For the last few years, even dating back to my old blog, I always posted my final predictions for who/what I suspected to get an Academy Award/Oscar nomination.
This year, I have been relatively disengaged from this process. I have been following it to some degree but my passion for a lot of the films in consideration is not as strong. This is a significant blow because I was mostly so disappointed with 2021 that I was hoping for a better 2022...and sadly, I think 2022 might be worse.
I will comment on these nominations and point out any interesting statistics...and in addition to that, I will comment on any major snubs or surprises or frustrating inclusions.
So, here are the big 8 categories:
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
THOUGHTS: Despite the fact that I enjoyed Top Gun: Maverick, I am bit unsure if I feel its Screenplay deserves an Oscar nod...which is a slot that a lot of people predicted would go to The Whale.
As it stands, I think that Women Talking might manage to eek out a win here. It seemed like such a sure thing early on, but its award season trajectory has been such a misfire.
I feel like, as of this moment, it has the best shot to still take this...and its corresponding BP nod does help as no film has won an Adapted Screenplay Oscar with a BP nod since Gods & Monsters in 1999.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fablemans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
THOUGHTS: These five slots seemed to be what were predicted by nearly everybody...though I feel like some hoped that Charlotte Wells would slip in for Aftersun.
This race is going to come down to The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once...and I truly feel like it can go either way.
Both of them are frontrunners for Best Picture, although the latter has the major advantage right now. I personally hope that they will use this category as a means to honor McDonagh as I am sort of suspecting that The Daniels will take Director.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Kuan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
THOUGHTS: I will have to admit that I have not seen Causeway yet, but I have been very familiar with the praise and acclaim that Henry has been getting for this performance.
Many have been bemoaning that he was missing out in favor of contenders like Eddie Redmayne, but he managed to pull through here.
The nomination of Judd Hirsch is interesting. Earlier in the season, it seemed like he and his co-star Paul Dano would both be nominated and then it seemed like Dano had the edge.
In some ways, it feels a little like Belfast last year where Catriona Balfe got nominated everywhere and then got snubbed while they nominated legend Judi Dench for her much smaller performance.
However, unlike Dench, I really liked Hirsch's brief performance and while I doubt he'd make my personal lineup, I do like seeing him here. His scene was one of the better things about The Fablemans.
Frankly, even though he is a borderline lead, Kuan is winning this and I am okay with it...although if I am being honest, I would be happy with one of the Banshees men winning...particularly Keoghan.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
THOUGHTS: We will see what SAG and BAFTA bring us but as of now, I sort of think that Bassett will take SAG and the Oscar but Condon will take BAFTA leaving some slight suspicion beforehand.
Bassett not having an Oscar seems like a crime. She should've won in 1994 for What's Love Got To Do With It? and the fact that it was the only nomination she has received until today is another crime.
It also seems sad that she will win a "career Oscar" for a solid but not amazing performance in a Marvel movie...but I will just try my best to close my eyes and pretend it is for something better like when Laura Dern won for Marriage Story...though Bassett's win would be more deserved than that one.
As much as FilmTwitter loves to bash her, I am very happy for Curtis to receive this long overdue nomination. She should have at least two for Trading Places and True Lies and maybe even a third for A Fish Called Wanda. I did love the energy she brought to this role, plus her scenes in which she played the Hot-Dog fingered lover of Michelle Yeoh were a lot of fun.
Hsu getting in will make a lot of people happy, but maybe the fact that I was not as over the moon with the film makes me less enthused with her. I just didn't find her to be that remarkable, nor did she make me care much about her character even though I knew I was supposed to.
I still think Kerry Condon deserves this and while she was the critical favorite, it seems like the televised awards are turning their attention to Bassett.
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BEST ACTOR:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
THOUGHTS: Nothing really shocking here. Some thought that Mescal was vulnerable, and he sort of was...but I think he made a solid case even though Aftersun was not gaining traction in other categories.
Nighy was expected, but I can't really comment on him as I have not seen his movie yet. All I know is that it is an English-language adaptation of Kurosawa's Ikiru.
At this point, you can really call it a three-horse race.
I'd say it is Farrell vs. Fraser with Butler as a strong dark horse. A lot of it depends on how things go at SAG and BAFTA...but if I were to predict now, I would say SAG goes to Fraser while Farrell gets the BAFTA...and if that is true, I really truly think you could make a strong case for either.
Since Banshees is more of a BP heavyweight, it could tip things into Farrell's favor, but I also think Fraser has the better narrative.
Butler, on the other hand, fits the overblown typical narrative of a biopic performance that Oscar voters normally love...and if I am being honest, he is far better than Rami Malek was in Bohemian Rhapsody.
I do like how this one is a little bit of a race at the moment, so that is rather exciting.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
THOUGHTS: Despite the mostly strong lineup we have here, I am rather upset.
The fact that they snubbed Danielle Deadwyler for her work in Till is truly a shame. I would even go as far to call it one of the worst snubs I have ever seen for a performance during my lifetime.
And this wasn't a case of someone being a longshot...she managed to get CC, SAG, and BAFTA nods and while not necessarily a lock, I feel like most people felt comfortable enough that she would make it in.
Then you have Michelle Williams.
Earlier in the season, many suspected that not only would she campaign and be nominated for Supporting Actress, a lot of the buzz was that she would finally win an Oscar. Things changed when she suddenly got promoted to Lead and it seemed as though she might even get snubbed.
That only seemed to become more of a reality because she got snubbed by both SAG and BAFTA which was very crucial as those are arguably the two most important precursors which represent the actual industry.
Perhaps the most fascinating inclusion in this race is Riseborough, but honestly, I sort of expected it...or at the very least, I am not super shocked.
In the last few weeks, many celebrities via Twitter began praising Riseborough's work in the little-seen To Leslie and felt it was a performance that everyone needed to see...and the grass-roots effort seemed to surge from there.
I do have access to a copy of To Leslie and I intend to watch it this weekend, but of the clips I have seen, Riseborough does seem to be giving it her all. There have been comparisons to her work mirroring that of Gena Rowlands, particularly in A Woman Under the Influence.
I am going to say that if her performance comes anywhere near close to THAT, she should be winning in a landslide.
As it stands, the race does seem to be leaning in Blanchett's favor and it would be her second Best Actress win and third win overall.
Would that be a deserved win? Overall yes. I actually do prefer her to Yeoh, but I sort of like the idea of Yeoh sweeping in for the victory. It would be a career win and also for a good performance.
Then you have Ana de Armas, and while I do not like Blonde as a film much at all, she truly was compelling in it. I still think Williams is the real culprit that should be bumped in favor of putting in Deadwyler, but I do think the inclusion of Riseborough (a very wonderful and underrated actress) is an exciting change of pace as these out-of-nowhere (of sorts) nominations could become more of a reality rather than the repetitive cult nature of nominating the same performances as other voting bodies.
I think I will do an additional separate post that will go more in depth regarding the Andrea Riseborough push and the controversy it is starting to cause online.
Be on the look out for that soon!
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schienert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tar
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
THOUGHTS:
I guess you could say the "surprise" here is Ruben Ostlund, although he certainly seemed plausible consider the support his film was getting along with the fact the Academy does like to honor one artsy/indie/foreign director each year. I sort of thought it would be Edward Berger after the massive surge that All Quiet on the Western Front received, but I suppose Ostlund is not surprising in the grand scheme. I originally thought Park Chan-wook would be that candidate, but after his film didn't gain much traction (AND got snubbed in International Feature today), it seemed like more of a longshot.
I do think we are going to be looking at a victory for The Daniels here...unless the DGA throws a curveball and gives it to Spielberg. Granted, Spielberg was snubbed at BAFTA so it could still go to The Daniels even in that scenario.
I suspect that if it isn't The Daniels, it'll be Spielberg in a boost of sentimental support.
It does seem like the quick surge that Avatar received faded fast and lost momentum for James Cameron, who originally seemed like a fairly sure bet. I personally couldn't care less, but I am just being snobbish there.
No women this year after we had two years in a row of women winning...and sadly, Sarah Polley never gained traction for Women Talking. Hopefully, justice will be served for her in Adapted Screenplay.
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BEST PICTURE:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
THOUGHTS: No major surprises here.
I would say if any of them falls under that category, it would've been Triangle of Sadness but it didn't seem implausible.
Women Talking was on the brink, but since I am still holding out hope that it'll be a clear winner in Adapted Screenplay, I figured it would make it in for the 10th slot.
I think the one film that seemed to have a chance to slip in here was Babylon, but for some reason, I just felt like that wasn't going to happen after how majorly it bombed at the box office and its critical response was a little less than passionate.
As it stands right now, I feel like the clear frontrunner is Everything Everywhere All at Once. I just...I am glad to see such an unconventional movie have this kind of traction for awards, but by the same token, I just didn't have much of a connection to the film.
I admired certain aspects of it, particularly its cast, but I just did not find it to be the amazing film that many seemed to make it out to be.
I do think the runner-up would have to be The Banshees of Inisherin...but could it actually still take the top prize?
I would say it is possible, but that could be because I have a bit of a bias as I actually DID REALLY REALLY LIKE Banshees. A lot of it is going to come down to how the guilds vote but I feel like both it and EEAAO could do well on a preferential ballot system.
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FINAL THOUGHTS:
I will say it again.....
DANIELLE. DEADWYLER.
What a horrible and unforgivable snub.
The sad truth is that she was never going to win, but I really didn't think she would actually get snubbed.
And on top of that, they also snubbed Viola Davis for The Women King, who managed to get in at every major precursor she needed. Had Davis made it in, it would've been her FIFTH nomination which would've given her more nominations than any other African American actress...or any other female POC.
I do know Davis will be back...and I think Deadwyler could still nab a great role...but it still seems like a true disgrace that they missed out.
The Andrea Riseborough nomination is going to get a lot of press, especially in relation to those snubs, but I will save more of my thoughts on that for another post that I hope to have up sometime in the next couple of days.
In the grand scheme of things, they made some interesting and inspired choices with some of the acting nominations...but a lot of that gets dampened by the Danielle Deadwyler snub.
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