BEST PICTURE:
The Father
Judas & The Black Messiah
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Potential Spoilers: Another Round, The Mauritanian, News of the World, and The White Tiger
ANALYSIS: I have ten films listed for my predictions and while the Academy will be requiring 10 films to be slotted again starting next year, we are still on the sliding scale system where the number of films nominated could range from as little as 5 to as many as 10. Most years have yielded 8-9 nominees so it's possible that one (or two) of these films may get snubbed. The sad truth is that I feel like Sound of Metal could be the most vulnerable which is a shame because it is easily one of my top 3 favorite movies I have seen so far this year. I also think Judas could still miss which is another one of my absolute favorites but I do suspect it is on the rise while other films seem to be losing a little steam like The Father, Ma Rainey, and One Night in Miami.
It still saddens me that Mank is probably going to make it in. Early on, I dropped it from my predictions hoping that the lack of passion for it might leave it off the list but it is seemingly apparent that it has enough to squeak by.
While Nomadland is currently the frontrunner, I still have this bad feeling about Trial of the Chicago 7 possibly benefitting from being more of a traditional choice and also getting a boost from the preferential ballot. Nomadland has proven to be popular in that it could even win the Audience Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival but having said that, it is still a very slow moving film that you could argue is "plot-less". I could see some voters scoffing at that and intentionally voting it lower to spite it.
As of now though, Nomadland is easily out front and unless something else takes PGA, I think it'll be basically a lock.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Shaka King, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
David Fincher, MANK
Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
Chloe Zhao, NOMADLAND
Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Potential Spoilers: Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Florian Zeller, The Father
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
ANALYSIS: No Director has ever swept the critics awards quite like Chloe Zhao...and then to top it off, she won the Golden Globe. The Globe win wasn't a surprise but many suspected that if she were to lose somewhere, it would be there. At this point, I think anyone else winning would be truly shocking.
So, I am predicting Shaka King to get nominated for Director despite the fact he hasn't gotten in anywhere. I have seen others follow suit and I am not going to lie that I know its a long shot. I just feel like the buzz for Judas is building immensely and that it could be one of those passion picks sort of like when Lenny Abrahamson snuck in for directing Room.
However, I can't ignore Aaron Sorkin. He has gotten in everywhere, including DGA, but it kind of surprises me because most of the press I kept hearing in addition to the swarms of film fanatics online was that he still hasn't truly mastered the art of directing. I would agree with this.
The film is only competently directed at best and I am praying that he gets snubbed in a similar vein that Martin McDonagh did for THREE BILLBOARDS. The Directing branch has been known to show reservations and throwing curveballs to first-timers or writers turned directors like McDonagh. I am going to will into the world a Sorkin snub but frankly, it could still end up with him being in there.
I think Lee Isaac Chung and Emerald Fennell are safe but I still worry. Fincher's coldest and perhaps most glossy work will probably still slip in here too even though I think he should be left off.
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BEST ACTOR:
Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Tahir Rahim, THE MAURITANIAN
Steven Yeun, MINARI
Potential Spoilers: Gary Oldman, MANK
Mads Mikkelsen, ANOTHER ROUND
Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS
Lakeith Stanfield, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
Adarsh Gourav, THE WHITE TIGER
ANALYSIS: Chadwick Boseman is winning this. Even if he somehow loses the BAFTA (because I think he is still a shoo-in for the SAG), I suspect they will crown him accordingly and thus we will have only the third performer to win a posthumous acting Oscar.
I still haven't seen THE FATHER or THE MAURITANIAN due to their late release dates and lack of availability in terms of screeners so I am basing my predictions strictly off of buzz/stats.
I would say Ahmed (who is my favorite), Boseman, and Hopkins are definite locks but Rahim and Steven Yeun are wildcards.
I am hoping that the lack of passion for MANK (which has seemingly hurt Seyfried in Supporting) will translate into a snub for Oldman but I won't be surprised if we hear his name this Monday.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Viola Davis, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Potential Spoilers: Rosamund Pike, I CARE A LOT
Bukky Bakray, ROCKS
Radha Blank, THE 40 YEAR OLD VERSION
Amy Adams, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Julia Garner, THE ASSISSTANT
Nicole Beharie, MISS JUNETEENTH
Han Ye-ri, MINARI
ANALYSIS: This race just became a hot mess after being a roller coaster prior to the hot mess. Going into the Golden Globe nominations, many debated who the frontrunner would be among Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan. Once they came out, I feel like the general consensus was that Mulligan would win after the surprise Director/Picture combo for her film occurred.
No one really paid attention to Andra Day as, despite her great reviews, her film was poorly received (DESERVEDLY SO!) and the buzz wasn't really going her way. On top of that, Day wasn't nominated for any other precursor aside from the CC. So once Day won the Globe, that sent everything into a tailspin until Mulligan beat her at the CC this past Sunday.
With that momentum, many felt Mulligan could very well take SAG and very handily take BAFTA being on her home turf.
Well.....
Mulligan (along with Davis) got SNUBBED at BAFTA....a truly horrific snub.
So frankly, I can't even call anyone a frontrunner here. Mulligan could take SAG and still be very viable for the Oscars but if she loses SAG, I feel like she may very well be done for.
This is going to be an interesting race to follow in the coming weeks and I am sure I will discuss it more once I post my winner predictions in April.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
Alan Kim, MINARI
Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
Potential Spoilers: Chadwick Boseman, DA 5 BLOODS
Jared Leto, THE LITTLE THINGS
Bill Murray, ON THE ROCKS
David Strathairn, NOMADLAND
Glynn Turman, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
ANALYSIS: I do feel, much like Lead Actor, that we have three expected contenders (SBC, Kaluuya, Odom Jr) and then the last two slots are up in the air.
8 year old Alan Kim of MINARI, who is truly the lead of the film, has gained a lot of buzz as the film continues to surge. He also got a lot of press for adorably crying when he won the Young Actor Award at CC which was quickly followed by a BAFTA nomination for Supporting Actor. I am sort of predicting that MINARI could become a bigger contender and with these slots being fairly opened to contenders from lesser competing films, why not go for him?
Paul Raci will be turning 73 next month and he just got nominated by BAFTA for his stoic and warm work in Sound of Metal. His narrative is truly inspiring as he has been working as an actor in small roles in TV/Film/Theatre for 40 years primarily in Chicago and LA...and now he is this close to receiving an Oscar nom. Some have complained that he does nothing but I feel his work is a prime example of how wondrous subtlety can be.
In the end though, Daniel Kaluuya is going to sweep this season and win the Oscar. It will be richly deserving so I can't complain.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
Dominique Fishback, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
Jodie Foster, THE MAURITANIAN
Youn Yuh-jung, MINARI
Potential Spoilers: Amanda Seyfried, MANK
Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Helena Zengel, NEWS OF THE WORLD
ANALYSIS: This could very well be the most frustrating and crazy category of them all...even if Lead Actress is closing in fast on that claim!
Early on, there seemed to be two general themes: honoring the overdue Glenn Close and the star turn by Amanda Seyfried. For a while, the buzz seemed to zero in on Seyfried when Close's film began getting trashed by critics.
There were those people who still held out hope that Close would overcome this...but I was one of those who felt like she wouldn't do it.
Then, Close got in at GG/SAG/CC and suddenly people were saying that she was finally on the path to win that Oscar while some bemoaned that she deserved to win for something more than an overwrought performance in a film that has a Rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes.
So where are we now? You see no Close or Seyfried in my final predictions.
Close lost GG/CC as did Seyfried but one major omission that got dealt to Seyfried was a snub by SAG. Once that happened, it showed that she was nowhere near as invincible as many suspected.
They both lost the Globe to Jodie Foster who received no nominations from CC/SAG/BAFTA...only to further complicate the race.
Then you have Olivia Colman who certainly seemed plausible at the Globes and CC...but her main play was at BAFTA....until she just got snubbed today as of this writing.....
So that leaves us with the two most fascinating candidates: Maria Bakalova & Youn Yuh-jung.
The former is an unknown Bulgarian actress who has defied all the odds to gain traction for a truly unique and bold comedic performance in a sequel.
The latter is a legend in her native South Korea playing a foul-mouthed grandma and giving the performance in her native tongue.
Foreign language performances have won before....but it isn't overly common. It also must be said that no performance given in an Asian language has ever been nominated for an Oscar. To further push this embarrassing stat, only 3 Asian actors have ever been nominated for an Oscar with just two of them winning: Miyoshi Umeki and Haing S. Ngor.
Even last year when a movie like PARASITE generated so much passion and ended up making history with its Best Picture win, it couldn't gain any traction for its stellar ensemble for individual nominations. That was truly shameful, especially considering the film's 4 main female cast members were far better than any of the nominees in the Supporting Actress category and, frankly, the leading category too.
So what could happen here? I feel like if Bakalova pulls off the win at SAG that we really cannot discount her...but her film is obviously not in the same level of pedigree/praise as MINARI. The SAGs are notorious for not honoring/nominating foreign language performances (even less so than the Oscars) so their push for MINARI is impressive.
Maybe I am a little biased in my thinking but I think Youn will take the SAG and perhaps the BAFTA and that will solidify her Oscar chances...but if they split the awards, all bets are off.
I also don't want to rule out the possibility of a Glenn Close upset at SAG (though this may be a moot point if she ends up getting snubbed for the Oscar but tell that to Emily Blunt and Idris Elba, who both won Supporting SAG Awards after getting snubbed for an Oscar).
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Judas & The Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Potential Spoilers: Mank
Another Round
Palm Springs
Rocks
Soul
First Cow
ANALYSIS: My bias against Mank could very well do me in here but I am just hoping that these voters keep pushing the passion vote for Judas and Sound of Metal which seem to be the most vulnerable here. Minari isn't exactly a lock but I would be more surprised if it misses...especially since I think it is the #3 contender for Picture behind Nomadland and Trial.
Speaking of Trial, I would say that it is the frontrunner, or at the very least, co-frontrunner. I do feel that Emerald Fennell could pose a challenge to Sorkin (she should honestly probably win...especially when compared to Sorkin's script which starts off strong and quippy but ends up descending into neo-liberal mawkish fantasy with an ending that is so run-of-the-mill for Hollywood that I sat there rolling my eyes...but this is also a voting body that voted for Green Book so god help us all).
While I am not fully expecting it, I do see Minari as a dark horse here so let's see how that progresses.
One quick side-note: I haven't heard much else about it and I am not sure if it will happen or if it is too late but there has been some rumblings about them possibly pushing Sound of Metal to the Adapted category because it is actually based on the script of another film that never got made. Frankly, it might have an easier time slipping into Adapted so either way, I would be thrilled.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Potential Spoilers: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
News of the World
Sound of Metal* (see above in Original)
ANALYSIS: Much like last year, I feel like this category is surprisingly sparse. By the time the Oscars rolled around last year, I feel like the top 5 was pretty firmly locked with only one other movie (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) seeming like a distant possibility. Aside from these five films plus the two other contenders (and Sound of Metal if it switches), I would be surprised if any other film makes it into this race.
I think the big question here is whether voters will want to go gaga over Nomadland by handing Chloe Zhao the win here or if they will rally behind one of the films that has a wordier script or more dazzling concept. At this exact moment, I feel like that logic would go more towards The Father or One Night in Miami...but I also feel like the passion for those films are still fairly weakened.
The White Tiger has done well so far in terms of getting WGA and BAFTA nominations. It seems like it could be the critical favorite but non-BP nominated film to slip in here like The Lobster or First Reformed did in Original Screenplay in recent years.
Despite the fact that the original Borat film got a nod for its screenplay, I am still unsure if the sequel can do the same. It got a lot of buzz thanks primarily to the infamous Rudy Guiliani scene (which is also greatly helping Bakalova's buzz) but I do find the film enjoyable and I do greatly appreciate Sacha Baron Cohen's brazen and bold comedy approach.
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FINAL THOUGHTS:
Monday the 15th will be the big day for the nominations...and it'll be a crazy morning for me. As the nominations will be coming out, I will be on a work ZOOM call (that I will not be paying attention to since I am only on there for the sake of keeping up appearances) and then immediately following that, I have to walk my dog a mile to the vet....but I am just very curious to see what some of the big snubs might be!
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