Before I get into discussing the Top 8 categories, I still have not seen the following major contenders:
A Complete Unknown
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
September 5
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Happy Oscars Day everyone! I hope you like trash!
Let me give you a list of films that received 13 or 14 Oscar nominations from the Academy's nearly 100-year history. Just for reference, "14" is the biggest number of nominations a film has received. Those 3 films were All About Eve, La La Land, and Titanic.
But for 13 nominations, here is the list:
Gone With the Wind
From Here to Eternity
Mary Poppins
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
Forrest Gump
Shakespeare in Love
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Chicago
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The King's Speech
Lincoln
The Revenant
The Shape of Water
Oppenheimer
...now, I am not claiming that all of these films are necessarily amazing or a personal favorite of mine, but a lot of these films are still pretty respected to varying degrees.
And as of today, Emilia Perez joins the group...and I cannot express my disdain enough.
I can't say that I am a supporter of Gone with the Wind, but imagine telling someone that Emilia Perez and Gone with the Wind both got the same amount of Oscar nominations????
I cannot for the life of me understand how the industry embraced that film while a lot of audiences and various critics looked at the film and immediately said: "What the absolute fuck is this?"
I have already ranted enough about this film, and probably will do so again as we go through these categories, so let's just begin with Screenplay categories and go from there:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PEREZ
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING
While I have not seen A Complete Unknown yet, it does seem a bit crazy to me that what by all accounts is a pretty straightforward generic musical biopic got embraced this much. Then again, I shouldn't be THAT shocked. It is the old-fashioned definition of "Oscar bait"...and we do still get these kinds of films every year that seemingly the more traditional voters within the Academy cling to.
Nickel Boys is a film I am dying to see based on the division it has caused in some circles for the risks RaMell Ross took as a director...and there are people I know whose opinions I highly respect that do love the film so I would like to think this nomination is richly deserved. We shall see once I finally see the film within the next month.
As for the other three, Sing Sing would get my vote...but Conclave seems like the one that is on the path to victory here. I didn't write a review for it when I watched it back in November, but it wasn't because I disliked it. Conclave was a very well made and handsome film that was entertaining and a pretty easy watch...but it didn't necessarily "WOW" me. It winning this category certainly wouldn't upset me that much, but I wouldn't consider it an all-timer selection.
Sing Sing got unfairly shafted throughout most of award season and I think a lot of that has to be placed at the feet of A24, who did seem far more invested in putting their focus on The Brutalist which does seem like its on the path of being a possible frontrunner for Best Picture. I just thought everything about Sing Sing worked so beautifully. It could've been preachy and maudlin and mawkish, but it came off as incredibly endearing and bittersweet while also giving us the punch it needed to about the prison system.
And a beautiful film like that has to share this category with the absolute utter trash that is Emilia Perez. If they really wanted to slot a musical here, I would say that Wicked was far more deserving of that honor...and sure, maybe that film wasn't perfect, but it was incredibly entertaining. I do think the extended runtime did help the storyline actually breathe and it makes the stage show feel insanely rushed in hindsight. I actually have high hopes that Wicked: For Good will stick the landing and actually further improve upon "Act Two" which does suffer from the usual stigma that Act Two's of musicals often have unless they are something like Into the Woods.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5
THE SUBSTANCE
It almost reminds me of when United 93 came out, although I was one of that film's biggest champions at the time.
The Brutalist feels like one of those Screenplay nominations that a Best Picture frontrunner just gets because of its status rather than the true quality of the Screenplay. It is a film that is truly a "Director" film in my eyes...and even if the film did stick the landing (which it did not...see my review -here-), I am not sure I would've supported a win.
A Real Pain is a film that I really enjoyed as I watched it, but as the weeks pass, I feel a little less enthused about it. It isn't that I hated it, but I am not sure it is a film that had that strong of a screenplay.
I did consider it to be a dark horse to win here, but since it lost out on a Best Picture nod, I don't think it'll happen. It is extremely rare for a film to win for its Screenplay when it doesn't get a corresponding Picture nomination. In fact, the last time it happened was 20 years ago this year when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won in this category...and I still bemoan the fact that film didn't get a Best Picture nomination when it should've WON.
The real race here should be between Anora and The Substance, but at the moment, the tide seems to be going in Anora's direction and considering I do think that film still has a shot at winning Best Picture, that makes me feel a bit more confident.
I will say that The Substance has grown on me in the months since I have watched it, and if we are talking truly "original" and vibrant works, Fargeat would be a very strong choice to take this for her work.
I am at a point where I clearly cannot make a top 10 list for 2024 yet, but I will say as of now, that Anora will be vying for a lofty slot on that list and my biased opinion is that while I think it will win here, I think it also deserves it.
Sean Baker has been doing such great work for years, and it would be wonderful to see him get recognized for what is his best film to date. It manages to blend so much genre styles and little gems of plot twists to create a structure that sort of feels messy and meandering in the best ways. I know some have come to attack the film for this reason, but maybe the fact I saw it early on when it was first released here in NY made me feel less effected by the buzz.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Then - in the film's 20 minutes, he gets his chance to shine. I am not saying it is big or flashy, but it is effective...and I won't say much more about it to avoid spoilers, but I do love seeing a performance like this get recognized.
I cannot comment on Edward Norton's work, but it sounds like the role is a pretty decent change of pace for him, so I am intrigued to see what he does.
Guy Pearce is more of an interesting case for me as I really love seeing this man get a long overdue Oscar nomination that he truly deserved nearly 25 years ago for Memento, but I was not as passionate about his work in The Brutalist. I do think his performance was very much in vogue of how people of his character's stature acted in the 1950s, but I really think a lot of what makes his work suffer is the script.
Then you have Kieran Culkin, who has been steamrolling this season almost as intensely as Ke Huy Kuan and DaVine Joy Randolph...and while it is very good work, I am not sure he is THAT undeniable and it is also clearly a Lead performance.
My personal vote would go to that of his Succession co-star Jeremy Strong, who gets to tackle the diabolical real-life supervillain that was Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. This was perfect casting in that Strong can truly give himself those dead eyes that Cohn had...and had worked so well for certain moments on Succession, but the performance is also not a caricature. He doesn't try to go for a mimic in terms of the voice, but he captures Cohn's mannerisms and body language to a tee...even down to Cohn's tic to tapping his tongue on teeth at the end of sentences.
I will be happy for Culkin, and it would be deserving on merit even if the performance isn't Supporting...and I do think Culkin was the clear rightful winner over Strong for the final season of Succession...but this one truthfully should go to Strong.
Lastly, it is a shame that Clarence Maclin couldn't make it in for Sing Sing. I am grateful that he managed to get in for the Screenplay nod, but I feel like he was on par with his exquisite co-star that we will be discussing shortly.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
As for the other 4, this category is kind of laughable...and I don't mean that in terms of the performances but how unfair it is.
Saldana is the CLEAR LEAD of her film, while Grande is definitely a co-lead.
Then you have Felicity Jones, who does have a lot of screentime in The Brutalist, but she is pretty much confined to the second half of the film (I would argue she is the best aspect of the film's second half) and Isabella Rossellini, who has less than 10 minutes of screentime in Conclave.
How fair is it really to pit a performance like Rossellini's, which is the kind of work that this category was made for, with someone like Saldana who the story mostly revolves around even over Gascon at times?
As I stated in my review of the film, Saldana is easily the best thing about Emilia Perez and she came out of it with a very good performance despite the material she was given...but that, combined with the fact that she is not in the right category and I just don't think this film deserves the recognition, she should not be winning this.
I feel hypocritical though, because I would be far more excited to see Grande swoop in to win at CC and SAG and then take the Oscar...but considering how these precursor awards have embraced Emilia Perez and the fact it just joined a group of films that have the second most nominations that a film has ever received (....that still hurts me to type...), Saldana could very well steamroll through the rest of this.
I am sad that Margaret Qualley couldn't make it in here, and it is a shame that Danielle Deadwyler just can't catch a break with Oscar voters.
It also looks like Jamie Lee Curtis couldn't work her campaigning magic this time around...but I can't comment on that performance since The Last Showgirl is one of the film's I still haven't seen.
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BEST ACTOR:
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Sebastian Stan getting this nomination is so richly deserved because, much like his co-star Strong, he does such a magnificent job at playing Trump not as a caricature but capturing his essence so perfectly...especially as his age progresses throughout the film. The big thing about The Apprentice is that it is a film that is far easier a watch than many may give it credit for. It doesn't try to preach to you in any way other than to just let history speak for itself...and yes, history proves Trump was an evil jackass who became even more of an evil jackass...but the man is human, a vile one but still a human. Stan truly deserves this nomination, and I am so glad he got in. I also hope it gets under Trump's skin and ruins his day.
As for the other 4, they have been locked in since October it feels like...even when basically no one had seen A Complete Unknown...nor can I comment on Chalamet yet.
Fiennes does sterling work here, but I do feel the nomination is his reward.
The race seems to be Brody with Chalamet nipping at his heels as I do agree with many pundits that I can see a world in which Chalamet wins at SAG and can take over the narrative of winning the Oscar...and it seems far more plausible with how much the film has been embraced by SAG, BAFTA, and now with the Academy.
Considering Brody won an Oscar and hasn't been on the scene as visibly in the last 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if that works against him...even if the Academy was willing to give Frances McDormand a THIRD Oscar for a relatively okay performance in Nomadland just 3 years after she won her 2nd or giving Emma Stone a 2nd just 7 years after she won a richly UNDESERVED Oscar for La La Land.
However, I think Brody can still do it and that the performance backs him up...but I also feel like I might be more inclined to give my personal vote to Colman Domingo.
Domingo is having a moment, and it is glorious! This is a such a beautiful performance with such passion, and he anchors that ensemble with such a force and I do think that while this won't be his year in the end, an Oscar will likely be right around the corner with him.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
I am still so bummed that I have not seen I'm Still Here and I cannot wait to do so. I was a huge fan of Walter Salles' 1998 film Central Station which he made with Torres' mother Fernanda Montenegro, who managed to get the first Lead Actress nomination for a performance in a Brazilian film. Not to speak for everyone, but there does seem to be an overwhelming consensus in the filmgoing community that Montenegro was robbed of the Oscar at the expense of Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love...and that she, or Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth, would've been far superior choices.
Yes, I agree. I absolutely fucking agree.
I hope to post a review for I'm Still Here once I manage to see it.
I did originally have doubts about Erivo as being the candidate who gets in everywhere but then gets snubbed...but I am so glad to see her make it in here! As someone who has seen and heard several Elphaba performances over the years, there is something so tender and vulnerable and sweet about Erivo's portrayal of her. This is a girl who was essentially neglected by her father and made to be thought of as a vile creature her entire life...and in the end, she clearly has a heart in there which Erivo brings out so strongly. By the time we reach "Defying Gravity", everything is in place for her to be the one who will do "No Good Deed" ever again as we shall all see this coming November.
Gascon made history as the first openly trans female to be nominated for an acting Oscar...and while I do want to champion this achievement, I am still not sure her performance was worthy enough to make this lineup, especially when the likes of Marianne Jean-Baptiste and even Angelina Jolie were left off in her wake. I would even argue that her co-star Zoe Saldana would've made a far better option strictly in terms of the overall performance.
As of this exact moment, the race seems to be between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore...but with the tragedy of the wildfires, we are delayed in finding out who will win the CC. Moore managed to beat Madison at the Globes which I thought was possible, but I still thought Madison was more of the frontrunner.
This is what I find amazing about the prospect of either Madison or Moore winning: neither of them seem like a typical awards-baity performance.
Madison is youthful and edgy and foul-mouthed while Moore is in a body horror film that also flirts with comedic elements and "hagsplotation". And yet, the buzz seems to be shifting in Moore's favor. I could see a world where Madison wins CC but then Moore wins SAG. I am a little torn as to what might happen at BAFTA. There are even some thinking Erivo could swoop in and take SAG, which isn't exactly impossible although I am not predicting that. SAG did go hog-wild for Wicked as evidenced by the bonkers nod for Jonathan Bailey...and that is why some think even Grande could overtake Saldana.
One could argue that both Erivo and Grande can wait and that we can honor them next year, but who is to say if that will even pan out? For all we know, the second half will somehow be far worse or each of them will face performances that are too undeniable. Upon seeing the film, I was more into Grande's work, but I keep going back to thinking about Erivo. I kind of hope both of them can get their flowers in some way, either this year or next year.
Moore would make for a wonderful winner, but she also lacks screentime considering a lot of her film is shared with Margaret Qualley...whereas Mikey Madison is Anora and Anora is Mikey Madison through and through.
However, I could see Madison falling prey to being too modern and edgy a performance in a similar vein as Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman, who also happened to be a critical favorite who snuck out a CC win and was hugely popular with film fanatics only to then got shafted by the majority of the major precursors.
I could see a world where Madison takes CC but then loses SAG to Moore and potentially BAFTA as well...but to be clear, I would be happy to see Moore win this. I would be happy to Erivo take it honestly!
I even expect to adore Torres based on how rapturous of a response she and that film has gotten!
I suppose Madison would get my personal vote if I had to choose, but I do think the tide is currently shifting into Moore's favor.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
When he got nominated at DGA, seemingly every pundit immediately wrote him off as being one of those typical banal DGA picks that won't translate to the Oscar. I also thought that Edward Berger for Conclave had the potential to also be left off the list, which DID happen, but Mangold managed to make it in for what is seemingly just a simple musical biopic.
Yes, I know. I haven't seen it yet...but I do have to say with complete confidence: Denis Villeneuve was robbed. He infamously got snubbed for the first one, and with Part Two, he outdid himself. He should've been here, at least over some of these nominees.
I know many are sad that RaMell Ross' critical success did not translate to mainstream awards recognition, and it does seem like the POV choice that he uses has been received a bit more erratically by some.
As someone who greatly enjoyed Wicked, I am not entirely sure I would've nominated Jon M. Chu here nor did he really have that strong of a shot, but I am thrilled to see Coralie Fargeat here as her vision was bold and striking and completely unlike what we normally see in the Director category...or at the Oscars in general. I think the film has grown on me, and a lot of that was due to realizing how much of the film works because of how much Fargeat just goes balls to the wall. She is so hands on with her work that she is holding the camera during the absolutely bonkers final scene in the auditorium.
The tide does seem to be shifting in Brady Corbet's direction, even if The Brutalist doesn't end up winning Best Picture...but I do want to express two things:
A solid plea for Sean Baker AND a concern for Jacques Audiard.
Audiard has always been a solid filmmaker, and he was even responsible for one of my top 5 favorite films of 2009: A Prophet. I do have a genuine fear that Emilia Perez could very well end up winning at SAG, PGA, and that Audiard could even take DGA and BAFTA. The fact that the film got as many nominations as it did only make this concern of mine even more heightened.
Emilia Perez could've been directed by David Lynch as his last swan song before his passing and I would still not to see it rewarded with anything. It would be an absolute black hole (or Black Lodge if you will...) on his legacy. I truly do fear of this path, and I pray that I am wrong about this.
Sean Baker is at the opposite end of this as he has mostly been known as an indie filmmaker on the fringes for years, with only one film truly inching close to Oscar consideration which was 2017's The Florida Project. Although, his status on the international film stage is firmly in place after he managed to win the Palme D'or at Cannes for Anora.
I do think you could make the case that it would make more sense to honor Baker for his screenplay rather than his direction, but I do think he does an absolutely splendid job directing this. The genre shifts are not easy to do and not every director can pull that off. I would like to think that if anyone were to derail the Corbet train, it would Baker...although my fear is that Audiard is the one with the steam.
Corbet is in an interesting position as this is only his 3rd feature film, but what he accomplishes with such a small budget is...hyperbole be damned...nothing short of astounding.
Even if I may take issue with the film from a script standpoint, I cannot begrudge him the Oscar win here...even if the final product would likely cost him my personal vote in the end. It is hard not to get swept up into the epic nature of this film.
All I ask is that anyone but Audiard wins, but I would love to put the good vibes out into the universe for Baker and Fargeat.
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BEST PICTURE:
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
I'M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED
As a list of nominees though, it is certainly not the weakest I have seen. I would argue 2022 as a year for film and the roster of films nominated were way weaker. Even 2021 was a year in which I liked the output more than 2024 but thought the eventual Oscar nominees were relatively lackluster.
The big story of nomination morning was that I'm Still Here managed to slip into this category despite having no real presence in any of the precursors beyond mentions for it in International Feature or the Golden Globe win for Torres. The common theme here is that the delay in final voting due to the fires actually may have benefitted the film...but perhaps even more crazy was that I made a post on Facebook way back in November in which I predicted what I thought would be the eventual Best Picture nominees and I had I'm Still Here on that list as I suspected it would be a potential candidate for the foreign film that makes the list which has happened pretty much every year since Roma in 2019. If you are curious, I got two films missing from that list: A Complete Unknown and Wicked. This was right before Wicked came out and I still hadn't bought into the idea that it would be an awards player. So I suppose good on me for attempting to call I'm Still Here that early even though I dropped it!
I would argue that the film's with the best chance to take this prize are currently Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez. I would've included Conclave, but the fact that it didn't get the Directing nomination and hasn't had much of a surge in winning anything beyond its Screenplay gives me pause. If it wins PGA or SAG Ensemble in an upset, I will reconsider.
I have also heard people make the case for Wicked, which could win PGA in an upset and is very likely to win SAG Ensemble...but I just don't see it happening. The fact it couldn't get Director or Screenplay nominations makes me think it is out of the running entirely. Even if it had snuck into Screenplay, I just feel like it would be such a crazy stat-breaking victory.
I do think Coda's very loony victory proved that crazy things could happen considering that film managed to win with just 3 nominations/3 wins...but 2 of those wins were Screenplay and Supporting Actor. I just don't see Wicked pulling it off otherwise, especially since it isn't even guaranteed to win an acting award. In the last 30 years, only two films won Best Picture without winning either Director or Screenplay: Gladiator and Chicago...but those films still got nominations in both categories.
I had a dream the other night that The Substance pulled off a Driving Miss Daisy: Best Picture, Actress, Screenplay, and Makeup...and no, I truly don't see this happening. The true win is that a film like this even got nominated here, and it does show that there are tides still shifting within the Academy.
My dream scenario is that Anora manages to win PGA, and that Mikey Madison can at least win at SAG or BAFTA and that the film can leave the Oscar ceremony with wins in Picture, Actress, and Screenplay...but I truly worry about Emilia Perez. While the industry is clearly embracing it, audiences are not...and usually that can be enough to affect a film's chances. Even something like The Power of the Dog did so well with critics and precursors but had such low audience scores and such little passion that it allowed a film like Coda to sneak in. And yet...I feel more nervous that Emilia Perez could still do it.
The audience score that the film has on Rotten Tomatoes is THIRTY-FOUR PERCENT!!!!! To put that into perspective using two of the least popular Best Picture winners of the last 20 years, Crash has an 88; Green Book has 91!
I feel like The Brutalist could fall into the Power of the Dog type slot this year, but I also get the sense that more people do have a passion for it...however, it still has its detractors. Even though I would argue I am a detractor, I still found the film highly watchable and entertaining for its entire 3.5 hour length...even if I did question the script choices in that final hour.
Anora falls prey to being an early frontrunner that faced some scrutiny from those who may have found it to be overpraised...and that is highly unfortunate. However, I do suspect this to be a year where we could possibly be in suspense until the night itself. I even wonder if the race will be divided to a point where it resembles the 2015/2016 year when Spotlight managed to win Best Picture with just a Screenplay win while The Revenant wins Director, Actor, and Cinematography...3 awards that The Brutalist seems highly likely to win.
I have to admit that I do love the uncertainty here, but I do loathe that a film like Emilia Perez is part of this conversation in a truly prominent way.
I will return with final Oscar predictions once we get near the end of February, and hopefully I will be back sooner with film reviews for the ones I haven't seen yet!
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