This has been quite the award season.
If there weren't controversies and smear campaigns galore, it was witnessing the true horror of many neighborhoods in the Los Angeles area getting decimated by wildfires.
January felt like the longest month ever in pretty much every respect. It seems like everyone I know has felt the same thing ranging from the political landscape, the wildfires, and then at the end of the month, Emilia Perez got blasted in the press via the rather heinous Tweets written by the film's titular star Karla Sofia Gascon.
I have thought about writing about that controversy here, but I do get the sense that the well has been drained and I am not sure what else I could contribute to that dialogue. However, I will reiterate that her Tweets and her relatively poor excuses at apologies have not made me the least bit sympathetic to her plight. It's just a shame because this should've been a time to celebrate the first openly trans person to receive an acting Oscar nomination...but it ended up becoming the straw that broke the camel's back considering the vitriol the film has received (and wholeheartedly deserves) was already adding to the discourse. Gascon was good in the film, more so when acting rather than having to sing, but I do feel like I personally wouldn't have nominated her in the end. There were other superior performances that deserved the slot...but I am getting off topic here.
Unlike last year when it seemed like Oppenheimer was going to steamroll through the season by the time the Golden Globes occurred, we've had a bit of a back and forth in terms of what people thought might win Best Picture. In the last two weeks, Anora took a surge after winning the CC for Best Picture (the only award it won at that ceremony, strangely) and then the PGA for Best Picture, which I thought was a solid possibility.
The real shocker was when Sean Baker won the DGA for Best Director when many expected that Brady Corbet would likely sweep the season for the rather remarkable directorial achievement he made on The Brutalist...but more to come on that race later.
I feel like we are going into Oscar night with most of the major races locked. I would still argue that even Best Picture seems pretty locked as well despite those who are still trying to downplay the success of Anora.
We will start off with what seems to be one of the easiest calls of the night.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Conclave
#2 - Nickel Boys
#3 - A Complete Unknown
#4 - Sing Sing
#5 - Emilia Perez
I don't see a world where anything else will take this. I understand that Nickel Boys won the WGA but that is also because Conclave was not eligible there. It is also clear that the film does seem to have more widespread support that Nickel Boys which was always on the bubble for slipping into the Best Picture race where I would argue that Conclave is likely the runner up for the prize...some even think it could still manage to come from behind to actually win the top honor.
I didn't review Conclave for my blog, but I did enjoy the film. It was entertaining and well-paced, but it didn't exactly leave me feeling super impressed. If it won in this category, I honestly wouldn't have any complaint about it...but I do feel Sing Sing and Nickel Boys would make far more compelling winners.
A Complete Unknown is basically just a banal musical biopic and doesn't really offer anything of note here, and I don't think it has a shot.
Emilia Perez is trash. Moving on.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
#1 - Anora
#2 - The Substance
#3 - A Real Pain
#4 - The Brutalist
#5 - September 5
This race is even more fascinating in that most people suspected this is where Sean Baker would get his due for Anora and I am still predicting that to happen...however, he lost the Golden Globe to Peter Straughn for Conclave (that award show combines the Screenplay categories) and the CC to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and then the BAFTA to Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain.
Baker DID win the WGA which I would still argue is the most important of the precursors, but I still feel like we could see something crazy here.
Prior to it getting snubbed for Best Picture, I thought A Real Pain posed the biggest threat here because it did have a very concise and witty script with strong dialogue and also had the added benefit of one of its actors sweeping in his category...and yet, despite the snub, Jesse Eisenberg won the BAFTA even with the film not getting any recognition there beyond Kieran Culkin.
I still don't know if I will predict that to repeat at the Oscars. I am more inclined to think that Fargeat could pull off the upset a la Jordan Peele for Get Out.
However, as I stated, Baker did win at WGA where he did beat Jesse Eisenberg but Fargeat was also not eligible there.
I am going to stick with Anora here, and a lot of that is still due to how rare it is for a film to win in Screenplay without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. It used to happen a little more back in the days when there were only 5 Best Picture nominees. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won in Original Screenplay...even if the only Best Picture nominee it was competing against was The Aviator which never even made a big splash in that particular category the whole year. Also - justice for Eternal Sunshine which was easily the best film of 2004!
I just think it'll be crazy to see the prospect of A Real Pain winning Screenplay and Supporting Actor without a Best Picture nomination, but crazy things have happened.
(i.e. the year Coda broke so many stats)
So yes...I am going with Anora but I still feel like The Substance will be brewing close behind.
As for the other two, The Brutalist's script is arguably the worst thing about it...especially when you get to the second half when Corbet and Fastvold are like "Let's just try out everything we want to throw in a movie and that'll make it seem enthralling!". The film never becomes dull, but it becomes frustrating and eventually ends on a whimper.
September 5 has had one of the most bizarre awards journeys in that it had a few very passionate supporters while most of us just wrote it off. It did manage surprise BP nominations at the Globes and at PGA, but it does seem like the one film amongst the major contenders this year that was always just quietly sitting in the background...and full disclosure, I STILL HAVE NOT SEEN IT!
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
#1- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
#2 - Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
#3 - Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
#4 - Yura Borisov, Anora
#5 - Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
As I have already alluded to, Culkin has been stream-rolling this season in a similar vein to Ke Huy Kwan and DaVine Joy Randolph, but I am still a bit surprised by it. I get that he is a good in the role, but it doesn't seem that undeniable nor that much of a stretch than what he did on Succession...but that is the real key here. It is clear that the goodwill from his work on the final season of Succession is majorly factoring into his narrative...on top of the fact that he is a clear lead in his film.
It is Culkin's Succession co-star Jeremy Strong who gives the best performance in this category and would easily get my vote...and yet that is not going to happen.
People have been talking about if one of the other 3 men could've posed an upset at any of the precursors, but I think Pearce likely would've had his best shot at BAFTA...which didn't pan out, and he didn't even get a SAG nom.
Norton had the potential in my eyes to make a SAG upset since he's a veteran actor of great clout who never won a SAG or an Oscar for that matter...and his role of Pete Seeger was something of a departure for him...but not enough to get the traction for a win.
Then you have Yura Borisov, whose subtle work in Anora has managed to get him nominated at every major precursor this season. His quiet Igor does play into that trope of "villain who actually ends up wanting to side with the hero", but his screen presence does prove to be rather compelling. His final scenes help aid to this, especially with how he tends to Madison's titular character. I do know some had rumbled about him getting swept up in an Anora extravaganza, but I never bought into that. I do think the nomination is strictly his reward in the end...especially when he has two other supporting co-stars in his film, Eydelshteyn and Karren Karagulian, who were arguably just as worthy of this nomination...especially the latter.
So yeah...Culkin won his Emmy and Golden Globes, now he is coming for an Oscar. Following in Jeremy Strong's footsteps as he won a Tony this past year, Culkin is starring in an upcoming Broadway revival of David Mamet's legendary Glengarry Glen Ross and could potentially net that award too.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
#1 - Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
#3 - Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
#3 - Ariana Grande, Wicked
#4 - Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
#5 - Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
This category underwhelms me in the sense that Saldana has been sweeping through the season for what is clearly that film's LEAD performance.
On top of that, her biggest competition has arguably been Ariana Grande who is nearly just as much of a lead as Saldana is in her film.
At the other end of the spectrum you have Rossellini, whose performance is less than 10 minutes of screentime is what this award was built for...and yet, I am still not overly convinced she did do enough to warrant the nod.
As much as I took issue with the second half of The Brutalist, a lot of what intrigued me most about that section was the introduction of Felicity Jones' Erszebet. I had never really taken much notice to Jones as an actress, but she truly dominates whenever she is onscreen portraying a woman who is clearly smarter than everyone in the room and yet doesn't entirely get credit for it. I would be inclined to wish she would win, but that is definitely not going to happen.
Monica Barbaro definitely snuck into this race after she popped up at SAG, but I do think her nomination shows there is a solid amount of support (likely from the elder sector of the Academy) for A Complete Unknown.
After a whole season where the narrative seemed to be that Ariana Grande was #2 and could possibly pose a threat by winning at SAG, she never came through. Honestly, it reminds me a lot of last season when Robert Downey Jr kept winning but some were saying that Ryan Gosling's beloved work in Barbie could still potentially win at SAG, but it never came to be. Even on the anonymously released voter ballots that come out every year, usually about a dozen or so, Grande didn't even get a single vote from those.
Saldana has not been affected by the Emilia Perez controversy, nor that of the ignorant comments made by Jacques Audiard and especially Karla Sofia Gascon...but instead, she will win with extreme category fraud for being the one in her atrocious film who actually truly comes out of the whole thing unscathed.
I do really like Saldana, and I will gladly own up to really liking her work in the film...but I still just don't feel as thrilled with the win for various reasons.
I wish we could've seen some other contenders make it in here like:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Trine Dryholm, The Girl with the Needle
Carol Kane, Between the Temples
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BEST ACTOR:
#1 - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
#2 - Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
#3 - Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
#4 - Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
#5 - Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
The path for Adrien Brody seems pretty strong. He won the Globe, the CC, and the BAFTA...but the one hurdle on his docket was SAG. Considering how The Brutalist underperformed there not even getting a nod for Guy Peace or Felicity Jones, it seemed like the opposite overperformance of A Complete Unknown and general overall popularity of Timothee Chalamet would lead to him taking the prize.
...which is exactly what happened.
Some thought Fiennes could upset at BAFTA and that his longtime overdue narrative would possibly translate into some last-minute buzz, but that didn't happen even when Conclave managed to beat Anora and The Brutalist at BAFTA.
I would like to express my love for Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan, the two also-rans in the category who happened to be my favorites.
Domingo is certainly on track to win an Oscar in the coming years with the amount of work he is due to churn out and the good will he has built up, but the passion and grit he gave in Sing Sing was nothing short of beautiful.
Stan had the task of playing someone who has some of the most passionate supporters and vehement detractors...and having to ride that line of getting criticism from both sides.
Stan's Trump is devoid of caricature tropes. He doesn't attempt to do a vocal impersonation, but he nails so many of the mannerisms down to a tee that by the end of the film, you see that a vile piece of work was born....well, Trump was basically always vile but you get the idea.
The Apprentice was a better film than most gave it credit for. It didn't try to humanize or necessarily villainize Trump but just let the actions speak for themselves...and if his followers are upset, guess what, THE FILM JUST TOLD IT LIKE IT WAS!
The big thing about Chalamet's SAG win is that Oscar voting is already done. If there was to be a change of pace, I feel like his best bet would've been if the Oscars were a week or two later with voting extended. COULD he possibly take it? I think he could, but I still would be a little bit surprised.
Brody's performance is certainly strong, but I do think Chalamet will pose a slight challenge. It also doesn't hurt that while A Complete Unknown hasn't won any major Picture or Director prizes, the fact it keeps getting in, including a Director nomination for James Mangold which most people suspected would never happen, leads me to believe it could be enough to be a viable threat.
Still going with Brody, though.
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BEST ACTRESS:
#1 - Demi Moore, The Substance
#2 - Mikey Madison, Anora
#3 - Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
#4 - Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
#5 - Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Gascon is clearly a non-entity here. It's a shame to cast aside this historic nomination but her demeanor, the work, and the film don't deserve praise. I will just leave it at that.
I am of the belief that this is something of a three-horserace.
While statistically on paper, Demi Moore is the clear frontrunner here in terms of buzz and the number of televised awards she received.
Then you have Mikey Madison, who did win an industry prize at BAFTA and who just so happens to be in the film that could very well end up winning Best Picture.
And lastly, Fernanda Torres - whose win at the Golden Globes put her right in the limelight just in time for Oscar nomination voting to begin...and indirectly, the delays in voting caused by the wildfires only allowed for more voters to watch the film and fall in love with her...not to mention the film as it managed to slip into the Best Picture race with one of the more surprising nominations in recent memory (which is hilarious considering I was predicting the film way back in October/November only to drop it when it seemed like Emilia Perez and All We Imagine as Light were becoming the more prominent foreign films in the race.
I do want to give a quick moment to single out Cynthia Erivo. I still think she truly made Elphaba her own, which is saying something considering the dozens of women who have played the role and have been analyzed and obsessed about by various theatre fanatics over the last 20 years. The vulnerability and how she paced her performance in terms of maturity and her emotional journey even down to how she chose to sing the songs was a masterclass. I am honestly thrilled to see what she does in For Good, because if she sustains all of this, I truly think she should be right in front for next year's Best Actress campaign.
I do want to single out some other performances that missed out:
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
This might've been Jolie's best work, and while the film around her did suffer from being a little stuffy and distant and alienating, she gave such a heartbreaking performance.
Jean-Baptiste might've honestly given the best performance I have seen from last year and the fact she managed to win the critics trifecta is very telling. I kept hearing comments from people that it was a very one-note performance and that it makes the film unpleasant to watch. I would agree the film can be unpleasant but that is not to its detriment.
Jean-Baptiste is also NOT one-note. Yes, she does have the volatile and aggressive anger towards people...something I frankly responded to if only for the fact her natural demeanor is so warm and lovely...but there are two key scenes in that film, one by a grave plot and another at her sister's home that truly make feel choked up at her work.
I would've loved to see these two get into the race and they both had a shot, particularly MJB to the point that some were even predicting her to just slip in.
Having said all that, who do I think is winning?
I do think I am going to stick with Demi Moore. We have seen these cases where the narrative of rewarding a veteran gets overshadowed by someone in an acclaimed performance in a stronger Best Picture player...but there is a big difference here: Madison may be in the likely Best Picture winner, but Moore is still in a Best Picture nominee, and I would argue one that ignited more of a spark in public interest.
Madison's win at BAFTA does signal there is strong support for her, and that was from a voting body that didn't even reward Anora with Film, Director, or Screenplay prizes.
I do think it's close. I will go with Moore, but I do think Madison is not out of it and I also think Torres has a very good possibility of pulling off the upset.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
#1- Sean Baker, Anora
#2 - Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
#3 - Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
#4 - Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
#5 - James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
There was a weird feeling about the idea of Brady Corbet winning the Oscar...and yet, that seemed to be the path we were going down.
It isn't that I necessarily thought he would be undeserving considering what he achieved shooting on film over a roughly month long shooting period on a flimsy $10 million budget is nothing short of astounding...but the final product is still erratic in my book...plus this is only his 3rd film.
And yet...Sean Baker won DGA in a relative upset and changed that trajectory. From the earliest days of the season up until DGA, the consensus seemed to be that Anora seemed less like a Director movie and more like a winner that would coast on a Screenplay win.
However, Baker's work is quite good and I championed it with a plea in my Oscar Nominations Reaction post. He has been a very solid indie filmmaker now for over a decade and I think this could be the moment he is ready to truly be invited into the club.
I am so glad that the Emilia Perez train got derailed and while Gascon is the face of most of that drama, Audiard frankly deserves to be raked over the coals quite a bit. His lack of care over Mexican culture and even wanting to research the country and drug cartels and the trans experience all reads as someone who clearly feels like he knows way more than he actually does...and the results are on the screen, but some people still kept lapping it up with their spoons.
I did legitimately have a fear that Audiard could pull off what Baker did, but columnist Jeff Sneider made a comment on an episode of FYC with Scott Mantz and Perri Nemiroff that the one film he kept hearing rumblings about from the industry was Anora and that it was the film that many had wished they made.
Once Baker won the DGA, that observation made a lot more sense.
I am honestly shocked Mangold is here, but I suppose this nomination can serve as a "welcome" considering his been doing solid work for years and has yet to receive a nomination; I just think it was at the expense of some stronger work.
I will say that if they want to go for a crazy visionary who truly made a film that went full on bonkers in its approach to the point where she literally held the camera to film the rather, ummm, chaotic final scene, Fargeat is right there.
I do think Baker will eek this out, but it does still seem like Corbet get also squeeze by if enough people take into account what he was able to accomplish with so little.
I just think Fargeat could work as a happy chaotic medium...not that it would ever happen.
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BEST PICTURE:
#1 - ANORA
#2 - CONCLAVE
#3 - THE BRUTALIST
#4 - A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
#5 - THE SUBSTANCE
#6 - WICKED
#7 - I'M STILL HERE
#8 - EMILIA PEREZ
#9 - DUNE: PART TWO
#10 - NICKEL BOYS
After last year in which Oppenheimer dominated with such intensity, we now have a season in which there is a little bit of doubt as we approach Oscar night.
Statistically though, it seems as though Anora should be winning this. It won the Best Picture awards at CC and PGA while also winning a surprise DGA for Sean Baker and pulling off the WGA for Baker as well, though that was more expected.
BUT - Anora also got shut out at SAG and the Golden Globes (not that the Globes matter as strongly) and it only managed to net Actress and Casting wins at BAFTA...which is interesting considering Actress is the category where Anora has been struggling at most in terms of likelihood of winning.
Instead of The Brutalist, it appears that Conclave has emerged as the film that is arguably in second place, if not, the film that may actually take the prize in the end.
I think the one thing that gives me pause about Conclave was that it didn't win the PGA on a preferential ballot which is something that even films like Green Book and Coda were able to achieve.
However, Conclave won Best Ensemble at SAG and also has the added bonus of winning at BAFTA while being the major frontrunner to win Adapted Screenplay and possibly take the crucial craft award that is Editing.
While Conclave was ineligible for the WGA, it does seem extremely likely it would've won if nominated. Its path to victory would be very similar to that of films like Spotlight and Parasite.
One thing against Conclave that I sort of feel is that it just seems like it doesn't have a lot of passion. It did lose PGA, but it does seem like a big deal that it managed to win at SAG over Anora and perhaps the one film that I sort of thought may take it due to the nomination overhaul it received: Wicked.
As someone who actually really liked Anora a lot, I do find it interesting how much vitriol the film has received from the online film forum/Film Twitter crowd. I am not claiming the film is a masterpiece...I would argue the only film here that flirts with such a claim is Dune: Part Two. However, I did find the film to be very enjoyable and very vibrant and loved a lot of the twists that Baker incorporated.
The biggest criticism I could give Anora is that Baker really should've trimmed about another 10-15 minutes off of the film. Upon a rewatch, I do feel like the film dragged a lot more in the second act whereas the first and final acts played a little better. He really could've tightened the pace a bit more, but honestly, it is the film I did appreciate the most here.
I don't want to make it seem like this is bias, but I just feel that statistically, it does make more sense for me to predict Anora. Having said that, I really think Conclave could pull it off too and it won't surprise me in the least.
What would I think of Conclave as a winner? It would be average. I did like the film and found it pretty entertaining and engaging, but as I have said before, it didn't necessarily "wow" me. It would not be as horrible as something like Crash or Green Book winning, but it would be on the higher-but-average side...and for a lot of the Best Picture winners in history, that isn't the worst place to be.
It doesn't seem surprising in hindsight that The Brutalist struggled like it did. I will say that for a 3.5 hour film, I do think it was paced very well and still kept me engaged...but all I keep hearing from various sources is that a lot of voters find the film to be very difficult to watch.
As I have stated many times, my issue with the film stemmed from a messy and overambitious script that was the nearly fatal flaw of the second half. I can't support a film that drops off to that kind of degree, and it seems clear that many others agree.
I do think at this point, Anora is the tentative frontrunner, but Conclave is nipping at its heels.
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