I had previously made a post about final predictions a few days ago, but I didn't really feel that great about what I wrote...plus I might want to tweak some of my predictions at the last minute.
Here is the simple truth:
I have already made it abundantly clear that I was not pleased with 2022 as a year of film...nor do I find the process of award season to be overly important. It is simply highly political and often benefits people who don't truly need the benefits.
Sadly though...I find the sport of awards prognosticating to be fun in spite of myself.
And this year...I don't exactly have a lot of films or performances in the ring that I am passionately rooting for...or I find myself liking films that may only win 1-2 Oscars or get shut out completely.
I am coming into this Oscar ceremony more for the joy of simply not knowing who may win in a lot of the bigger categories.
For the sake of time, I am only going to address the big 8 categories:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST PICTURE
And unlike my last post, which I did delete, I am going to also post a ranking of likelihood that I think the person or film may win...BUT since some of these are toss-ups, I will reiterate in those cases.
Let us begin with those ever important and often undervalued screenwriters.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Women Talking
#2 - All Quiet on the Western Front
#3 - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
#4 - Top Gun: Maverick
#5 - Living
While Sarah Polley has won the CC and WGA for Women Talking, there IS a scenario where I can see All Quiet basically...forgive the pun...quietly sneaking in and taking this.
My only basis for this is that it did do SO well at BAFTA and it could garner more support as being a film that received many more nominations that Women Talking.
IF that scenario were to occur, I would begin to wonder if some kind of crazy surge will occur that might allow All Quiet to win Best Picture thanks to the preferential ballot.
Am I going to predict that? No.
However, IF All Quiet wins here...I might have a tad more suspense for the Best Picture category.
I did like All Quiet, but it would honestly be a shame for Sarah Polley to lose this. Her script, which did include a lot of great dialogue from Miriam Toews' novel, is just simply the best choice here.
I also enjoyed Glass Onion and especially Top Gun, but I am not sure that either really warrant an Oscar for their scripts.
Truthfully, I thought Kazuo Ishiguro did a splendid job adapted Kurosawa's Ikiru and I would therefore rank Living as my second favorite in this category...not that I matter since I don't vote for this damn thing.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - The Banshees of Inisherin
#2 - Everything Everywhere All at Once
#3 - Tar
#4 - The Fabelmans
#5 - Triangle of Sadness
I am going to admit that this has become a bit of a gamble. My hope was that the true great dialogue of Banshees would lead to a win for McDonagh, but considering The Daniels won at CC and at WGA (for which McDonagh was ineligible), it seems like the surge may work in their favor.
The precedent for that is there since McDonagh actually lost to Jordan Peele for Get Out when he had been up for Three Billboards...and as popular as Get Out was, it doesn't have the same passionate and rabid base that EEAAO does.
PLUS...Banshees is not a factor in the Best Picture race anymore, whereas some people thought Three Billboards could still win Screenplay and Picture on Oscar night.
My own personal bias is making me take a slight leap here, but my hope is that the voters will do their best to spread the wealth and give McDonagh the Oscar he deserves.
The other 3 simply have no shot.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1 - Ke Huy Kuan, EEAAO
#2 - Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
#3 - Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
#4 - Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
#5 - Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
I am not going to spend a lot of time on this one. Out of all the acting categories, this is the only one that seems to be truly locked up.
Sure, Keoghan may have won the BAFTA but those British voters clearly preferred Inisherin and All Quiet as opposed to EEAAO and they have had those wins over the years where a "home-turf" selection manages to eek out the win but doesn't become competitive for the Oscar...much like Dev Patel in Lion for example.
Ke Huy Kuan has the passion, the narrative, the big film of the ceremony, and also...I have to admit...a very fun performance so even if I loved Keoghan and Gleeson and Henry (which, by the way, that was such an inspired and wonderful nomination!!!!), I will be very happy to see Quan on that stage.
As for Judd Hirsch, he did as much as he could with his cameo...and it is amazing to see him as an Oscar nominee 42 years after his nod for Ordinary People...but I am not sure he should've made it in here.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
#2 - Jamie Lee Curtis, EEAAO
#3 - Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
#4 - Stephanie Hsu, EEAAO
#5 - Hong Chau, The Whale
And now we come to what might be the most exciting acting award of the night.
I could see a serious path for Condon and Curtis and Bassett...and frankly...I wouldn't even be THAT shocked if Hsu somehow pulled it off.
Sadly, Hong Chau will be sitting this one out...but she is such a wonderful actress and I actually feel like her performance in The Whale was one of its best aspects...and the film itself was a chore in most other ways.
Hsu seems to be the performance that the internet has embraced...but we also saw how that translated to Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman. It felt like she was going to sweep through that season only for her to barely get any major wins and then she lost to Frances McDormand for what was her THIRD acting Oscar.
I do think it is unlikely for Hsu but I am not ruling it out.
I think Bassett does have a chance even though she lost the SAG, which many did suspect she would easily win.
Bassett isn't in a Best Picture nominee, but her film does have multiple nominations and she is a veteran who is known for losing an Oscar for a truly stunning performance: Tina Turner in What's Love Got to Do with It?
Bassett didn't win a true industry award, but I think she does have a shot...even if she will face backlash for being in a Marvel film.
I think the fact Curtis won SAG doesn't seem that shocking in hindsight and I truly think she can pull off the win tonight.
Here is my hot take: I ACTUALLY DID NOT HATE CURTIS IN THAT ROLE.
I am not saying people necessarily hate her performance, but they don't find her worthy for any awards recognition...plus, she has been a THIRSTY campaigner. I found her performance to be a lot of fun and in terms of career wins, it would be better than the work that netted Oscars for the likes of Laura Dern or Don Ameche...or even if they had actually gave Lauren Bacall the Oscar for The Mirror Has Two Faces.
My favorite in the category is Condon...and while some do like to bash her as being a "nothing" candidate, I loved her in this role...and I think her win at BAFTA could show that she may have enough support to eek out a win in this divided race.
There is also a chance this will become the only place Banshees can win an Oscar...which hurts...but it also feels weird that she could become the only place it wins considering the work of her co-stars and also the Screenplay itself.
Part of me wants to change my prediction to Curtis because her exposure seems to have peaked right as voting was occurring...
But I also think Bassett had the better performance of the two so if a veteran win were to occur, I would rather it be here...not to mention Bassett should've already won for playing Tina Turner.
Sigh...I will just stick with Condon...
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BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
#2 - Austin Butler, Elvis
#3 - Brendan Fraser, The Whale
#4 - Bill Nighy, Living
#5 - Paul Mescal, Aftersun
I am REALLY going down with the ship with this prediction.
I know I shouldn't let the anonymous ballots that have been released sway me...not to mention my own love of the film and his performance...but I can't help but shake this weird scenario where Farrell had built up enough good will and ends up taking this due to vote splitting between the two other major candidates: Fraser and Butler.
I HAD been predicting Butler following his Globe and BAFTA wins, not to mention the fact he is in a Best Picture nominee.
For whatever reason, being in a Best Picture nominee seems to benefit Actor winners more often than those in the Actress category. Not to mention, voters seem to LOVE their biopic roles, and this is one of those transformative performances that they eat up with a spoon.
Interestingly enough, the parallels of the 2008/9 Best Actor race are strong here.
Brendan Fraser is Mickey Rourke: a veteran actor who had disappeared for a while and came back in an emotional role in a Darren Aronofsky film that got left off the lists for Best Picture and Screenplay
Butler is Sean Penn. An actor playing a real-life figure (Harvey Milk) in what is also a Best Picture nominee.
The interesting twist here is that Rourke won the same awards Butler did (Globe and BAFTA) while Fraser won the same awards Penn did (CC and SAG).
It is mainly the Best Picture/biopic role stat that makes think Butler would be the more logical choice but I am still not ruling out Fraser either.
I am hopedicting Farrell and my brain predicts Butler while I feel like Fraser might have enough to break the stats.
I will just sit back and enjoy the ride.
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BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO
#2 - Cate Blanchett, Tar
#3 - Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
#4 - Ana de Armas, Blonde
#5 - Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
This is going to be another tense nailbiter...and I love it.
However...things might get a bit precarious if it goes a certain way.
All season, it seemed as though we were heading towards Cate Blanchett getting her 3rd Oscar...but the passion for EEAAO and the final surge of love toward Yeoh after her SAG win makes me think, along with many others, that she can pull this off.
Her win would also be historic as she would be the 1st Asian woman to win a Lead Oscar and also only the SECOND woman of color to take the prize.
One thing I think people need to keep in mind is that Oscar voters don't often tend to be that sympathetic when it comes to these types of narratives. If they think someone gave the best performance, they will give them their vote.
Look at Frances McDormand winning her third Oscar despite the fact she didn't campaign AND for a role in which she was very subdued and (in my opinion) not a role that I felt warranted a 3rd Oscar.
Blanchett does have the performance...she won many major critics' awards, and she won the Globe, BAFTA, and CC.
Although, Blanchett herself won these same three awards in 1999 for Elizabeth only to lose the Oscar to Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love...who won the Comedy Globe and SAG and was in the eventual BP winner...just like Michelle Yeoh.
Blanchett herself has been campaigning but seems far more willing to shine a light on her fellow nominees.
I think Yeoh will pull this off, but I really will not be surprised in the slightest if Blanchett's name is called. If that does happen, I suspect a lot of the internet will erupt in fury.
I think a lot of the problem with this is that Yeoh is definitely strong in EEAAO. There are clearly many people that feel this is a win that would be based on merit AND it serves as a way for the Academy to finally honor another actress of color.
Art is subjective...but I have to say that Blanchett does have the performance. She is my favorite in the category, but Yeoh would be my 2nd favorite.
Either way, I am going to be happy...
...well sort of, because I will never forgive them for snubbing Danielle Deadwyler.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
#1 - The Daniels, EEAAO
#2 - Todd Field, Tar
#3 - Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
#4 - Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
#5 - Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
If there was a scenario where the preferential ballot led to another film winning in a major upset, I think we can still count on The Daniels winning here.
The only other people here who seem to have a trajectory...if you can call it that...are Field and Spielberg.
In the case of Todd Field, he seems to have gotten a lot of "auteur" passion while Spielberg has a lot of sentiment on his side because it has been 25 years since he won an Oscar and the fact his film is deeply personal to him.
I think its safe to say that the Spielberg narrative died down fast after his Globes win and I still think that the passion for EEAAO won't be enough for Field to recover from.
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BEST PICTURE:
#1 - Everything Everywhere All at Once
#2 - All Quiet on the Western Front
#3 - The Banshees of Inisherin
#4 - Tar
#5 - The Fabelmans
#6 - Top Gun: Maverick
#7 - Women Talking
#8 - Elvis
#9 - Triangle of Sadness
#10 - Avatar: The Way of Water
This is a case where after the top 3, I really just kind of hastily ranked the rest because I feel like none of them have an inkling of a chance at Best Picture...even though I think Women Talking will take Screenplay.
I already expressed this when I discussed the Screenplay categories, but if All Quiet somehow does win there, I would just slightly find myself intrigued at it squeaking out an upset...ESPECIALLY since I would argue it isn't exactly a Screenplay that has another fresh or exciting to say. War movies just aren't known for their vibrant or verbose screenplays.
Even if Banshees managed to win in Screenplay over EEAAO, I think it is less likely that it would win in Picture. I get the sense that Banshees is a little more divisive and a little too weird for some...even if it is actually a lot tamer than anything that McDonagh has ever released either as a film or a play.
There is a very strong chance that EEAAO could win 3 Acting Oscars tonight...which would put it in an elite group of only two other films: A Streetcar Named Desire and Network.
Strangely, neither of those films ended up winning Best Picture...but I think that winning acting awards, potentially winning Screenplay, winning directing, and a tech prize or two will be enough of a case that EEAAO will win this even if All Quiet takes Adapted Screenplay.
ALSO - EEAAO swept all of the major guilds awards: PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA and a slew of the techs.
Only 5 films have managed to do this prior to this year...and of those films, only 1 (Apollo 13) had a problem on Oscar night...see what I did there? ;-)
Ha. Ha.
But yes, everything is pointing to that Everywhere film taking it all...and despite the fact that I didn't like it anywhere near as much as most of the world seems to, I have to admit that I love such a different kind of film getting embraced in such a manner.
At any rate, that is all I have for now. I am sure I will have another post up either tomorrow or Tuesday discussing my thoughts on the ceremony itself.
And with that, I leave you with the truly disastrous opening number from the 1989 Academy Awards where Snow White and Rob Lowe "sang" amongst dancing tables and other bizarre little tidbits.
It is worth sitting through the cringe for 11 minutes...and also worth reading more about online so check that out!
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