like a pretty basic performance to choose when there were some very viable contenders who could've been in his place (see my snubbed contenders below).
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
Who Should Win: Anthony Hopkins or Riz Ahmed
Watch out for: I suppose Hopkins but I really don't think it'll happen for him...nor would Hopkins care.
Snubbed: Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS; Mads Mikkelsen, ANOTHER ROUND
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BEST ACTRESS:
1. Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
2. Viola Davis, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
3. Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
4. Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
5. Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
ANALYSIS: This is easily the craziest category of the night. On one hand, I love that because a crazy race is far more exciting than that of one where the same person sweeps through the season...which happened in every acting category last year for example.
The only reason I find it upsetting is I feel like there is a political angle to this race and it saddens me that Carey Mulligan has not gained the traction in this race that she seemed to be having early on. She lost the Globe to Andra Day in a huge upset, but then she rebounded with Critics Choice and AACTA (the Australian Oscar)...only to then get snubbed by the BAFTA (British Oscar) jury for a nomination, which was an award that many suspected she had on lock to WIN.
So, let's break this down:
Mulligan: CC, AACTA
Day: Globe
Davis: SAG
BAFTA: McDormand
Each major award was won by a single person (I know that Mulligan technically has two but I think the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA are more viable.
McDormand winning at BAFTA was not overly surprising (though not a good look considering they nominated 4 actresses of color and still chose a white woman). What hurts McDormand in this race is simply the fact that she already has two acting Oscars...and one of them she just won 3 years ago. On top of that, she is very likely winning as a producer of Nomadland.
Day came out of nowhere to win the Globe but then lost her nod at CC. She also got snubbed at SAG for a nom but that could be chalked up to the fact that not enough people saw her film in time due to its late release which has happened in the past with contenders like Saoirse Ronan for Little Women. One major snub as that by BAFTA who left her off the longlist prior to nominations despite giving it mentions in smaller tech categories. In addition to that hurdle, she also suffers from the fact she is her film's only nomination and the rather mixed-to-negative reviews the film received. It isn't as common for a film performance to win an acting Oscar as its sole nomination and in recent years it only seems to happen when a performer sweeps the season. Even Glenn Close managed to lose for The Wife despite a strong narrative to Olivia Colman who won the Comedy Globe and the BAFTA and, not to mention, she was in The Favourite which had 10 Oscar nominations. What could help Day is the fact this race is so fractured and she does play the kind of role that Oscar voters love: a baity biopic role and she does her own singing for the role, too. You also can't deny that the recent push to honor more POC for acting awards could aid that...but in that regard, you also have Viola Davis.
Viola Davis is one of my favorite actresses working today (along with Cate Blanchett) so the idea of her winning a Lead Oscar thrills me (frankly her Supporting Oscar for Fences should've been in Lead). However, I just don't think she should win for this role. It isn't that she is bad in the role but I feel like she suffers from a lack of screentime. If anything, I feel she would've been better off in Supporting for this performance. I do think her SAG win is important but I also thought there was a strong chance of that happening only because Davis has yet to lose a SAG nom since her debut nod for Doubt. She now has six wins there so its obvious they love her. One hurdle I think could be difficult to overcome is the fact that her film, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, got snubbed for Best Picture and Screenplay. It is very rare for a film to win multiple acting Oscars when it isn't nominated for the top prize...and I don't believe any other film has done it. Also, the last time a film shared both Leading Oscars was As Good As It Gets back in 1998 and that film did have a BP nom. Considering Boseman looks so formidable, I wonder if the stat will remain or if it will be finally broken. I just feel like there could be a groundswell to give this Oscar to Davis, but I feel like it'll be a waste of an Oscar when she is almost guaranteed to give far better performances in the decades to come.
Vanessa Kirby is out of the race entirely. She is the only one not to win any major awards (aside from Venice's Volpi Cup way back in the beginning of the season) and she suffers from being the only nomination from her film, like Day. The shame of that is that she actually gave my second favorite performance in the category...but who was my favorite?
Carey Mulligan....who I am going to predict to take this award. Part of it is me sort of just wishing and willing it into the world but I do see a viable path for her to take the prize.
Mulligan was shockingly snubbed of a BAFTA nomination by its jury...but the fact that her film managed to win BAFTA's for Best British Film (an award that it won only because of the Brit Fennell being the filmmaker despite its very American setting) and Screenplay show that Mulligan might've pulled off the win under the popular vote system.
McDormand having those two Oscars (nor caring to campaign) could aid to Mulligan as she is in the film that is arguably in second place behind Nomadland and will end up being the Original Screenplay winner. Mulligan is also an actress who has built up a lot of goodwill over the last decade and I could see this being her delayed coronation.
This will remain the only acting category to have me on pins and needles until the envelope is open.
Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan (by a hair)
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Watch out for: Honestly...any of them...but I think Davis and Day have the most viable and appealing narratives. .
Snubbed: Han Ye-ri, MINARI; Rosamund Pike, I CARE A LOT; Nicole Beharie, MISS JUNETEENTH; Sidney Flanigan, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
3. Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
4. Lakeith Stanfield, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
5. Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
ANALYSIS: This one is a done deal and one that I can get behind...except for one little nitpick.
Daniel Kaluuya is masterful as Fred Hampton in Judas & The Black Messiah and I think him winning here would be one of the best winners this category has had. The only downside is that it is basically category fraud. Both him and Stanfield are co-leads and having them in this category is a little unfair...particularly in Stanfield's case because I do feel like he would be the true lead if I had to be forced to choose. The fact that enough Oscar voters chose to put him on this list is simply baffling and practically unprecedented.
In fact, you could even argue that Odom Jr is co-lead in his film and maybe even Sacha Baron Cohen but I am fine with their placements. The only completely supporting performance here is that of Paul Raci, the truly inspiring and remarkable actor having his big break as a 73 year old man.
Raci is only onscreen for 18 minutes of Sound of Metal but his quiet and sterling presence resonates and makes a strong impression. What he accomplishes with this role is simply astonishing. He doesn't have to scream and break dishes to make an indelible character.
Not to get too negative here, and they want to preface this by saying I do like him, but I think Sacha Baron Cohen's streak of nominations for his performance as Abbie Hoffman in Trial of the Chicago 7 is simply disgraceful. It is easily the weakest acting nomination of the year and one of my least favorite acting nominations of the last 20 years. He just doesn't do much in this role and I think the combination of his work in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm this year helped him...but if they were going to have a single actor represent this film, I would've rather it been Mark Rylance or Frank Langella.
Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Should Win: Kaluuya or Paul Raci
Watch out for: Anyone else winning would be an utter shock
Snubbed: I suppose I could say Rylance or Langella but honestly...I am pretty happy with the nominees aside from Cohen even if most of them are truly co-lead.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Youn Yuh-jung, MINARI
2. Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
3. Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
4. Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
5. Amanda Seyfried, MANK
ANALYSIS: Much like Best Actress, this acting race was also a rather crazy mess...but after SAG and BAFTA honoring one particular performance, I think we can safely say we have our winner.
Youn Yuh-jung is now the official frontrunner for the Oscar and I think the fact that she managed to take the BAFTA was rather impressive considering their love for Minari was seemingly less prominent than it has been at award shows over here. I knew a win was possible but I was expecting them to honor one of the actresses from a British film or even Bakalova.
Youn on the path to win the Oscar is not only exciting because of how richly deserving it is, but also because it is truly fantastic that a performance that is primarily in an Asian language (Korean) will finally win an Oscar.
Bakalova managed to overcome the odds to get nominated for such a bold and brash comedic performance and I would say that is a pretty deserving reward in of itself. I think she still remains a runner-up here nonetheless.
As for the rest of them, as the old saying goes: "It's an honor just to be nominated".
Who Will Win: Youn
Who Should Win: Youn
Watch out for: Bakalova
Snubbed: Dominique Fishback, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH; Olivia Cooke, SOUND OF METAL
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas & The Black Messiah
ANALYSIS: My nightmare scenario here is that Trial of the Chicago 7 pulls off an upset like Green Book and wins this award after only really winning the Golden Globe. I don't think its going to happen but if it does....like I said above...god help us all.
I think the CC, WGA, and BAFTA wins for Promising Young Woman show that it'll have the legs to take the Oscar. It also sort of fits the bill of the "edgier, cool" film sweeping in to take Screenplay a la Get Out.
I do really like all of these films represented here...even Trial is at least entertaining enough...but of the other 4, I am more inclined to go for Promising Young Woman for my personal vote too. I do feel there are some questionable issues if you were to study the film on a more analytical basis.
I also feel Sound of Metal is worthy but it also glosses over certain aspects about the character of Lou, played by Olivia Cooke, that I felt would've made the final act of that film more compelling.
Minari and Judas are both good films but I am not sure their scripts were their strongest suit. Of the two, I would say Judas because it was unafraid to express its leftist views....something that was far more refreshing than that of the sometimes flaccid Trial.
Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman but I could get behind any of the others except Trial.
Watch out for: Trial of the Chicago 7...and if there is a longshot upset, Minari
Snubbed: Another Round, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger
ANALYSIS: Both Nomadland and The Father were ineligible at the WGA which allowed Borat Subsequent Moviefilm to pull off the win. I really do not foresee that happening at the Oscars...but I think I am going against Nomadland here. The primary reason for this is that The Father is peaking at the right time along the fact that it just won the BAFTA indicating it should have a strong push from the European/British voting bloc...and frankly, I don't really think anyone can truly say that Nomadland is a film in which its script is its strongest asset.
I would not be surprised if Nomadland dominated the night but I am going to predict The Father because I think it benefits from being the other BP nominee here and from being a more verbose and complex script.
I really don't see any of the others having a shot. It's extremely rare these days for a film to win a Screenplay Oscar when it isn't nominated for Best Picture. In this category, the last film to win without having a BP nom was Gods & Monsters way back in 1999...and even recently in 2019 when movies like Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk had dominated a lot of Screenplay awards, they both lost to a BP nominee: Blackkklansman which also benefited from having an overdue Spike Lee behind it.
Who Will Win: The Father
Who Should Win: The Father
Watch out for: Nomadland
Snubbed: FIRST COW....but honestly, I don't think this is as strong a category much like in 2019.
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