*As of this writing, I still have sadly not seen The Secret Agent*
The crazy thing about award season is how for a snapshot of time, it may seem like the tides are going in one direction only for them to switch later on. At that point, it seems crazy that you ever thought it was going the other way.
Last year, due to the devastation of the wildfires, there was a significant gap in between the Globes and when the Guilds were holding their ceremony. When The Brutalist and Emilia Perez won the GG top prizes, it seemed like the tide was turning in their direction. In the case of Emilia Perez, which that film can go suck a lemon, some did dismiss it as being embraced for being an international feature and that maybe they just didn't respond to the film that had been considered the frontrunner: Anora.
I had suspected that Anora could still pull off the PGA win and maybe the win at CC and become viable again...and as it ended up panning out, Sean Baker won DGA in a bit of an upset along with the film taking CC and PGA and WGA. In one fell swoop, Anora overtook the odds, although some thought Conclave would put up a fight.
This year, I am not sure we are going to see that kind of shift. If we do, I think we will all be floored.
I can't exactly say I am upset because the frontrunner, One Battle After Another, is a fantastic film plus it also doesn't hurt that Paul Thomas Anderson is so insanely overdue, so it works not just as a career win, but his work on the film is stellar.
I think we could be in for a boring season honestly. However, we've had a couple hectic ones recently, so it was bound to happen that we'd get one like this again. We COULD see a couple of interesting shifts in the Supporting races, but we will get to that.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1 - One Battle After Another
2 - Hamnet
3 - Frankenstein
4 - Bugonia
5 - No Other Choice
A semi-quick history lesson before diving into the category.
When it comes to sweeps these days, it seems as though the days of a film winning 8, 9, 10+ Oscars may be over. We've managed to get two films recently winning 7 (Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer) while last year, Anora won 5 but they were a whopping 5.
The Academy gave Sean Baker FOUR Oscars, which is a record for the most a person has won for a single film, and it is tied with most Oscars won in a night along with Walt Disney.
However, that fourth win for Baker was in Best Editing, a category that had been all over the place and didn't have a true consensus winner since a lot of the precursors went for the snubbed Challengers. While Conclave had an edge after winning at BAFTA, it seemed as if Anora's Oscar win was one born from passion and a down-the-ballot vote.
What I am getting at is that there seems to be a feeling every year that perhaps the Academy will want to spread the wealth and yet we get these cases where they reward Sean Baker with 4 Oscars.]
I was thinking early on in the season that if PTA was going to be winning Picture and Director for One Battle that maybe Chloe Zhao could get recognized here in Adapted Screenplay. Plus, it just felt more like a Screenplay movie in comparison...but it seems like PTA may just do a clean sweep. Honestly, I will accept it gladly because the film is great and he is long overdue.
I honestly don't see a path for any of these other contenders beyond Zhao overtaking PTA.
I do want to state that I actually really loved the screenplay to Bugonia and think it would be a great dark horse contender. I think as great as the script to No Other Choice is, I was more wowed by Park Chan-wook's directing there.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1 - Sinners
2 - It Was Just an Accident
3 - Sentimental Value
4 - Marty Supreme
5 - The Secret Agent
I feel like our top 3 are locked in, and I feel pretty good about It Was Just an Accident as well. It's that last slot that proves to be a bit tricky. Truthfully, I had been holding out hope for Sorry Baby after it got the surprise CC nom. It also helped that the decline of Jay Kelly freed open the spot many expected it would get.
With the surge that The Secret Agent seems to be getting right as Oscar voting begins, I am going to predict for it to sneak in. However, there is even a world where we could see Weapons sneak in here or perhaps another longshot would be Blue Moon.
However, it seems to be on track for Sinners to take this prize. With all the critical hosannahs and audience approval, it seems like the one place where the film will win a major prize.
I do want to say that I personally really loved the Screenplays for Marty Supreme and It Was Just an Accident and I wish they could also gain some traction.
Sentimental Value is sort of the surprise in a way because I suspected it would have more of a presence in this race, but it hasn't really won anything.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1 - Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
2 - Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
3 - Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
4 - Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
5 - Paul Mescal, Hamnet
What a bizarre category!
Really early in the year, people talked about this as being the year that Adam Sandler would finally get nominated for an Oscar for his work in Jay Kelly, and sure, he may have a slight chance of sneaking in but considering how much the film has blanked and how he didn't even get an Actors nom, I would say he is out.
Then - Sentimental Value premiered at Cannes and early word was that Stellan Skarsgard was wonderful and became the predicted frontrunner.
That was followed by One Battle After Another getting released in late September and suddenly, everyone seemed to think Sean Penn had what it takes to win a whopping THIRD Oscar for his villainous Col. Lockjaw.
People talked about his co-star Benicio del Toro as being a delightful scene stealer acting as the calm breeze next to the manic Leonardo DiCaprio, but not everyone seemed to buy into a narrative for him. That is until he began sweeping all the critics' prizes at an insane degree.
We then get to CC where people suspected del Toro would take it only for, out of nowhere, Jacob Elordi to take it for Frankenstein.
Then we get to the Globes, which have a heavy international influence. Would Elordi win again? It is clear that Frankenstein was well liked enough by the HFPA. Would del Toro rebound here? It has been 25 years since his last Oscar winning quest with Traffic and it is clear he had some passion around him. Or - would Skarsgard win as a means to honor a great veteran actor for a sterling performance in one of the most acclaimed international features of the year?
Skarsgard, after all that, came back to win at the Globes AFTER he was shut out of SAG...sorry the Actor Awards...and now, I think that despite the snub there, he could still win at BAFTA and then be very viable for the Oscar.
Paul Mescal is just along for the ride here, but I would be a bit surprised if he got left out. The only people I could see potentially showing up here aside from Sandler would be Miles Caton or Delroy Lindo for Sinners.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1 - Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
2 - Amy Madigan, Weapons
3 - Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4 - Inga Ibdsdotter Lilleas, Sentimental Value
5 - Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme
Yes, I am indeed predicting Ariana Grande to get snubbed. Honestly, the journey that film has taken has been rather crazy considering how the early buzz seemed as though the film stuck the landing if not even exceeded expectations only for the reviews to come out and faltered. She went from being the person a lot of people thought would win to suddenly dropping off the lists entirely and seeming like an afterthought nominee.
Here's the thing: she still could totally get the nomination, but we do have contenders each year who make multiple precursors and still miss out on the nod. Just one major example that got a lot of attention was Margot Robbie for Barbie. The interesting thing about the Margot Robbie omission is that a lot of pundits, myself included, thought she was going to get left off the list anyway because the Actress category that year was STACKED. Then, when she kept getting nominated everywhere, many of us felt that we were wrong and put her back on the list...only for her to get snubbed.
I will say the idea of Grande being in Supporting is somehow even more egregious this year than it was last year as she is a bit more prominent in For Good and has more of an emotional arc. I personally really liked her work in it, but I do get this vibe that she could be the "surprise" snub.
I feel like Taylor and Madigan are locked in, and I am going to say that Mosaku is close to a lock. I feel pretty good about Lilleas too even though Sentimental Value was completely shut out at Actors. I could even see a world where she could win at BAFTA and then she'd have a dark horse push to win.
I am predicting A'zion to sneak in after she got the Actors nom, but she is certainly by no means a sure thing. I do, however, feel she really deserves this nomination, and I hope she gets it.
Madigan is the one that is really interesting here because she has built up so much goodwill and a profile, not to mention winning a ton of critics' prizes and the CC. However, it is a horror performance and the stigma against the genre is still there.
When Weapons got nominated for Best Picture at PGA, that does show that there is an outside chance it could slip into Best Picture at the Oscars. It's even on the brink in Original Screenplay and Casting...so if by chance it does score those nods, I could see Madigan becoming more competitive.
There is definitely a world where I could see Madigan make a rebound at SAG and lose the BAFTA to Taylor or someone else which will still make her viable...it's just that Taylor being in the Best Picture frontrunner gives her a bit of an edge.
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BEST ACTOR:
1 - Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2 - Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
3 - Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
4 - Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5 - Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
This race does seem to be shaping up to be the coronation for Timothee Chalamet.
It does seem like his insanely cocky attitude is cooling off, which is a good thing because frankly he was becoming insufferable. Here's the honest truth though: he is very deserving in Marty Supreme, especially considering how much of a cad his character is and yet he still keeps him compelling, and you even find yourself oddly rooting for him in moments.
What is kind of incredible about this category is how strong it is.
You have an actor like Michael B. Jordan who has been doing good work for so many years. Let's not forget his turn as Wallace during the first season of The Wire, which is where I first remember seeing him. I do think there is a world where he could upset Chalamet at the Actors, especially since Chalamet won there last year. If he still did win, it would be a first and it would clearly show the passion for his work. I don't feel as bad for Jordan though, I still think the best is yet to come for him.
DiCaprio may not be giving his absolute best work in One Battle After Another, but to be honest, I loved him in it. While he may not be as dominant a lead as someone like...well...basically all of the main contenders here, I love what he does with his role of Bob. The exasperation, the manic nature, him trying to capture the energy of his younger revolutionary days...it is a great performance.
As I warned at the beginning, I have not seen The Secret Agent yet, but I do suspect the surge of the film and Moura's GG win will put him on a similar path to a nod like Fernanda Torres last year...even down to him not having Actor or BAFTA nominations.
I will say though, I do think there is a world where Ethan Hawke could miss out on a nomination here and that would be a shame because he is so transformative as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon. His mannerisms and even how he alters his voice feel so different from anything we've seen him do. Part of me actually does wish he could be more in contention to win because it was a true tour-de-force.
As for who could potentially take a slot here, frankly I would love to see Jesse Plemons slip in for Bugonia, which is his best work to date, and I admittedly liked him more than Stone if I had to pick an MVP. His surprise Actors nod does show there is a possibility it could happen.
The only other person who could slip in here that wouldn't overly shock me is Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams, but I don't think anyone else has a chance. I do wish Lee Byung-hun had more of a path to a nod for No Other Choice, but it does seem like that film is sadly fading.
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BEST ACTRESS:
1 - Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2 - Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You
3 - Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4 - Emma Stone, Bugonia
5 - Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
While you could argue that Chalamet is quickly approaching lock status, I do think Jessie Buckley is the biggest lock of the acting categories. While I do agree with some other pundits that I could see her possibly losing at the Actors, I still think she will win there too. I would also be floored if she lost BAFTA considering she is an Irish actress in a film playing Shakespeare's wife. So even if she lost SAG to someone like Rose Byrne, I still think she would take the Oscar.
I think what really hurts Rose Byrne is sort of the same thing that hurt Glenn Close back in 2019 for The Wife. Her film is not going to get nominated in any other category and is also a film that will be weird enough that I could see it turning some voters off. Having said that, she is wonderful in the film and in a just world, if someone is worthy to win for their film as its only nomination, that is how it should go down.
Reinsve's nod seems secure even with the Actors snub, because it is pretty apparent that they rarely nominate performances from foreign films...even though they are portions of the film in which she speaks English. I am still happy to see her get the recognition after she didn't take off for The Worst Person in the World.
Emma Stone is a bit of an Academy darling considering she managed to win 2 Lead Actress Oscars before even turning 35. She does an amazing job in Bugonia, but I have been a tad surprised at how the film has managed to stick around as I thought it wasn't getting much buzz. In this case, she is just happy to be here.
I am going to predict Chase Infiniti for the last spot mainly due to the fact that she is in the big awards juggernaut this year and she will likely coattail. The thing about her being in Lead is clearly due to the fact that they were looking to ensure that Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall would have a better shot to fit in the crowded Supporting Actress category. Infiniti, in that comparison, would be the defacto female lead but she is very much a supporting player as well. Truthfully, I was a fan of her performance but I think she belongs in Supporting.
Who else could sneak in?
Cynthia Erivo is done. After not getting nominated at CC or Actors combined with the fact Wicked is as dead as Elphaba supposedly is, this is not going to be her time.
As much as I would like to see someone like Tessa Thompson for Hedda or Eva Victor for Sorry Baby, neither made any traction aside from their Golden Globe nods. While those were richly deserved, it felt like the contender pool was a lot smaller in the Drama categories. I feel the same about Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love as well, which might even be the best performance of her career to date.
Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee is actually one I have not seen yet, and that also seems to be a major reason why she keeps getting snubbed as Searchlight, a studio that is normally known for being brilliant with campaigning, dropped the ball with promoting the film. It also doesn't help that the film itself has gotten divisive responses, but even those acknowledge Seyfried is amazing here. Earlier in the season, some felt she was going to be the biggest competition to Buckley.
The one I think has the best shot of getting into the race is Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, which I also haven't seen yet but by all accounts, she is the best thing about it. I suppose I wouldn't be shocked if she takes the last slot instead.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
1 - Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2 - Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3 - Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
4 - Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5 - Kleber Mendonca Filho, The Secret Agent
Honestly - how this category will shape out is one of the bigger mysteries that I will be curious about. The Directing Branch of the Academy is certainly known for being a tad more highbrow in that they will throw in nominations for contenders who weren't getting as readily embraced by prior voting bodies like Triet and Glazer in 2023, Ostlund in 2022, Vinterberg in 2020...so basically more international selections.
This year, the international slate is perhaps the strongest it has ever been which makes me wonder how exactly it will pan out. Earlier in the season, it seemed as though Jafar Panahi was going to be the candidate who might give PTA a run for his money, but then somewhere along the way, it died down and the critical surge seemed to shift to Ryan Coogler as a runner-up.
The other international director who has been getting nominated a bit more in the precursors is Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, but as you can see, I am not predicting him. Honestly, if he were to make the final 5, I would not be the least bit surprised but instead, I am going out on a limb and predicting Filho.
My reasoning behind this is that The Secret Agent is picking up steam whereas It Was Just an Accident seems to be fading. I mentioned Ostlund getting nominated for 2022's Triangle of Sadness which was that year's Palme d'Or winner. While The Secret Agent didn't win that award, Filho DID win their Director prize so that could account for something. It is still an outside shot, but I am going to do the NGNG prediction.
So yes, we COULD still see Panahi, we could still very much see Trier, and also...I should mention we could very well see Guillermo del Toro get in here for Frankenstein as it is clear the industry seems to be very fond of the film. It's not that he did a bad job or anything, but I just feel the film was "good" at best and not great. So yes, maybe I am predicting with some bias, but he could end up missing. Not for nothing, he was missing from the BAFTA shortlist which actually listed someone like Yorgos Lanthimos over him.
Josh Safdie is the other one here I would consider to be the most vulnerable. I suppose I wouldn't necessarily call Chloe Zhao a lock, but I do think she is damn near close. The thing about Safdie is that his work for Marty Supreme is so kinetic and alive and with the film picking up steam as more people see it...not to mention the strength it'll have by winning Best Actor and being a strong contender to potentially take the newly minted Best Casting category, I am hoping he will slip in here.
Zhao is a former winner and attached to one of the most beloved films of the year that is in the top 3 of the Picture contenders. I would be floored if she missed.
But yes...Coogler is in, and PTA is finally going to get the elusive Best Director win that he arguably should've won maybe 3 times by now.
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BEST PICTURE:
1 - One Battle After Another
2 - Sinners
3 - Hamnet
4 - Marty Supreme
5 - Sentimental Value
6 - Frankenstein
7 - The Secret Agent
8 - Bugonia
9 - Train Dreams
10 - It Was Just an Accident
Can One Battle After Another get taken down by another film?
I suppose if the Guilds end up going hog wild for another film in a way we aren't expecting, we could see Sinners emerge as that alternative. However, even if Sinners takes the Actors' Ensemble Award and WGA for Original Screenplay, I still think One Battle will prevail as I expect it to take PGA, DGA, the WGA for Adapted, and it'll likely be received better by BAFTA even though I sort of expect Hamnet to dominate more there.
I am in the minority here, but the only film of these 10 that I wasn't overly fond of was Train Dreams (aside from not seeing The Secret Agent as of yet). I am still a bit baffled by the love Frankenstein has been getting. I am not sure it is worthy to be in Best Picture, and the only real major nomination I can support from it is the one Jacob Elordi will get.
Beyond that, this would be a pretty solid group of nominees, but I am not sure what else could sneak in as a surprise. I will say that Sirat making so many appearances on the Tech category shortlists could signal that maybe a really huge surprise nod is coming, but I do see a path that Weapons could sneak in following its PGA nom... especially if it somehow can snatch the last slot in Screenplay, too.
I am not sure if we will get a major surprise nomination for something this year like I'm Hot Here was last year. I just think Weapons is the only real alternative if they opt for something more populist.
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The nominations will be announced Thursday January 22nd. I suspect I will make a post with my reactions, so I will be back with that later next week!
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