Thursday, March 13, 2025

My UPDATED Ranking of the Best Actress Oscar Winners! - Vol. 1 #98-71


Back in 2023, I completed a full ranking of the entire roster of Best Actress winners for my blog and it still remains one of my most successful series of posts.

However - I haven't updated it to include the two most recent winners and haphazardly threw Michelle Yeoh onto the ranking without really thinking. Upon further inspection, I think I do feel like certain actresses deserved to be shifted around both positively and negatively. 

My goal is to try to update this list every year from here on out whenever we get a new winner, but for now, let us start at the very bottom with my least favorite Best Actress winner. This choice is still the same from my previous post, and I think a lot of you who follow this kind of thing will agree.

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#98 - Mary Pickford, Coquette (1929)


You could argue that Mary Pickford had a claim on the title of "America's Sweetheart" by how much the public adored her in the 1920s, sort of like the "girl next door" compared to the worldly and mature Clara Bow. 

When the film industry shifted from Silent to Sound in the late 20s, it sent seismic waves around the industry as some of the biggest stars were deemed to be unusable once their voices would be factored into the equation. This concept was shown to show hilarious affect with Jean Hagen's Lina Lamont in Singin' in the Rain. 

The era of 1928-1929 cinema is often considered one of the worst, if not the absolute worst, era in Hollywood history primarily due to the industry adapting to the changeover to sound. The results lead to films with strange robotic staging, performances than range from weirdly melodramatic or wooden as a board, and sound quality that often makes dialogue insanely difficult to hear. 

In order to keep up with the times, Pickford's first foray into the talkies was Coquette, in which she would play a well-to-do southern belle whose infatuation with one of the working class leads to tragedy.

Pickford was known for having a long, luscious curls but cut her hair to a pixie cut to match the intensely popular flapper aesthetic of the time while also trying to shed her "Pollyanna" image.

The results did lead to respectful reviews and people accepting that Pickford could work as a "talkie actress"...however, time has not been kind to the film or to Pickford.

Pickford was only the second actress to ever win this prize, but she was the first to do something that has become more commonplace nowadays: campaign and lobby for votes.

Pickford was married to actor/filmmaker Douglas Fairbanks, who just so happened to be the first President of the Academy. Among the founding members, Pickford was also a part of that group. As a means to try to further the state of her career, she invited the judges/voters over to her famous Pickfair estate to push the agenda as to why she would warrant such an award. 

That isn't why I am voting her as my least favorite choice to win the award...the performance itself is frankly more than enough to base this selection on. As I eluded to earlier, Coquette is very much a product of its time when it comes to being a film that struggles to overcome the early days of Talkies. 

It is staged poorly and is presented in such a lifeless way that it is amazing that it is still somehow melodramatic at the same time.

Pickford's talent is not overly apparent in this film as it is is clear she lacks the prowess of her contemporaries such as the aforementioned Clara Bow or Joan Crawford, Janet Gaynor, Greta Garbo, Marlene Dietrich, Gloria Swanson, or the woman who should've won this award posthumously, Jeanne Eagles for The Letter.

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#97 - Elizabeth Taylor, Butterfield 8 (1960)


"I lost to a tracheotomy" - Shirley MacLaine.

You sure as hell did!

The winner of the Best Picture award in 1960 was the truly near-perfect romantic dramedy The Apartment, starring Jack Lemmon and Shirley MacLaine, in which she in particular gives a performance that blends romance and comedy and drama with such ease that I consider this one of the worst Oscar losses in history.

The tracheotomy in question that she lost to was that of the one given to Elizabeth Taylor, who nearly died after a severe bout with pneumonia. On top of this, Taylor had become something of a pariah in the press after Eddie Fisher left Debbie Reynolds for her.

There seemed to be a strong sentiment of forgiveness towards Taylor. When someone almost dies, the industry apparently soon wants to put aside the fact you're a homewrecker. That isn't to say I want to demonize Taylor for those actions; relationship dynamics and breakups can be highly complex. 

However - considering the circumstances in which she won in addition to the quality of the performance/film she was in, I cannot support this choice. 

Butterfield 8 is simply a trashy film that barely offers any kind of true value...and it is so tacky in its approach that they cast Eddie Fisher to play opposite Taylor in the film. Upon its premiere, Taylor expressed that she found the film to be "a piece of shit"...but I suppose you could argue Taylor fits the aesthetic of the film rather well. It's just a shame that it is clearly beneath her talents as evidenced by her work in previously nominated performances like Cat on a Hot Tin Roof and Suddenly Last Summer and especially in the performance that would net her a 2nd Oscar: Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? 

There are truly some cringy moments to see here...and perhaps you could call them camp in their own way. Taylor yelling "I was the slut of all time!" leading to get slapped by her mother, and we also get one of the most ridiculous death scenes ever put on film. 

Such a true waste of an Oscar win, and a clear case of where narrative and sentimentality carried the day over quality.

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#96 - Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (2010)


"Did I deserve this, or did I just wear you all down?"

Great opening line to a speech by a truly charismatic actress who had just won an Oscar for a truly unremarkable performance in a very abysmal movie that stands as one of the worst examples of the "White Savior" trope in cinema history. 

I have been actively following the movie award season since the late 90s, and while the opinions of people who lurk on online film forums can be questionable and suggestive, I can't recall a time when it seemed like so many people agreed that it was so baffling that a particular performance was not only getting intense Oscar buzz, but that it was the frontrunner to win despite such clearly better competition. 

It was almost as vitriolic as the awards embrace given to Emilia Perez. 

Even more surprising was when The Blind Side actually slipped into the Best Picture race that year seemingly on the coattails of Bullock's success. 

I am not saying that Bullock gives a truly terrible performance, but she is just...there. It doesn't help that the script is positively atrocious in all of its "white savior" circle jerk banality. 

I can still remember the moment where she sits around the table with her southern belle friends and one says, "You're changing that boy's life!"

And with a meek but trying to be profound tone, Bullock says "No....he's changing mine".

I mumbled quietly "Dear fucking lord..." 

Aside from Bullock, The Blind Side is appalling because the film was clearly structured to make the Tuohy family look saintlier than they actually were in real life. It also doesn't help that Michael Oher came out in recent years to shine a light on the Tuohys' behavior and actually sued them over tricking him into a conservatorship.

Bullock has given some strong performances, like playing Harper Lee in the lesser-seen Truman Capote biopic Infamous and she is basically the best thing about beyond the visual effects in Gravity, which I don't think is as amazing of a film as many make it out to be...and this performance is more or less serviceable at best and it isn't helped by the fact she is dealing with insufferable material.

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#95 - Loretta Young, The Farmer's Daughter (1947)


Nowadays, it is hard to get truly crazy upset wins in the Acting categories. Even some of the more surprising ones make sense in hindsight, like Olivia Colman or Mark Rylance.

Wins like Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock or Adrien Brody's first win for The Pianist seem very harder to pull off nowadays. Back when there were fewer precursor awards, it did seem easier for different voting bodies to opt for different performances.

And yet...no one seemed to think Loretta Young had a shot. 

This was a character actress who hadn't received much attention prior who managed to beat out such heavy hitters as Rosalind Russell, Joan Crawford, and Susan Hayward with what was a relatively meek performance in a comedy.

And the only reason Young even got the role was because Ingrid Bergman was let go when suspicions were brought to light that she may have been having an affair with her co-star Joseph Cotton...because how dare a woman do such thing?! Of course, Cotton wasn't penalized because...you know...the patriarchy. 

Considering how much of a departure this was from the other nominees, I suppose that is what made Young stand out. However, I do think it is fascinating how much many of us bemoan how the Oscars and many other voting bodies never tend to recognize comedic performances and yet, they are the ones that people often have the most flack with.

I do think the issue with Young is that her performance often lacks a certain spark or energy. Her character is supposed to be a Swedish farm girl who lives her family for a life in the big city who gets into the world of politics. I just find that for a performance that is supposed to be built on a lot of quirky charisma, it isn't quite there...and it also doesn't help that her Swedish accent slips in and out throughout the film. 

The performance does have a charm to it, but I also feel like for being our leading lady, she often disappears next to her co-stars.

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#94 - Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love (1998)


Considering this was one of the first Oscar seasons I can distinctly remember following, I have a lot of opinions about this selection...as do a lot of people who follow this kind of thing.

A lot has been said about Shakespeare in Love, particularly with how it won Best Picture in an upset over the very popular and acclaimed Spielberg WWII epic Saving Private Ryan. A lot of the reasoning behind this was that of Harvey Weinstein, a man whose campaigning tactics were nothing short of diabolical. That Best Picture win is frequently considered to be his magnum opus, but going along for that ride was Gwyneth Paltrow.

Paltrow was seen as a promising young actress at the time, coming off roles in films like Emma and Sliding Doors plus there seemed to be an overwhelming obsession with her in terms of how she epitomized old-style Hollywood glamour. The lovely YouTube channel BeKindRewind made a video on this topic and she nailed this point on how news outlets were giving Paltrow titles such as "the new Audrey Hepburn" or "the new Grace Kelly". 

Paltrow's win seemed like such a coronation, but the remarkable thing was how toxic the opinion towards her win changed. It also didn't help that her acceptance speech was quite possibly the most made fun of since Sally Field's 1985 win as she seemed to go on for an eternity and was blathering and crying to the point you could barely understand her. My favorite moment is when she can barely get out the thanks to her mother, Blythe Danner, and when it cuts to Danner in the audience, she almost seems put off by the display, but that is me just being a bit snippy. As for the performance itself, it's fine. Nothing less, nothing more. It is not that remarkable in the slightest.

If you want remarkable, there were two nominees right there who gave stellar performances: Cate Blanchett's breakout role in Elizabeth and particularly Fernanda Montenegro, the Queen of Brazillian Theatre, in Central Station.

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#93 - Luise Rainer, The Good Earth (1937)


Are you ready for a heaping dose of YELLOWFACE?!

The Good Earth was based on a novel by Pearl S. Buck about Chinese farmers in pre-WWI China who struggling terribly to survive. Paul Muni and Luise Rainer were both cast as the lead couple and in case the point didn't get across, they were lily white. 

Anna Mae Wong had lobbied hard for the role seeing it as her big chance to have a dramatic breakthrough role only for it to be denied as they cast Paul Muni in the husband role. In those days, the dreaded Hays Code forbid any kind of interracial couple pairings in films and thus, the role was given to Luise Rainer, who had just won an Oscar the year prior for The Great Ziegfeld.

Rainer was something of a pet project for MGM head Louis B. Meyer. For years, he had loathed the actress that had been his biggest star simply because she protested the fact that she made less than her male co-stars or that she felt it wasn't necessary to devote all her time to Hollywood hobnobbing.

That was Greta Garbo.

And Meyer hoped that getting another actress from Europe could somehow duplicate Garbo's success but have an actress that was willing to go along with the game plan.

Hilariously, it backfired. Despite winning two back-to-back Actress Oscars, Rainer's star would dim fast, and she would leave Hollywood by 1940. Rainer couldn't stand the Hollywood game even more than Garbo. When Rainer won this particular Oscar, she hadn't even planned on attending the ceremony until Meyer sent someone to her home only to find her in pajamas. They forced her to get ready for the ceremony and videos clearly show Rainer trying to appear happy while Meyer forces her repeatedly to show off her Oscar.

I think this is a performance where it isn't just hard to separate the Yellowface angle, but also the fact that she tends to rely too much on stereotypes with nearly constant wide-eyed facial expression and accent that seems to flutter somewhere between a variation of Chinese and her native German. 

Meyer lobbied hard for Rainer to win and the power of the film studios (as I have stated before) were too strong in those days...and he lobbied at the expense of Greta Garbo who was up for her truly iconic work in Camille. 

However, in addition to Garbo, you also had these stellar women:
Irene Dunne, The Awful Truth
Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born
Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas

Gaynor was the very first recipient of a Best Actress Oscar, and we will discuss her eventually. She would've placed a solid fourth here but Dunne, Garbo, and Stanwyck were all worthy to win this for some of the best work of their respective careers. 

The win for Rainer seemed like a wasted opportunity, especially those three women never won an Oscar.

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#92 - Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory (1934)


Prior to becoming "Box Office Poison", Katharine Hepburn managed to strike gold for a year with her performances in Little Women and her Oscar winning work in Morning Glory, a film no one talks about anymore unless referencing Hepburn. 

I have referenced the following quote various times throughout my blog because there is a lot of truth to it, particularly with that of Hepburn herself. She was quoted as saying "The right actors win Oscars, but often for the wrong roles".

Hepburn fits this to a tee. She has won more acting Oscars than any other performer: 4. 

Of those four, I would say she only deserved one...I won't say which one to reserve some suspense, but chances are if you are a film person, you already know.

Her work as Eve Lovelace in Morning Glory is a prime example of how stiff and wooden some performances could be in these early films. A lot of the acting trademarks that would define Hepburn's truly illustrious career are oddly missing with this performance. 

Of the nominees, character actress Mary Robson was my favorite from Lady for a Day but even she suffers a lot from the film around her.

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#91 - Joan Fontaine, Suspicion (1941)


With Joan Fontaine, we have our first example of an actress winning an Oscar not long after losing for a far superior performance. In fact, this was just a year after she lost for the most memorable role of her career in Alfred Hitchcock's Rebecca.

Conveniently enough, she wins the next year for a performance in a rather forgotten about Hitchcock effort, Suspicion, which revolves around a meek and relatively naive woman who marries a playboy type only to discover he is not the man he says he is...and on top of that, he might be a murderer. 

Fontaine fits the ever-present blonde damsel in distress motif that pops up constantly in Hitchcock's films, but here, her portrayal as Lina feels far more lifeless than that of the previous years' "The 2nd Mrs. DeWinter". 

Is it just subtlety or is it simply a lack of solid characterization? I am more inclined to agree with the latter. 

Fontaine would've been a far more worthy winner in 1940 as opposed to 1941. If I were to opt for a candidate amongst the 1941 nominees, I would've opted for Bette Davis in The Little Foxes though I also wouldn't have minded Barbara Stanwyck for Ball of Fire.

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#90 - Jessica Lange, Blue Sky (1994)


I do truly adore Jessica Lange, but the unfortunate thing about her in my book is that neither of her Oscar wins are for her best work. In fact, I think she mostly benefitted from 1994 being one of the truly barren years for this category to the point where publications at that time even commented that the field was truly depressing.

When it comes to the qualities I admire about Lange as an actress, I think that she gives herself over to a character in ways that are unrelenting and surprising. The downside to this is that it doesn't always come across as smoothly, so while I commend the effort and the boldness, I would just to follow it with "See you on the next film!"

Blue Sky is also a rather mediocre film which bombed at the Box Office when it was released after having been shelved for 3 years due to the bankruptcy of its original distributor, Orion. 

Her role of Carly Marshall is a suffering housewife who has frequent outbursts brought on by mental illness. So yes, it is a challenging and demanding role that requires a lot of extensive care and preparation. 

In the end, I don't think she fully succeeded nor does the film around her help in any way.

Her competition was incredibly weak as well, but I would probably give the win to Winona Ryder, who made for a truly wonderful Jo in Little Women. 

This was also the year they randomly nominated Susan Sarandon for The Client, but that performance clearly had some passion considering she won the BAFTA for it! I will say out of the snubbed performances; I would've loved to see Jennifer Jason Leigh make it in for Mrs. Parker & The Vicious Circle or Jamie Lee Curtis for True Lies or Sigourney Weaver for Death & The Maiden.

Oh, if only What's Love Got to Do With It? actually came out in '94 instead of '93 so she could've wiped the floor with these people in a swift cakewalk...even though she should've done that pretty handily in '93.

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#89 - Bette Davis, Dangerous (1935)


We have another entry in the "Someone wins Oscar soon after losing for a much superior similar performance" category.

Bette Davis burst onto the scene in 1934 with her performances as the miserable and grating Mildred in Of Human Bondage, a character she sought to play because she knew it was a chance to show Hollywood what she was capable of in a role that most actresses would be afraid to tackle.

While the film did end up losing money, she herself caused quite the sensation and the public loved her commitment to the character. Controversy then arose when she was snubbed of an Oscar nomination which seemed to be due to the fact that RKO didn't want to spend a lot of money on a film that lost them money while Davis' own studio, Warner Bros., didn't want to put money up on an actress of theirs who made a film for a competing studio AND that they found difficult (i.e. she wouldn't put up with sexist and hypocritical BS...for the record, Bette Davis is awesome!)

Dangerous was a film Davis originally turned down, but she was persuaded to accept it when she was told it was inspired by Jeanne Eagles, the late actress who suffered from drug and alcohol abuse despite her immense acting promise. Eagels was an idol of Davis' and she wanted to try to tackle the role in her honor.

The results were essentially a disaster. Davis manages to find enough good moments, but the film itself is the real disaster and a lot of the scenes play as retreads of Davis' outbursts from Of Human Bondage...even down to having a monologue she foams out of her mouth to Franchot Tone (with whom she has no chemistry even though it was rumored they had an affair) that feels like a watered-down version of her "Wipe my mouth!" monologue she screams at Leslie Howard.

Davis knew that Dangerous was mostly a failure and talks about it extensively in her very candid autobiography.

This win cost Katharine Hepburn an Oscar for one of her best performances, which was for Alice Adams. 

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#88 - Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (2005)

Every year will bring us different dynamics by category, but it still does feel so strange that Reese Witherspoon won an Oscar for Walk the Line while Joaquin Phoenix did not. That isn't necessarily to say that Phoenix would've gotten my vote either; he happened to be in a crazy stacked category while Witherspoon's was rather weak by comparison.

I will say Witherspoon having an Oscar is something I do love knowing is a thing, especially because she has killed in films like Election and gave such an iconic turn as Elle Woods in Legally Blonde. 

Walk the Line is one of those standard musical biopic films that really do nothing to advance the art of filmmaking but as it stands, Witherspoon does a nice job. However, it is really more of a Supporting performance that doesn't get much of a chance to shine. 

As problematic as it is, Felicity Huffman did do a great job in Transamerica even if the idea of a cis woman playing a trans woman doesn't fly these days. 

They did snub some truly wonderful performances like:

Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger

Natasha Richardson, The White Countess

Joan Plowright, Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont

Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale (although she could also be Supporting)

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#87 - Grace Kelly, The Country Girl (1954)


Hollywood, especially of the supposed Golden Age, is petty as hell.

Despite a glorious comeback in which she gave the performance of her career, Judy Garland was cast aside due to her erratic behavior and controversial work ethic in favor of the glamorous Grace Kelly who did something that is also quite the popular favorite style in this category: "de-glamming" yourself.

Grace Kelly had talent, there is no question about that. However, her solid work in The Country Girl never left any kind of significant impression on me. It really truly read like an early example of Hollywood wanting to crown a new princess (pardon the pun) who had a pretty strong year with multiple hit films by singling out what was her biggest dramatic success in which she dared to present herself as looking rather plain.

All at the expense of Judy Garland, someone whose erratic and unhealthy tendencies were brought upon by Hollywood themselves.

Kelly would soon leave Hollywood to become a literal princess when she married Prince Rainier of Monaco. 

I think it is a fine performance, but this is one of those cases where I can't help but sit here and think how laughable and petty it is that Garland lost this.

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#86 - Emma Stone, La La Land (2016)


This placement may anger some or may even raise some eyebrows from those who aren't that big on this win/performance, but I truly did not see what was that great about this performance in the grand scheme.

I can remember seeing the film in theaters and mildly enjoying it...but the truth is that a film like La La Land should've been up my alley and yet I found myself a little underwhelmed; a feeling that has only grown a bit more over the years since seeing it. 

While watching it, I remember taking to Stone and thinking she did a good job...certainly far more interesting than the performance given by her co-star Ryan Gosling. I wasn't closely following the award season at that time so when people began saying Emma Stone was the frontrunner to win and she won at SAG, I was floored. I couldn't believe that this performance was going to go along for the film's seemingly inevitable sweep. 

I get that the film was trying to take on classic cinematic musicals with more modern and realistic performances, but for me, the results often felt lifeless. It didn't help that it was difficult to even care about Mia and Sebastian as characters or their supposed love story.

Stone's best moment is probably her performance of "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", which helps by being a song that can be carried more by the acting than the singing voice, but even that didn't exactly wow me upon viewing. 

Of the actual nominees, Isabelle Huppert would've made a strong winner for Elle as would've Natalie Portman for Jackie. Although in my dream world, Viola Davis would've been bumped up to Lead for Fences and won here rather than commit category fraud in Supporting.

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#85 - Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia (1956)


Here comes another narrative "We Forgive You!" win.

The truth is that the fact that Hollywood felt that they needed to "forgive" Bergman is a joke. The controversy was that Bergman basically had an affair with Italian director Roberto Rossellini.

How dare she. 

It is a truly sexist story. I would recommend watching YouTuber BeKindRewind's video on Bergman to get the full story. It is amazing how sensitive the morals were, especially towards women, back in the 1950s.

Maybe we ought to get used to it since, as of this writing, we seem to be heading back to that very decade…

Bergman's win here also benefited from relatively uninteresting competition, like Deborah Kerr in The King and I and Katharine Hepburn in The Rainnmaker, which are both good performances but not among their best.

Bergman has also been better than she was in Anastasia. It is a good performance but one that doesn't exactly draw much passion. 

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#84 - Norma Shearer, The Divorcee (1930)


Time has not been kind to Norma Shearer. If you were to go back and look at the least of nominees in the 1930s, you will see that Norma Shearer managed to net 6 nominations and one win between 1930-1938. This was briefly the nomination record until Bette Davis would steal it a couple of years later...and now Meryl Streep has like 4,594 nominations...or 21...something like that.

Norma Shearer never really gets discussed anymore, but a lot of her legend comes from the fact that she was married to producer Irving Thalberg and that the clout managed to get her a lot of roles that she may not have been overly right for.

However, Shearer is a fascinating actress and over the 1930s, she would grow more polished as a performer. This is simply a case where I find her more melodramatic acting style to be a bit much and that it just doesn't measure up when comparing it to the other winners.

San Francisco Chronicle critic Mick LaSalle is a premier expert on the pre-Code era of Hollywood, so he has had a lot to say about the likes of Shearer.

"Shearer is the exemplar of 1930s sophisticated womanhood...the first American actress to make it chic and acceptable to be single and a virgin onscreen".

Shearer was definitely more of a pioneer for strong women than many give her credit for. She would go on to give better performances in movies like Marie Antoinette, but despite the low ranking for this performance, I do admire what she could accomplish at a time when women were even more discriminated against. 

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#83 - Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook (2012)


Very few filmmakers leave me feeling as cold or as annoyed as David O. Russell, a man with such a massive ego and yet he does not have the filmography to match that status. That isn't to say that filmmakers should all be cocky, but you don't see Martin Scorsese or Bong Joon Ho running around belittling people or acting like he is the greatest gift to cinema.

Jennifer Lawrence being put into his universe certainly helped her, because it got her an Oscar and a couple of nominations for the succeeding films of his. However, his fascination with her still strikes me as odd. 

She was only 22 when she starred in this film and yet she was cast to play someone older and play opposite Bradley Cooper. Her age is also a lot older in American Hustle as well.

Lawrence does a solid job with her characters, but something about them rings false. I do think we are approaching an era of her career where will we see potentially better things from her. 

Even her performance in Don't Look Up, which features a sort of semi-dramatic/comedic outburst of despair, was done far better than anything she did in an O'Russell film.

Frankly, this Oscar should've gone to either Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty or Emmanuelle Riva in Amour. Circling back to O'Russell, I do remember when Emmanuelle Riva won the BAFTA for Amour, and the camera cut to him in the audience with a face of disgust because Lawrence lost the award; for the record, she was politely clapping. 

I get being sad that your leading lady lost the award, but for the love of God, GET OVER IT! She lost to a performance she deserved to lose to!

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#82 - Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (2011)


Leave it to the Academy to FINALLY reward Meryl Streep with her long overdue 3rd Oscar for a very stuffy biopic performance in a film that was honestly an absolute slog to sit through.

Not only was the film a slog, but it was about Margaret Thatcher...a woman who, on the day of her death, got RAKED OVER THE COALS by former actress turned Parliament member Glenda Jackson (who we will be seeing on this list) for her heinous politics and reign as PM. 

One might think that speaking so ill of the dead on the day they died might be a bit cruel, but if there was ever someone who belonged on that list, Thatcher certainly deserves such a vile status.

I don't necessarily think Streep was horrible in the film. If there was ever an actress who has had a pretty solid track record in performance quality, Streep is a legend for a reason. 

She can be a bit more mannered and calculated in performances, which this is clearly one of those. I feel like her scenes as the elderly Thatcher might be her best work in the film...even if the idea of us watching an elderly Thatcher wither away with her dying husband and making us feel sympathy for her is something makes me want to throw a sofa at the screen. 

This was the year that Viola Davis came very close to becoming the second actress of color to win a Lead Oscar as her narrative heated up following her SAG win. This isn't to say that I necessarily would've voted for her, but she was certainly a better choice than Streep...even if The Help was a very problematic film in its own right. 

2011 was a year in which we had so many stellar Lead Actress performances and yet the season seemed to veer towards the lesser side of that list. Aside from Rooney Mara, other contenders I wish had made a dent in this race would've been:

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia 

Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur 

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

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#81 - Kate Winslet, The Reader (2008)


It is a shame that in a year where they finally gave Winslet her overdue Oscar, she gave a better performance in a better film and yet they opted for the awards bait performance in an awards bait film that's Best Picture nomination seemed to singlehandedly lead to the Academy changing its rules that there would be more than 5 Best Picture nominees the following year. 

The Reader was a highly acclaimed novel, but the results onscreen were uneven and mostly forgettable as the film progressed. 

As a concept (SPOILERS), the idea of an illiterate Nazi sympathizer and concentration camp guard seducing minors as a means to earn their trust so they will read to her is oddly intriguing but clearly problematic. As the film's presentation suggests, it dangerously flirts with them trying to make us sympathize with a Nazi and a pedophile while acting as something close to Holocaust Revisionism. 

The nature of the role doesn't exactly due much to give Winslet to chew on, whereas her performance in that year's Revolutionary Road in which she got the act opposite her Titanic co-stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kathy Bates gave her a role that might've seemed far simpler on paper, but it felt a lot more real and the vitality she gave the role was easily some of the best in her entire career. 

As for her fellow nominees, I actually think Anne Hathaway did truly lovely work in the rather bleak Rachel Getting Married and this would've been a great opportunity to give her an Oscar out of the lineup given.

Some snubbed contenders I would've loved to see make it onto this list were Kristen Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long and Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky.

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#80 - Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld (1936)


I already talked about Rainer and her short Hollywood career when discussing her win for The Good Earth, but I do want to take a moment to talk about the glimmer of promise she gave in The Great Ziegfeld. 

I may be ranking her pretty low, which is mainly due to the fact that the performance doesn't have much meat on the bone, and it is clear that her win was heavily orchestrated by Louis B. Meyer, but Rainer's performance in this has one standout moment that a lot of film historians call the first true example of an "Oscar scene".

Even if you may not be familiar with the term, you can probably assume that an Oscar scene means that within just a couple of minutes of screentime, you may give the kind of performance that truly cinches you an Oscar win.

For Rainer, there is one scene in The Great Ziegfeld which stands out as such. 

This is a 3-hour film, and she is easily has supporting screentime in the narrative. Rainer plays Anna Held, the eventual ex-wife of the legendary Broadway impresario Florenz Ziegfeld...who eventually marries actress Billie Burke, who most remember nowadays as being Glinda in The Wizard of Oz.

Later in the film, Anna learns of Flo's marriage to Burke, and she calls to congratulate him. While speaking to him over the phone, she speaks of happiness to his marriage and also her upcoming projects while we see tears streaming down her face. 

While the performance style is certainly of its time and does seem very theatrical by today's standards, there is something so captivating about watching her in this scene. 

It isn't enough to rank her higher, but it is quite the lovely moment. Had she been in Supporting, she would likely have a bit of a loftier rating.

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#79 - Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby (2004)


I can remember being baffled when Hilary Swank swooped in to win a 2nd Oscar after her career mostly faltered following her 1st Oscar in 5 years prior. 

And her career still didn't really take off after the 2nd either.

It isn't that Swank is without talent (spoiler alert: her first win is going to be a lot higher on this ranking), but I didn't get the praise for Million Dollar Baby then and especially not now.

And once again, it isn't that Swank is bad in this. I just think the nature of the role (her being a female boxer) and her eventual fate did more to help her than the quality of her performance. 

Meanwhile - you had Kate Winslet, who was still Oscarless at that point, in this category for her quirky and effervescent performance as Clementine in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind which would've been a perfect first win for her.

I have already written a lot about other actresses and their work thus far and yet I can find myself to drum up a lot of passion talking about Swank...which is about as a good a suggestion to show how indifferent I am about her performance and the film.

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#78 - Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle (1940)


I do love the idea of someone like Ginger Rogers having this moment for herself. These days, her legend is still closely tied to being the person who did everything Fred Astaire did, but backwards and in heels. 

As delightful as watching Fred Astaire onscreen truly is to do, there is so much fire and charisma to Ginger Rogers whenever she appears. Not only was she one of the finest dancers in cinema history, but her comedic skills were on point.

It makes sense that seeing her take on a dramatic role in Kitty Foyle must've been quite the 180 that audiences weren't expecting, and she does solid work in the film...although I would argue that the melodramatic sensibilities of 1940s Hollywood does rear its head here. 

I think this win certainly played into the narrative of seeing an actress spread her wings, and the unfortunate fact in this case is that many voters at the time expressed that they voted for Rogers more as a vote for her character as a person as opposed to Katharine Hepburn, who had made something of a comeback with her truly dynamic performance in The Philadelphia Story. 

Not to mention, this category contained Joan Fontaine in Rebecca and Bette Davis in The Letter. Personally, I do think Fontaine or Hepburn should've taken this one in the end. 

Rogers' win was solid, but I do think even based on its own merits, it was not worthy to win an Oscar.

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#77 - Sally Field, Places in the Heart (1984)


Even if you don't follow award shows or even know much about film history, it is very likely that you have heard Sally Field's acceptance speech parodied/paraphrased into the ground: "You like me! You really like me!".... even though the actual quote was "You like me! Right now, you like me!"

On the same trajectory as Hilary Swank, Field came back 5 years later to win her 2nd Oscar...although it is clear that Field has had more of a career and legend about her by comparison.

Field seemingly benefitted from a race that didn't exactly have a strong frontrunner leading into the final days of the award season, so once Field took the Globe and having her film be a Best Picture nominee on top of it, it felt as though this win just felt into her lap.

The performance is solid as is the film, but it doesn't feel truly remarkable. Perhaps what is even more interesting is that 1984 was the year of the Farm movie in Best Actress with not only Field but also Jessica Lange in Country and Sissy Spacek in The River. 

I would argue Field was in the stronger film, but that Lange maybe gave my favorite performance of the trio...and yet, I don't have a passionate favorite amongst the five nominees that year. I almost wish they just bumped the Supporting Actress winner Peggy Ashcroft up to Lead as she had been straddling both categories all season. That would've opened up the Supporting race, but my personal choice in that instance wasn't even nominated: Nastassja Kinski in Paris, Texas.

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#76 - Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? (1967)


Hepburn won what was basically her 2nd overdue Oscar just a year before she won her 3rd...and while I would argue her 3rd win was her best and pretty much undeniable (yet another spoiler for the ranking), it makes this 2nd win seem like a waste in hindsight. It seems to be rooted more in sentimentality and being overdue rather than the performance itself.

That sentimentality was due to Hepburn mourning the loss of her frequent co-star and off-screen lover Spencer Tracy, with whom she shared the screen in this particular film. Tracy died only 10 days after filming his final scene and it left the normally fiercely independent Hepburn rather distraught.

The subject matter of the film was particularly prescient for that time: a white woman seeking to marry a black man only months before the Loving v. Supreme Court case. 

Hepburn's work as the mother who does realize that her daughter is doing nothing wrong is quite solid, but perhaps her most beautiful moment in the film occurs at the end in which she plays a quiet but pivotal role in Tracy's magnificent monologue in which he comes around to supporting his daughter's engagement. 

It was already known at the time that his health was in a dire place, so with that in mind, it is no shock that the tear-streamed face of Hepburn listening to Tracy is her thinking about their life together. Even one particular line in which Tracy references living to the age of 110 makes Hepburn almost wince as she knows his death is nearing.

I do think my personal vote in this category would go to Dame Edith Evans for The Whisperers, but you also have Anne Bancroft's legendary work as Mrs. Robinson in The Graduate, although that performance also straddles the Lead/Supporting line. 

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#75 - Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class (1973)


The 1973 Best Actress race was a bit of a free-for-all. It seemed as though most pundits felt any of the nominees could win...except for Glenda Jackson.

Marsha Mason and Ellen Burstyn seemed to have the most momentum, while Barbra Streisand seemed to be the populist fave. Joanne Woodward, along with Jackson, already had an Oscar.

Jackson's performance was seen as something of a departure from the other nominees. While the other performances came from various forms of drama (which is normally what the Oscars go for rather frequently), Jackson came from a rather cynical romantic comedy and it was not only a departure from the contenders, but a departure for her.

There have been similar instances throughout the years of performances winning in close races that seemed to benefit from being a lot different from their peers (i.e. Marisa Tomei winning for My Cousin Vinny over 4 dramatic actress from either the UK or Australia), so it doesn't really shock me here per se.

Although, I do feel a bit mixed on the win. I think Jackson does a fine job but it isn't her strongest work. I feel like Burstyn could've taken this one, freeing up her slot from where she won the following year.

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#74 - Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette (1943)


Jennifer Jones is another actress who doesn't exactly seem to have stood the test of time in terms of discussion and praise. It isn't that she is bad, but I also never found her to be truly distinctive.

While Song of Bernadette might be her best work, it is also not anything particularly strong.

This is also another case of a film that is simply too overlong, and it also gets docked points for being essentially religious propaganda. 

Jones might be the best thing about it, but she is also overshadowed at times by Vincent Price as the prosecutor.

In the end, I am not overly passionate about any of the nominees from that year so I will just let this one slide.

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#73 - Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda (1948)


I have more positive things to say about Johnny Belinda as opposed to Song of Bernadette, but I do still think that isn't a great film; maybe just a pretty good one.

What really helps the film is the performance by Jane Wyman, who gives a very heartfelt performance as a deaf-mute woman who was raped.

I think for its time; the film does come across a lot better than it could have and I think some of that is a testament to Wyman.

However, I think that the performances by Olivia de Havilland (The Snake Pit) and Irene Dunne (I Remember Mama) would've been more worthy of an Oscar.

Jane Wyman also got a second award of sorts around this same time because she got a divorce from Ronald Reagan. I would say great success, but still though, Wyman was a Republican and supposedly very homophobic, so in that case, she can go suck a lemon.

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#72 - Jane Fonda, Coming Home (1978)


I have always had a rather mixed opinion on Fonda as an actress. 

When she is good, she is GREAT. 

It isn't that she is bad, per se. She just tends to not always be as emotive, and it gives a lifeless feel to some of her performances. I could sort of compare it to some of the same issues I have with Scarlett Johannsen, who often divides people with her acting.

In the case of Coming Home, Fonda was in the early stages of her comeback after spending a few years in relative obscurity and scorn after her visit to Hanoi.

*Side note: I adore Jane Fonda and her activism. No judgement or hatred here*

This was also one of the first major films (along with that year's Best Picture winner The Deer Hunter) to have a Vietnam-centric theme in which Fonda plays Sally Hyde, a conservative nurse who ends up developing a romantic interest in Luke (Jon Voight), an angry and frustrated vet who was left a paraplegic, while her husband Bob (Bruce Dern) is still deployed.

A lot of the issues with this film due stem from it being rather melodramatic and an example of Hal Ashby's sort of erratic abilities as a director.

I also did not find myself as invested in this love triangle, as I couldn't garner much sympathy for Dern's character, nor did I really find Voight to be that appealing either.

Fonda does sell it the best, but she just isn't quite there. I feel like the movie is nowhere near as radical as wants to be presented as.

Fonda also won over two truly magnificent performances:

Jill Clayburgh in An Unmarried Woman is one of the finest performances of the 70s. Vibrant, raw...actually I will let the film's tagline take it from here: "she laughs, she cries, she feels angry, she feels lonely, she feels guilty..." It goes on and on. It is one of the best performances to truly run the gamut of emotions.

Then you have Ingrid Bergman in Autumn Sonata, a truly sterling performance that was actually the finest of her career...but considering she already had 3 Oscars and the Academy was still very stringent about honoring performances and films in a foreign language, she didn't seem to have much of a chance.

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#71 - Halle Berry, Monster's Ball (2001)


Halle Berry became the first woman of color to win the Best Actress Oscar when she took the gold for Monster's Ball, and to this day, she is only one of two as Michelle Yeoh became the first woman of Asian descent to win...and it is shame that Berry managed to win for a movie that is such a sleazy melodrama in which she plays a trashy character who mainly serves as a redemption piece for the racist character played by Billy Bob Thornton.

Now let's watch them have one of the worst sex scenes ever filmed...

Halle Berry stunned everyone with her lovely performance in Introducing Dorothy Dandridge just a couple years prior to her work in Monster's Ball. 

She has talent...and yet, after this Oscar win, she has struggled for 20 years. She finally had a bit of a comeback with her directorial debut Bruised, but despite a solid acting/directing job, the movie was mostly subpar.

I think Berry does as good as she can in a film this low brow...but it does just come off as a bit cringeworthy at times.

I am not really happy with any of the Best Actress nominees that year honestly. 

The fact they snubbed Naomi Watts for her dual role (in a sense) in Mulholland Drive is simply criminal. In terms of a breakthrough performance, what Naomi Watts achieved in Mulholland Drive is nothing short of astounding. There would be a lot to praise but I just think about that amazing audition scene. We see her rehearse it before with Laura Harring's character Rita and it feels very forced and typical...only for it to become something else entirely in the room, and it is glorious. Also, other snubs included Tilda Swinton in The Deep End and Nicole Kidman for her work in The Others...but she was nominated for Moulin Rouge instead.

Even though she wasn't technically eligible until the following year, Isabelle Huppert's work in The Piano Teacher is among the finest of her career.

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SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RANKING SO FAR:

Revisiting this list, I found myself realizing that some of these performances are truly interchangeable. When I did this ranking the first time, I found myself not necessarily hating some of these performances but rather just considering them be objectively not Oscar worthy. I do stand by that statement overall. 

Selecting Pickford as my least favorite is clearly the easiest option and I know that is a pretty common consensus among those who follow these types of things...and yes, I am well aware that it is a niche group. 

As of right now, I do have the full ranking drafted out, but I am sure as I begin writing about the actresses one by one, I may shift some of them around. 

Next up, I will be ranking #70-41. This will be followed by:

#40-21

and

THE TOP 20

My goal will be to keep adding each year to these posts, and perhaps even shift some of them around if I feel like it. I suppose you could say I want this to be as close to a living and breathing thing that a blog could be...same with when I re-tackle the Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress races. I do still want to do Actor and Supporting Actor, but there are quite a few performances from each category during the first roughly 25 years of the ceremony that I only saw once and never did again, so I don't feel as confident ranking those.

Stay tuned for the next volume!

Monday, March 3, 2025

It Should Never Be Longer Than THE BRUTALIST! - My Thoughts on the 97th Academy Awards

 This was a very bizarre ceremony.

The host, Conan O'Brien, made a point near the end of his opening monologue that he wanted to run a tight ship...and while we can't necessarily blame him for segments such as the one devoted to the James Bond series, it is clear that the producing team of the ceremony combined with overlong acceptance speeches (I am looking at you, Adrien Brody...) and the apparently "necessary" evil of seemingly constant commercial breaks, led to this nearly 4 hour ceremony. I feel like the Oscars haven't lasted this long in over 20 years. 

I can remember as a kid/teenager when the Oscars would start at 8:30 and then last until nearly 1 A.M. and while I do love the early 7pm start time, I don't like that it still lumbered along. That is also with them getting rid of the Best Song performances, which this year was welcomed as that had to be one of the worst lineups the category has ever seen. If there was ever a time to toss Diane Warren a bone, this was it. 

The first half hour was wonderful, even if by the half hour point I was like "Oh hell, they still haven't presented anything". The opening number with Ariana Grande singing "Over the Rainbow", Cynthia Erivo belting out "Home" from The Wiz, and then the two of the joining forces for "Defying Gravity" was a strong way to open the show and the two of them did an absolutely lovely job. 

I haven't looked at a lot of the online commentary about O'Brien directly, but I frankly enjoyed him as host. His snarky and irreverent nature felt refreshing for the ceremony, plus I do love the jab he took at Karla Sofia Gascon. I also very much loved his self-deprecating humor as the show slowly chugged along where he referred to any viewers remaining as having Stockholm Syndrome. I am a pretty die hard Conan O'Brien fan and I would very much like to see him try this gig again. I did appreciate him a bit more than Jimmy Kimmel and he was certainly far more successful in the role compared to people like Neil Patrick Harris or Seth MacFarlane. 

I feel like last year's ceremony, with Oppenheimer winning, was such a swiftly moving ceremony in comparison. The Academy has had a longstanding contract with ABC to air the ceremony which is scheduled to last until 2028. This year was the first time the ceremony has been simulcast on Hulu, which was how I viewed the ceremony...and how many people ended up pissed off (more on that in a moment). 

Part of me does like the idea of the Oscars moving strictly to streaming a la the SAG Awards which had left the TBS/TNT deal for a streaming contract on Netflix with limited ad breaks. I would like to think something such as this could help keep the time down...but if that were the case, I hope that Hulu or whichever service would take it actually allows the livestream to keep going and not cut it off right before a category that had some legitimate suspense. Considering it was a moment many people following it were building to, including me, it was a bit of a bummer to switch on YouTube TV and see Mikey Madison mid-speech and find out that way.

Let's talk about the winners, as I do have some thoughts in every direction.

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THE CRAFTS:

The majority of these prizes went in the way that I expected.

Dune Part Two winning for Sound and Visual Effects seemed like a given just as much as The Substance taking Makeup/Hairstyling. 

The Brutalist rather handily won Cinematography, and I would argue Score was an easy win as well considering the most acclaimed Score of the year, arguably Challengers, was not even nominated. 

Best Song ended up going to "El Mal" from Emilia Perez, which was yet another expected winner though one I desperately hoped would somehow lose...even if it was arguably the only semi-decent song in that trainwreck. As to be expected, the songwriters who won turned out to be absolutely obnoxious onstage seemingly wanting to sing the "Emilia" motif from the film...and also just felt like salt to the wound of seeing this dumpster fire taking awards.

Wicked made history as Paul Tazewell became the first black man to win the Costuming prize, while it also won a well deserved victory for its Production Design. Every set from the Wizard's quarters to the rotating library were an absolute marvel!

However, the one crafts prize that I want to talk about is that of Sean Baker winning for Anora. 

The Editing prize was considered to be a bit all over the place as a lot of the editing awards prior had given their trophies to Challengers...but in the last couple of weeks, the consensus from most seemed to think that BAFTA winner Conclave could pull it off and that it could signal another factor towards a last minute Best Picture surge.

Some did wonder if Anora could pull it off, but I have to that based what is onscreen, it isn't a film that seems to be screaming for an Editing win. One saying that is often said amongst awards prognosticators is that the Best Editing winner is usually "Most Editing". If you were to go based off that logic, Emilia Perez would've won this but as you can probably guess, that would never happen in my book. 

I think they could've just tossed this win to Wicked and called it a day, but I will say that despite my admiration for Anora, I do feel like its win here probably could've been spared. I did really love Sean Baker saying "I saved this film in the edit!" and proclaimed that the director (himself) should never work again. Truthfully though, Anora is a film that could've been about 15-20 minutes shorter. When I first saw the film way back in October, I felt it then and on a rewatch just two weeks ago, I still felt it. I don't think it is enough to be a true detriment to the film, but this was the win where it was clear that these voters more or less embraced Anora with a lot of passion.

I do want to express my absolute joy at seeing I'm Still Here overtake Emilia Perez in Best International Feature, which was very well deserved and it felt good to see that film barely get any wins last night...although it was still two too many.

And also - No Other Land defying against the odds of not getting any distribution and netting this win based on independent distribution. Considering its pro-Palestine subject matter, I am impressed enough Academy members embraced it considering a lot of Hollywood and the industry are rather Zionist leaning in their beliefs.

Now let's move to the Big 8 categories:

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY went to Anora as was expected, but I want to save more of my Anora discussion for other categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY went to Conclave which was one of the biggest locks of the night. A solid win, even if I would've personally wanted Sing Sing.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

A foregone conclusion. I don't hate this win, but I still think the steamrolling surge through the entire award season was a bit much. It is even more crazy when you take into account that it is a category fraud lead performance and that is Succession co-star Jeremy Strong was right there in a magnificent supporting turn as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice.

But it is hard not to be happy for Culkin and we have certainly seen far worse winners in this category over the years. 

His speeches, particularly this one where he called back his desire for more children based on a comment made by his wife Jazz, are always just so off-the-wall eccentric and I do think in this case it was the right mix of that quality while also having a bit more structure.

I do love that he did call out Jeremy Strong from the stage, especially considering how Strong and his Succession co-stars do have a bit of a strained history due to Strong's serious and more method approach to his acting.

Just to reiterate, this performance winning in Supporting is truly insane. 

He is in more than 60% of the 90 minute film. This is a record for a Supporting performance...and not one I think should be celebrated. Even compared to the Supporting Actress winner I will be discussing next, Culkin feels even more like a lead in that a lot of the film's tension and catalyst pushes come from his character...even if Jesse Eisenberg does have a tad more screentime. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I am not going to spend a lot of time on this one for obvious reasons, not just because of my hatred for the film, but because she too was another locked victor. 

I will reiterate that Saldana was far and way the best thing about that film, and despite the being handed truly abysmal material, she came out of it unscathed.

However, much like Culkin, she is a lead...and perhaps the true lead of the film even over Gascon.

In what world should Saldana and Grande, who are leading characters, be competing with Isabella Rossellini who is only in 7 minutes of Conclave; Felicity Jones, who only comes to prominence in the final hour or so of The Brutalist for roughly 40 minutes of screentime; and Monica Barbaro, who flits in and out of A Complete Unknown to a total of roughly 33 minutes.

Saldana had close to an hour; Grande had around 1 hour and 10 minutes!

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BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Despite some predicting Chalamet could take it in a last minute surge, I still felt that this was Brody's to lose. It also seemed like he had a lot of fans calling his work "the performance of the year", at least amongst the male performances.

I think Brody suffered, at least in my opinion, upon seeing the film as I didn't feel like it was as rapturous a portrayal as some made it out to be. He had some wonderful moments, particularly his crying scene near the beginning of the film when he learns that (spoiler alert of sorts) his wife survived the camps. 

I would still likely rank him 3rd in the category with the sterling work of Ralph Fiennes in 4th, and even if I would rank Chalamet in 5th, he did give a very good performance as Bob Dylan and was clearly committed to doing good work. It was certainly better musical biopic portrayal than, say, Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. 

For me, this category was about the two candidates who arguably had the least chance to win: Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan.

Stan's work as Trump was a bit of a masterclass in how to take in the essence of a real life person but not try to make it a caricature. As the film progresses, we watch him become more and more like the Trump we see today but it is a performance based around nailing the mannerisms and the tics along with, as I said, the essence. He also made Trump feel far more human than he ever actually deserves, but it was what the film needed.

 Domingo would've gotten my personal vote. What a truly vibrant and heartbreaking performance and one that I found showcased what a truly wonderful actor that he is and one that I have loved since I saw him in the fantastic Kander/Ebb musical The Scottsboro Boys. 

As for Brody, he's been here before. He pointed that out himself when he chose to demand them to cutoff the playoff music...something he also did when he surprisingly won this same award 22 years ago for The Pianist.

Nikki Glazer: "Oh look, it's two-time Holocaust survivor Adrien Brody!!"

Brody's speech certainly flirted with extreme pretentiousness, and it just felt unfair to a lot of other winners who may have gotten cut off throughout the night...something I wish had happened to the Emilia Perez songwriters.

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BEST ACTRESS

Mikey Madison, Anora


Words cannot express how much I love this selection.

Considering the fact they snubbed Marianne Jean-Baptiste from Hard Truths, my personal pick in this category was Mikey Madison.

This isn't to say I would've been unhappy with Fernanda Torres or Demi Moore or Cynthia Erivo winning. In fact, that quartet of women make for one of the strongest lineups I have seen in this category. Had they swapped out Gascon for MJB, it would've been an all-timer.

Demi Moore had the narrative plus the haul of the largest amount of televised precursor prizes. When she beat Madison at the Globes and then at CC, it seemed as though the buzz was shifting in her direction. 

Things took a shift when Anora began to dominate (more on that when discussing Best Picture) and that capped off by Madison winning at BAFTA right before Oscar voting had closed. 

Moore did comeback with SAG, but this was after voting ended with the Oscars. Still though, the passion for Moore was clear and her narrative was strong and her commitment to the role was apparent and thrilling. The question became: will Moore overcome the genre bias and the fact she didn't have an awards overdue narrative to take the prize OR would Madison win because she took a key industry award and was the face of the film deemed the BP frontrunner OR would the passion behind Fernanda Torres cause her to bubble up as more people discovered I'm Still Here.

I predicted Moore, but clearly knew Madison and Torres had a significant shot to take it. It does make sense in hindsight that Madison would benefit from being the face of the BP winner...which helped recent Actress winners like Frances McDormand for Nomadland and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Madison has received quite a bit of vitriol from online film forums as being too young and green and lacking charisma. On top of that, I keep seeing the phrase: "Any young actress could play that role".

Well...maybe to an extent, that is true. However, I am judging the actress who got the role. Madison's natural demeanor is shy and timid; a girl who grew up in LA and has a very chill and sunny vibe.

The character of Ani (whose official name is Anora) is a Brooklyn born and bred girl on the fringes of poverty who works at a club entertaining male clients...or not to sugarcoat it: a sex worker. She is brash and snarky and full of spunk. She has a lot of street smarts and is tough, but it is very clear that there is a lot she needs to learn about life. I don't really want to say any spoilers for anyone who hasn't seen the film, but for me, the amount of work she put in ranging from perfecting a Brighton Beach accent, learning Russian, learning how to pole dance, meeting with multiple sex workers to discuss their experiences, shows she put in the work and it paid off in spades.

I am curious to see what the trajectory is for Madison after this win. She is about to turn 26 and at such a young age and for a breakout role, this kind of win doesn't happen that often. You'd have to go back to Brie Larson winning for Room for the closest example. I do hope that she doesn't struggle to find work or that many feel she peaked too early, but frankly, I feel like she shows a significant amount of promise.

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BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker, Anora


Going into award season, Sean Baker was talked about a lot more as a Best Director possibility, but it felt like a choice based more around not truly knowing who the alternative was. Once The Brutalist took off, it did seem like Brady Corbet was going to lead the charge even if that film would lose Best Picture.

Things begin to change when Jon M. Chu, very randomly, won Director at CC...an award many felt would go to Corbet.

Then at DGA, some worried that if Corbet didn't win, it could go to Jacques Audiard...especially with the buzz that Emilia Perez was getting fresh off the wins at GG. I was a tad worried as by the time the award was announced, the controversy for the film had already begun, but voting had ended prior to it.

It wasn't Corbet...or Audiard...but Baker. This win at DGA changed everything.

But then, Corbet won the BAFTA which wasn't exactly surprising as they didn't take to Anora as a voting body, even though they were the major boost to Mikey Madison.

Something about Corbet seemed like a more natural fit for the Directing prize, considering what he accomplished on such a small budget while Baker's achievement seemed less grand by comparison. Many still predicted that Corbet would win, and I certainly thought he had a strong chance...but winning the DGA is pretty much strong sign you're also taking the Oscar.

In the last 15 years, only twice did the DGA winner not win at the Oscars. Sam Mendes lost to Bong Joon ho while Ben Affleck famously got snubbed for the Oscars despite winning Best Director everywhere else, which then led to Ang Lee getting his second Oscar.

So, Baker won as I expected and it certainly feels like a refreshing selection.

I do sort of wish Coralie Fargeat had played more of a role in this season with winning.

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BEST PICTURE

ANORA


Even though we've been seeing the Academy embrace films that didn't seem like typical Oscar fare for the last decade with the likes of Moonlight, The Shape of Water, Parasite, and Everything Everywhere All at Once, there still seems to be something very strange about Anora taking the prize.

It's not like it is the first time an indie film has won, but the film just feels so small and intimate. It is also a film that is modern with a female lead and deals with themes of sex work and class and capitalism...while also having a raunchy edge with slapstick comedy to boot. 

For those of us who saw Anora early on, I feel like we did the film something of a disservice by hyping it up so much...particularly when it managed to win the prestigious Palme d'or at the Cannes Film Festival almost a year ago.

When I saw the film in its first week of limited release back in October, it was being deemed as the early frontrunner but it also seemed like it was one of those frontrunners that would likely got unseated by something else. It didn't seem truly invincible like Oppenheimer, and that was very apparent when it got shutout of the Golden Globes.

With most of the award shows getting postponed right after due to the wildfires, the month of January became a month of speculation as to which film was now the frontrunner to win the Oscar...especially with Anora's Globe shutout.

I always suspected it could pull off the win at PGA, but this is where some suspected Conclave or even Wicked could gain the upper hand.

In one fell swoop over that weekend, Anora took Best Picture at CC despite strangely not winning any other award...and then it took PGA and got that surprise DGA win along with its expected WGA victory. Once the film lost at SAG and BAFTA to Conclave, that did open the door to a possible upset. 

While that kind of path to victory has happened with similar trajectories from Spotlight to Moonlight to Parasite...hmmm...maybe the "ight" rhyme is the key there...it still just felt too strange to stray from a film that won PGA/DGA/WGA. The only time a film lost Best Picture after winning that trifecta was Brokeback Mountain.

I think the crazy thing is that Sean Baker managed to sweep to such a degree that he broke a new record last night. With 4 wins, he becomes the first person since Walt Disney to win the most Oscars in one night...but Disney won for different projects. Baker is the first to win them all for one film...and I will admit, such a stat does seem crazy for a film like this. I am still not convinced he should've won for Editing, but regardless, I do love Baker's work and I love how he champions film and his politics within his choice of film content. 

This is the same man who just 10 years ago made Tangerine, a film about two trans sex workers that was shot on two iPhone 5s. I have considered him something of an indie auteur over the last decade and to see his work and a film like this recognized on such a scale makes me very happy. 

Perhaps seeing Anora early on allowed me to not be as affected by the hype in any way, but I did truly appreciate a lot about it and found it to be a very well done effort.

And now...let the 2025/26 award season begin!

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

LET'S HEAR IT FOR THE SEX WORKER! - My Final Winner Predictions for the 97th Academy Awards

 This has been quite the award season.

If there weren't controversies and smear campaigns galore, it was witnessing the true horror of many neighborhoods in the Los Angeles area getting decimated by wildfires.

January felt like the longest month ever in pretty much every respect. It seems like everyone I know has felt the same thing ranging from the political landscape, the wildfires, and then at the end of the month, Emilia Perez got blasted in the press via the rather heinous Tweets written by the film's titular star Karla Sofia Gascon.

I have thought about writing about that controversy here, but I do get the sense that the well has been drained and I am not sure what else I could contribute to that dialogue. However, I will reiterate that her Tweets and her relatively poor excuses at apologies have not made me the least bit sympathetic to her plight. It's just a shame because this should've been a time to celebrate the first openly trans person to receive an acting Oscar nomination...but it ended up becoming the straw that broke the camel's back considering the vitriol the film has received (and wholeheartedly deserves) was already adding to the discourse. Gascon was good in the film, more so when acting rather than having to sing, but I do feel like I personally wouldn't have nominated her in the end. There were other superior performances that deserved the slot...but I am getting off topic here. 

Unlike last year when it seemed like Oppenheimer was going to steamroll through the season by the time the Golden Globes occurred, we've had a bit of a back and forth in terms of what people thought might win Best Picture. In the last two weeks, Anora took a surge after winning the CC for Best Picture (the only award it won at that ceremony, strangely) and then the PGA for Best Picture, which I thought was a solid possibility. 

The real shocker was when Sean Baker won the DGA for Best Director when many expected that Brady Corbet would likely sweep the season for the rather remarkable directorial achievement he made on The Brutalist...but more to come on that race later.

I feel like we are going into Oscar night with most of the major races locked. I would still argue that even Best Picture seems pretty locked as well despite those who are still trying to downplay the success of Anora. 

We will start off with what seems to be one of the easiest calls of the night.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

#1 - Conclave

#2 - Nickel Boys

#3 - A Complete Unknown

#4 - Sing Sing

#5 - Emilia Perez


I don't see a world where anything else will take this. I understand that Nickel Boys won the WGA but that is also because Conclave was not eligible there. It is also clear that the film does seem to have more widespread support that Nickel Boys which was always on the bubble for slipping into the Best Picture race where I would argue that Conclave is likely the runner up for the prize...some even think it could still manage to come from behind to actually win the top honor.

I didn't review Conclave for my blog, but I did enjoy the film. It was entertaining and well-paced, but it didn't exactly leave me feeling super impressed. If it won in this category, I honestly wouldn't have any complaint about it...but I do feel Sing Sing and Nickel Boys would make far more compelling winners.

A Complete Unknown is basically just a banal musical biopic and doesn't really offer anything of note here, and I don't think it has a shot.

Emilia Perez is trash. Moving on. 

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

#1 - Anora

#2 - The Substance

#3 - A Real Pain

#4 - The Brutalist

#5 - September 5


This race is even more fascinating in that most people suspected this is where Sean Baker would get his due for Anora and I am still predicting that to happen...however, he lost the Golden Globe to Peter Straughn for Conclave (that award show combines the Screenplay categories) and the CC to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and then the BAFTA to Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain.

Baker DID win the WGA which I would still argue is the most important of the precursors, but I still feel like we could see something crazy here.

Prior to it getting snubbed for Best Picture, I thought A Real Pain posed the biggest threat here because it did have a very concise and witty script with strong dialogue and also had the added benefit of one of its actors sweeping in his category...and yet, despite the snub, Jesse Eisenberg won the BAFTA even with the film not getting any recognition there beyond Kieran Culkin. 

I still don't know if I will predict that to repeat at the Oscars. I am more inclined to think that Fargeat could pull off the upset a la Jordan Peele for Get Out. 

However, as I stated, Baker did win at WGA where he did beat Jesse Eisenberg but Fargeat was also not eligible there. 

I am going to stick with Anora here, and a lot of that is still due to how rare it is for a film to win in Screenplay without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. It used to happen a little more back in the days when there were only 5 Best Picture nominees. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won in Original Screenplay...even if the only Best Picture nominee it was competing against was The Aviator which never even made a big splash in that particular category the whole year. Also - justice for Eternal Sunshine which was easily the best film of 2004!

I just think it'll be crazy to see the prospect of A Real Pain winning Screenplay and Supporting Actor without a Best Picture nomination, but crazy things have happened.

(i.e. the year Coda broke so many stats)

So yes...I am going with Anora but I still feel like The Substance will be brewing close behind.

As for the other two, The Brutalist's script is arguably the worst thing about it...especially when you get to the second half when Corbet and Fastvold are like "Let's just try out everything we want to throw in a movie and that'll make it seem enthralling!". The film never becomes dull, but it becomes frustrating and eventually ends on a whimper.

September 5 has had one of the most bizarre awards journeys in that it had a few very passionate supporters while most of us just wrote it off. It did manage surprise BP nominations at the Globes and at PGA, but it does seem like the one film amongst the major contenders this year that was always just quietly sitting in the background...and full disclosure, I STILL HAVE NOT SEEN IT!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

#1- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

#2 - Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

#3 - Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

#4 - Yura Borisov, Anora

#5 - Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice


As I have already alluded to, Culkin has been stream-rolling this season in a similar vein to Ke Huy Kwan and DaVine Joy Randolph, but I am still a bit surprised by it. I get that he is a good in the role, but it doesn't seem that undeniable nor that much of a stretch than what he did on Succession...but that is the real key here. It is clear that the goodwill from his work on the final season of Succession is majorly factoring into his narrative...on top of the fact that he is a clear lead in his film.

It is Culkin's Succession co-star Jeremy Strong who gives the best performance in this category and would easily get my vote...and yet that is not going to happen.

People have been talking about if one of the other 3 men could've posed an upset at any of the precursors, but I think Pearce likely would've had his best shot at BAFTA...which didn't pan out, and he didn't even get a SAG nom.

Norton had the potential in my eyes to make a SAG upset since he's a veteran actor of great clout who never won a SAG or an Oscar for that matter...and his role of Pete Seeger was something of a departure for him...but not enough to get the traction for a win.

Then you have Yura Borisov, whose subtle work in Anora has managed to get him nominated at every major precursor this season. His quiet Igor does play into that trope of "villain who actually ends up wanting to side with the hero", but his screen presence does prove to be rather compelling. His final scenes help aid to this, especially with how he tends to Madison's titular character. I do know some had rumbled about him getting swept up in an Anora extravaganza, but I never bought into that. I do think the nomination is strictly his reward in the end...especially when he has two other supporting co-stars in his film, Eydelshteyn and Karren Karagulian, who were arguably just as worthy of this nomination...especially the latter. 

So yeah...Culkin won his Emmy and Golden Globes, now he is coming for an Oscar. Following in Jeremy Strong's footsteps as he won a Tony this past year, Culkin is starring in an upcoming Broadway revival of David Mamet's legendary Glengarry Glen Ross and could potentially net that award too. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

#1 - Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

#3 - Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

#3 - Ariana Grande, Wicked

#4 - Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

#5 - Felicity Jones, The Brutalist


This category underwhelms me in the sense that Saldana has been sweeping through the season for what is clearly that film's LEAD performance. 

On top of that, her biggest competition has arguably been Ariana Grande who is nearly just as much of a lead as Saldana is in her film.

At the other end of the spectrum you have Rossellini, whose performance is less than 10 minutes of screentime is what this award was built for...and yet, I am still not overly convinced she did do enough to warrant the nod. 

As much as I took issue with the second half of The Brutalist, a lot of what intrigued me most about that section was the introduction of Felicity Jones' Erszebet. I had never really taken much notice to Jones as an actress, but she truly dominates whenever she is onscreen portraying a woman who is clearly smarter than everyone in the room and yet doesn't entirely get credit for it. I would be inclined to wish she would win, but that is definitely not going to happen.

Monica Barbaro definitely snuck into this race after she popped up at SAG, but I do think her nomination shows there is a solid amount of support (likely from the elder sector of the Academy) for A Complete Unknown. 

After a whole season where the narrative seemed to be that Ariana Grande was #2 and could possibly pose a threat by winning at SAG, she never came through. Honestly, it reminds me a lot of last season when Robert Downey Jr kept winning but some were saying that Ryan Gosling's beloved work in Barbie could still potentially win at SAG, but it never came to be. Even on the anonymously released voter ballots that come out every year, usually about a dozen or so, Grande didn't even get a single vote from those. 

Saldana has not been affected by the Emilia Perez controversy, nor that of the ignorant comments made by Jacques Audiard and especially Karla Sofia Gascon...but instead, she will win with extreme category fraud for being the one in her atrocious film who actually truly comes out of the whole thing unscathed. 

I do really like Saldana, and I will gladly own up to really liking her work in the film...but I still just don't feel as thrilled with the win for various reasons.

I wish we could've seen some other contenders make it in here like:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Trine Dryholm, The Girl with the Needle

Carol Kane, Between the Temples

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BEST ACTOR:

#1 - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

#2 - Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

#3 - Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

#4 - Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

#5 - Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice


The path for Adrien Brody seems pretty strong. He won the Globe, the CC, and the BAFTA...but the one hurdle on his docket was SAG. Considering how The Brutalist underperformed there not even getting a nod for Guy Peace or Felicity Jones, it seemed like the opposite overperformance of A Complete Unknown and general overall popularity of Timothee Chalamet would lead to him taking the prize.

...which is exactly what happened.

Some thought Fiennes could upset at BAFTA and that his longtime overdue narrative would possibly translate into some last-minute buzz, but that didn't happen even when Conclave managed to beat Anora and The Brutalist at BAFTA.

I would like to express my love for Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan, the two also-rans in the category who happened to be my favorites.

Domingo is certainly on track to win an Oscar in the coming years with the amount of work he is due to churn out and the good will he has built up, but the passion and grit he gave in Sing Sing was nothing short of beautiful.

Stan had the task of playing someone who has some of the most passionate supporters and vehement detractors...and having to ride that line of getting criticism from both sides.

Stan's Trump is devoid of caricature tropes. He doesn't attempt to do a vocal impersonation, but he nails so many of the mannerisms down to a tee that by the end of the film, you see that a vile piece of work was born....well, Trump was basically always vile but you get the idea. 

The Apprentice was a better film than most gave it credit for. It didn't try to humanize or necessarily villainize Trump but just let the actions speak for themselves...and if his followers are upset, guess what, THE FILM JUST TOLD IT LIKE IT WAS!

The big thing about Chalamet's SAG win is that Oscar voting is already done. If there was to be a change of pace, I feel like his best bet would've been if the Oscars were a week or two later with voting extended. COULD he possibly take it? I think he could, but I still would be a little bit surprised.

Brody's performance is certainly strong, but I do think Chalamet will pose a slight challenge. It also doesn't hurt that while A Complete Unknown hasn't won any major Picture or Director prizes, the fact it keeps getting in, including a Director nomination for James Mangold which most people suspected would never happen, leads me to believe it could be enough to be a viable threat. 

Still going with Brody, though.

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BEST ACTRESS:

#1 - Demi Moore, The Substance

#2 - Mikey Madison, Anora

#3 - Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

#4 - Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

#5 - Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez


Gascon is clearly a non-entity here. It's a shame to cast aside this historic nomination but her demeanor, the work, and the film don't deserve praise. I will just leave it at that.

I am of the belief that this is something of a three-horserace. 

While statistically on paper, Demi Moore is the clear frontrunner here in terms of buzz and the number of televised awards she received.

Then you have Mikey Madison, who did win an industry prize at BAFTA and who just so happens to be in the film that could very well end up winning Best Picture.

And lastly, Fernanda Torres - whose win at the Golden Globes put her right in the limelight just in time for Oscar nomination voting to begin...and indirectly, the delays in voting caused by the wildfires only allowed for more voters to watch the film and fall in love with her...not to mention the film as it managed to slip into the Best Picture race with one of the more surprising nominations in recent memory (which is hilarious considering I was predicting the film way back in October/November only to drop it when it seemed like Emilia Perez and All We Imagine as Light were becoming the more prominent foreign films in the race.

I do want to give a quick moment to single out Cynthia Erivo. I still think she truly made Elphaba her own, which is saying something considering the dozens of women who have played the role and have been analyzed and obsessed about by various theatre fanatics over the last 20 years. The vulnerability and how she paced her performance in terms of maturity and her emotional journey even down to how she chose to sing the songs was a masterclass. I am honestly thrilled to see what she does in For Good, because if she sustains all of this, I truly think she should be right in front for next year's Best Actress campaign. 

I do want to single out some other performances that missed out: 

Angelina Jolie, Maria 

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

This might've been Jolie's best work, and while the film around her did suffer from being a little stuffy and distant and alienating, she gave such a heartbreaking performance.

Jean-Baptiste might've honestly given the best performance I have seen from last year and the fact she managed to win the critics trifecta is very telling. I kept hearing comments from people that it was a very one-note performance and that it makes the film unpleasant to watch. I would agree the film can be unpleasant but that is not to its detriment. 

Jean-Baptiste is also NOT one-note. Yes, she does have the volatile and aggressive anger towards people...something I frankly responded to if only for the fact her natural demeanor is so warm and lovely...but there are two key scenes in that film, one by a grave plot and another at her sister's home that truly make feel choked up at her work. 

I would've loved to see these two get into the race and they both had a shot, particularly MJB to the point that some were even predicting her to just slip in. 

Having said all that, who do I think is winning?

I do think I am going to stick with Demi Moore. We have seen these cases where the narrative of rewarding a veteran gets overshadowed by someone in an acclaimed performance in a stronger Best Picture player...but there is a big difference here: Madison may be in the likely Best Picture winner, but Moore is still in a Best Picture nominee, and I would argue one that ignited more of a spark in public interest.

Madison's win at BAFTA does signal there is strong support for her, and that was from a voting body that didn't even reward Anora with Film, Director, or Screenplay prizes. 

I do think it's close. I will go with Moore, but I do think Madison is not out of it and I also think Torres has a very good possibility of pulling off the upset.

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BEST DIRECTOR:

#1- Sean Baker, Anora

#2 - Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

#3 - Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

#4 - Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

#5 - James Mangold, A Complete Unknown


There was a weird feeling about the idea of Brady Corbet winning the Oscar...and yet, that seemed to be the path we were going down. 

It isn't that I necessarily thought he would be undeserving considering what he achieved shooting on film over a roughly month long shooting period on a flimsy $10 million budget is nothing short of astounding...but the final product is still erratic in my book...plus this is only his 3rd film. 

And yet...Sean Baker won DGA in a relative upset and changed that trajectory. From the earliest days of the season up until DGA, the consensus seemed to be that Anora seemed less like a Director movie and more like a winner that would coast on a Screenplay win. 

However, Baker's work is quite good and I championed it with a plea in my Oscar Nominations Reaction post. He has been a very solid indie filmmaker now for over a decade and I think this could be the moment he is ready to truly be invited into the club.

I am so glad that the Emilia Perez train got derailed and while Gascon is the face of most of that drama, Audiard frankly deserves to be raked over the coals quite a bit. His lack of care over Mexican culture and even wanting to research the country and drug cartels and the trans experience all reads as someone who clearly feels like he knows way more than he actually does...and the results are on the screen, but some people still kept lapping it up with their spoons.

I did legitimately have a fear that Audiard could pull off what Baker did, but columnist Jeff Sneider made a comment on an episode of FYC with Scott Mantz and Perri Nemiroff that the one film he kept hearing rumblings about from the industry was Anora and that it was the film that many had wished they made. 

Once Baker won the DGA, that observation made a lot more sense. 

I am honestly shocked Mangold is here, but I suppose this nomination can serve as a "welcome" considering his been doing solid work for years and has yet to receive a nomination; I just think it was at the expense of some stronger work.

I will say that if they want to go for a crazy visionary who truly made a film that went full on bonkers in its approach to the point where she literally held the camera to film the rather, ummm, chaotic final scene, Fargeat is right there. 

I do think Baker will eek this out, but it does still seem like Corbet get also squeeze by if enough people take into account what he was able to accomplish with so little.

I just think Fargeat could work as a happy chaotic medium...not that it would ever happen.

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BEST PICTURE:

#1 - ANORA

#2 - CONCLAVE

#3 - THE BRUTALIST

#4 - A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

#5 - THE SUBSTANCE

#6 - WICKED

#7 - I'M STILL HERE

#8 - EMILIA PEREZ

#9 - DUNE: PART TWO 

#10 - NICKEL BOYS


After last year in which Oppenheimer dominated with such intensity, we now have a season in which there is a little bit of doubt as we approach Oscar night. 

Statistically though, it seems as though Anora should be winning this. It won the Best Picture awards at CC and PGA while also winning a surprise DGA for Sean Baker and pulling off the WGA for Baker as well, though that was more expected. 

BUT - Anora also got shut out at SAG and the Golden Globes (not that the Globes matter as strongly) and it only managed to net Actress and Casting wins at BAFTA...which is interesting considering Actress is the category where Anora has been struggling at most in terms of likelihood of winning. 

Instead of The Brutalist, it appears that Conclave has emerged as the film that is arguably in second place, if not, the film that may actually take the prize in the end.

I think the one thing that gives me pause about Conclave was that it didn't win the PGA on a preferential ballot which is something that even films like Green Book and Coda were able to achieve. 

However, Conclave won Best Ensemble at SAG and also has the added bonus of winning at BAFTA while being the major frontrunner to win Adapted Screenplay and possibly take the crucial craft award that is Editing. 

While Conclave was ineligible for the WGA, it does seem extremely likely it would've won if nominated. Its path to victory would be very similar to that of films like Spotlight and Parasite.

One thing against Conclave that I sort of feel is that it just seems like it doesn't have a lot of passion. It did lose PGA, but it does seem like a big deal that it managed to win at SAG over Anora and perhaps the one film that I sort of thought may take it due to the nomination overhaul it received: Wicked. 

As someone who actually really liked Anora a lot, I do find it interesting how much vitriol the film has received from the online film forum/Film Twitter crowd. I am not claiming the film is a masterpiece...I would argue the only film here that flirts with such a claim is Dune: Part Two. However, I did find the film to be very enjoyable and very vibrant and loved a lot of the twists that Baker incorporated.

The biggest criticism I could give Anora is that Baker really should've trimmed about another 10-15 minutes off of the film. Upon a rewatch, I do feel like the film dragged a lot more in the second act whereas the first and final acts played a little better. He really could've tightened the pace a bit more, but honestly, it is the film I did appreciate the most here. 

I don't want to make it seem like this is bias, but I just feel that statistically, it does make more sense for me to predict Anora. Having said that, I really think Conclave could pull it off too and it won't surprise me in the least. 

What would I think of Conclave as a winner? It would be average. I did like the film and found it pretty entertaining and engaging, but as I have said before, it didn't necessarily "wow" me. It would not be as horrible as something like Crash or Green Book winning, but it would be on the higher-but-average side...and for a lot of the Best Picture winners in history, that isn't the worst place to be.

It doesn't seem surprising in hindsight that The Brutalist struggled like it did. I will say that for a 3.5 hour film, I do think it was paced very well and still kept me engaged...but all I keep hearing from various sources is that a lot of voters find the film to be very difficult to watch. 

As I have stated many times, my issue with the film stemmed from a messy and overambitious script that was the nearly fatal flaw of the second half. I can't support a film that drops off to that kind of degree, and it seems clear that many others agree.

 I do think at this point, Anora is the tentative frontrunner, but Conclave is nipping at its heels.

SO...I Am Officially a YouTuber! (AND A POSSIBLE FAREWELL TO THE BLOG)

It has been a long time coming, but I have finally started the YouTube channel I kept wanting to create for the last several years! The chan...