There are about 19-20 different films represented in the eight major categories below that I am about to predict.
Of those films, I only really loved two of them and was mostly positive towards 3-4 more.
The sad thing is that of those very few films, most of them were nominated only for acting and writing...not even for Best Picture.
This is not a year that I am going to be cheering about anytime soon.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Coda
#2 - The Power of the Dog
#3 - Drive My Car
#4 - The Lost Daughter
#5 - Dune
-I do think the tides are changing and that there won't be a huge groundswell to reward Jane Campion with a Screenplay. Frankly, I am fine with that as I felt the Screenplay of Power of the Dog was nothing special. However, if Coda does win as I think it might, I can't exactly jump for joy at that selection either as the film is essentially one cliche story beat after another.
The only film that deserves its nomination here is Drive My Car and part of me is still hoping for a huge upset, but I don't think that will happen. The sad truth is that the film doesn't have the same sort of universal base of fans like Parasite...which also had more of an accessible feel.
Snub wise, this feels like a really weak category this year which has actually be the case for the last couple of years.
One glaring omission that I wish would've popped up here was Passing but that film was basically ignored for most of the season and to Oscar voters, it apparently didn't exist.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Licorice Pizza
#2 - Belfast
#3 - The Worst Person in the World
#4 - Don't Look Up
#5 - King Richard
-Admittedly, I have been writing this post over the course of a few days and what I originally wrote just a couple of days ago has now been completely erased after the WGA awards.
Going into that ceremony, it was of my belief that this category would be won rather handily by Licorice Pizza, especially since what seemed to be its biggest competition (Belfast) was ineligible.
Then...out of nowhere...Don't Look Up won the award which I had originally ranked 5th in the category. Even after its WGA win, I am only putting it in 4th but the truth is I honestly could now see any of the top 4 winning.
I might be a bit too hopeful with The Worst Person in the World especially considering the fact it is FAR AND AWAY the best selection here, but I could see a case where vote splitting and passion (particularly from international voters) could propel it to a win.
Don't Look Up is in an interesting position though as it is easily the most talked about of the nominees but also the one to receive the most vitriol (except for the small group of us who also thought very little of Licorice Pizza). I didn't hate Don't Look Up and actually thought that when it was at its best, it was quite entertaining and I loved some of the dialogue.
The sad irony is that Licorice Pizza still has a strong chance of taking it which would net Paul Thomas Anderson his first Oscar...and considering all of the times in the past where he actually was deserving to take it, how fitting of the Oscars to reward him for the worst work he has done to date.
Kenneth Branagh is also in a prime position to take this too, and he is also Oscar-less. It also doesn't hurt that his film (as bland and banal and sugar-coated as it is...and the complete opposite of what a film occurring during the formation of The Troubles should be) would appeal to the older-average age voter.
So, I am going to stick with predicting Paul Thomas Anderson and I will just view it as honoring his body of work considering if it were up to me, he would've won Oscars for Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, and Phantom Thread.
Best Actress and Best Picture have a little suspense but this category is a case where I don't feel very confident in my selection. I do have a NGNG prediction coming up but here is just simply a category where I think it can go to any film here EXCEPT for King Richard.
However, the real winner here is The Worst Person in the World.
As for snubs:
C'mon C'mon and Titane immediately spring to mind.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1 - Troy Kotsur, CODA
#2 - Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
#3 - Cirian Hinds, Belfast
#4 - Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
#5 - J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
-This might be my least favorite acting category this year because I don't think any of them deserve to be here except for Kotsur.
McPhee could still pull it off but I just didn't see his performance as being as undeniable as Film Twitter or critics made it out to be. Subtlety can work wonders in a performance but I feel like McPhee was mostly buoyed up by a great character rather than a stellar performance.
Hinds is a fantastic character actor but he is barely in Belfast and by the time the film was over, I wondered how he even gained traction for such a brief and nothing role.
Plemons is an interesting case because this role is almost a departure for him because he is known for playing darker and despicable characters and yet, here he is playing a quiet and genteel brother to Benedict Cumberbatch. I feel like I am not as angry by his nod because I love that he is finally getting recognition but, in the end, he wouldn't be on my list.
J.K. Simmons is another brilliant character actor. His win for Whiplash is one of the greatest Oscar wins of all time but the fact he made it in here proves how weak this field was this year.
If there was any justice, we would've seen nods for the following:
Anders Danielsen Lie, The Worst Person in the World
Woody Norman, C'MON C'MON
Masaki Okada, Drive My Car
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
#2 - Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
#3 - Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
#4 - Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
#5 - Judi Dench, Belfast
-I may not like Belfast and I may love Judi Dench but the fact that she got this nomination over her co-star Catriona Balfe is ridiculous. I feel like it is a case of them wanting to nominate a legend based on her name; there is no other reason to justify it.
DeBose has swept through this season and will win for the role of Anita just as her co-star Rita Moreno did for the same role 60 years ago. Will it be deserved? It won't be a bad win, but I can't exactly say she is my choice.
My favorite in the category is actually Jesse Buckley, who plays young Leda (the elder Leda being played by Olivia Colman). Playing such a flawed character, she manages to find ways to remain compelling as opposed to us strictly hating her.
As for Aunjanue Ellis, I may not have cared for King Richard but her presence in the film is very strong, and she stands out in the way that is more interesting than other "supporting wife" roles that are often popular with Academy voters.
This is Dunst's first nomination...which is a shame considering she has done good work over the years and was particularly robbed of a nom and possible win a decade ago for Melancholia. Here, she gets to channel an almost Gena Rowlands type role and wish she had managed to gain a major win or two throughout the season.
Some of the more horrific snubs have to be:
Ruth Negga, Passing
Toko Miura, Drive My Car
Gaby Hoffman, C'mon C'mon
And while some would probably say Martha Plimpton or Ann Dowd from Mass, both of them are lead and have no business being in Supporting.
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BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Will Smith, King Richard
#2 - Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...Boom!
#3 - Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
#4 - Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
#5 - Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
-Right off the bat, I am going to commend Javier Bardem as a truly wonderful actor but the fact that he managed to slip into this race after many film pundits wrote him off...even after Globe and SAG nods...is simply frustrating.
Considering the performances that were left off in place of him (which I will list my snubs in a moment), I find that it is one of the more baffling acting nominations this year.
As for the other 4, I honestly liked all of them. I am a tad iffy on Washington as I felt like he didn't get a good grasp on the role until the end plus he was frequently overshadowed by his co-stars, especially Frances McDormand and Kathryn Hunter.
Cumberbatch might be giving his best performance but for me, my vote would go to Andrew Garfield. His zest and passion in that role have far surpassed any interpretation of that character I have seen done live...although the fact that they truly zeroed in on it being a Jonathan Larson biopic of sorts may have helped there.
Having said all that, Will Smith seems to be approaching the Oscars as his own coronation. The passion for him is there and the sense is that Hollywood will crown one of its most popular stars who has grown so much as an actor in the last 30 years.
I still preferred Smith in the rather hokey but moving The Pursuit of '"Happyness" from 2006 but he does well in this rather problematic role of a tough and overbearing father.
Some of the snubs here that I would've rather seen here are:
Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up
Jason Issacs, Mass
Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon C'mon
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BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
#2 - Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
#3 - Kristen Stewart, Spencer
#4 - Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
#5 - Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
-Every year, the Best Actress category is the one that seems to send online film forums into a tailspin. This year was even more crazy to the point I am not even sure I can fully address every twist and turn but I would say the biggest shocker leading into the Oscars was how Kristen Stewart seemed to be the frontrunner only for her to lose the Globe and then got snubbed by SAG and BAFTA while Lady Gaga steamrolled through the season getting nominated everywhere and even won the prestigious NY Film Critics Circle Award...then she got snubbed for an Oscar nom when many thought the stars were aligning for her to possibly WIN the damn thing.
Then, Jessica Chastain gained traction by winning SAG and CC while Penelope Cruz defied all odds and got nominated despite no precursor love aside from critic circle wins.
Kidman's Globe win seems like a fluke now and with that organization's controversy keeping them at a low profile, I don't suspect she will be winning the Oscar...nor should she.
Olivia Colman is an interesting case because all season, some have considered her the dark horse (even I did at times), but I feel like she will be back in due time with better performances.
The comfortable choice is Chastain and, frankly, I am on the side that really liked her performance...although I did not like her film. Many have accused her of being over-the-top and hammy...ummm...are they not familiar with how Tammy Faye used to act and present herself? I think Chastain did a wonderful job in that.
However, I am joining the group that is going for a NGNG prediction for Cruz.
If anyone is a true passion pick among these nominees, it is Cruz. I could see her getting a good portion of the international voting bloc, but she also has, arguably, the greatest performance of the five.
Granted, art is subjective. Also, we are talking about an organization that looked at a list of films and said "Yes, I am definitely voting for Crash over Brokeback Mountain and Goodnight and Good Luck" or more recently, "Oh my god! Laura Dern was truly outstanding in her role in Marriage Story!".
Not a bad category although the snubs in this category are particularly egregious. Here are some of my personal favorites:
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Martha Plimpton & Ann Dowd, Mass
Agathe Rouselle, Titane
Anamaria Vartolomei, Happening
Tilda Swinton, Memoria
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BEST DIRECTOR:
#1 - Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
#2 - Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
#3 - Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
#4 - Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
#5 - Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Despite the press she has gotten recently for seemingly playing down the success of Venus and Serena Williams (which I honestly don't think she meant to do and her apology was heartfelt), I think Jane Campion has this in the bag even if The Power of the Dog loses Best Picture.
I would say it is as much of a sure thing as Chloe Zhao last year and I don't see anyone taking on her on. It isn't like she can face competition from Coda director Sian Heder since she isn't nominated...nor has anyone come forward as a threat attached to a film with a strong passionate base (a la Bong Joon ho winning over multi-Director winner Sam Mendes).
I honestly think anyone else winning here would be an absolute shock.
I may not have loved Power of the Dog, but I do agree that it was very well made and I also think Campion is a director who deserves this kind of recognition. I actually think she should've won for The Piano nearly 30 years ago.
As for the snubs, the one that got the most press was that of Denis Villeneuve. Frankly, he was worthy to be here over 3 of the nominees so I do consider him an omission.
Other selections I would've loved were:
Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
Mike Mills, C'mon C'mon
Rebecca Hall, Passing
Julia Doucournau, Titane
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BEST PICTURE:
#1 - Coda
#2 - The Power of the Dog
#3 - Belfast
#4 - Licorice Pizza
#5 - Dune
#6 - King Richard
#7 - Don't Look Up
#8 - Drive My Car
#9 - West Side Story
#10 - Nightmare Alley
-Honestly, aside from the top 3 and ranking Nightmare Alley in last, I don't really have much confidence in the ranking of the other nominees. No other films have truly had success at other award shows or shown the strength to pose a real threat...but I suppose if Licorice Pizza does take Original Screenplay then it would make an easy 4th.
The other comment: Look at all the bland selections!
This is one of my least favorite Best Picture lineups of all time. It hasn't been the greatest year for film, but there were enough films out there that could've easily made this a better lineup.
The logistics of this season have been rather messy and I am not even sure I have the strength to try to explain some of these stats and the history behind why it is so crazy.
Coda is in a prime position to win Best Picture despite being a non-player for most of the season thanks to its last minute surge of wins at SAG, PGA, WGA, and its win for Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA where many expected Power of the Dog to win.
Here is the deal:
Coda only has three nominations: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actor...and it could very likely win all three. The crazy thing about this is no film has won with fewer than 5 nominations since the 1930s...and it is particularly rare (almost unheard of) for a film to win without a Director or Editing nomination.
Coda winning would just simply be a stat-breaking game changer of sorts...and I think it could potentially do it because of how the dynamics of award season have changed AND, not to mention, the preferential ballot system that is used to select Best Picture (the only category in which that system is used).
The thing about Power of the Dog is that it seems to be the film that critics have rallied behind...but it is also a film that has managed to alienate some audiences for being too slow. Not that it would really be something to consider, but if you look at something like imdb, the average rating the film has is a 6.9 out of 10...that would make it the lowest rated Best Picture winner since the 60s. Even movies that have had a more volatile response to winning like Crash or Green Book have higher ratings on imdb than that.
However, last year I would've said that Nomadland seemed like an odd film to win on a preferential ballot...but it did...and the Academy has shown slight progressive steps moving towards bolder choices (such as Moonlight or Parasite winning) but then you have a win like Green Book which makes me think that it is possible that Coda could still sneak in.
I am going to predict Coda but honestly I just don't care if I am right or wrong.
Aside from Drive My Car (and to a lesser extent, Dune), I really really do not care much for any of the other films. I have zero passion for them and it is kind of crazy to think how critical I was last year at first of the film output but the even bleaker circumstances of Covid last year allowed for films to slip in that may not have otherwise such as Sound of Metal.
2021 was simply not the greatest year for film and I am very pensive about what 2022 will bring. If it is any worse or about equal to this year, I might just have another slump at caring about movies like I did for the first half of the 2010s.
Time will soon tell.
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