First off...I do have to wonder if we are going to get a lot of negative press for the Oscars this year. I will say that the number of POC actors nominated is very strong and is certainly a wonderful thing but in the end, two films with predominantly African-American casts got snubbed for Best Picture.
In terms of the acting categories, you could say there was a lot of uncertainty about who might slip in (particularly Supporting Actress) but over all of the races, there was only one truly shocking inclusion that I felt no one really discussed...especially since he showed up in a different category!
Let's go down the line starting with Best Picture.
BEST PICTURE:
The Father
Judas & The Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
SNUBS: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami
-As I stated in my predictions post, the list of nominees could've ranged from as little as 5 to as many as 10. Most years have yielded 8-9 nominations so many predicted that the snub would probably come from either Judas, Sound of Metal, The Father, One Night in Miami, or Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
I listed all 10 of these films but I was sort of leaning towards The Father to miss hoping that the growing passion for Judas and Sound of Metal would pull them through...which is what happened. The unfortunate news for Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami is that both of them got axed. I think it isn't a good look for the Academy that they looked them over.
However, they DID opt to nominate Judas which overperformed and I do feel that it is a far better film than both Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami so I am thrilled with that nomination.
Sound of Metal making it in is truly fantastic and I couldn't be more thrilled. Promising Young Woman is also one I am thrilled to see be here but it was more of a shoo-in for the nom.
I do feel that Nomadland is the easy frontrunner right now and that it should maintain that status if it wins the PGA along with its inevitable DGA win for Chloe Zhao.
I am still nervous about Trial of the Chicago 7. It seems like the prime film to benefit from the preferential ballot and it has a very strong chance to win Screenplay and Editing at this point which makes me think it could sneak in if enough voters think Nomadland is too slow and meandering.
Mank led the nominations with 10. I am not surprised but I am still disappointed that this rather lifeless film was able to still maintain enough support to slip into this race.
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Thomas Vinterberg, ANOTHER ROUND
David Fincher, MANK
Lee Isaac Chung, MINARI
Chloe Zhao, NOMADLAND
Emerald Fennell, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Snubs: Aaron Sorkin, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7; Florian Zeller, THE FATHER; Shaka King, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH; Darius Marder, SOUND OF METAL; Regina King, ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
-In the end, Chloe Zhao is going to win this and she deserves it (even though Nomadland isn't actually my among my top 3-4 favorite films of the year). If she were to somehow lose, I think it would cause one of the worst uproars in recent memory.
One thing I am overjoyed about? The snub of Aaron Sorkin!! I predicted the snub because I had a feeling it could very well happen but I can't deny that there was a negative bias there. Trial isn't necessarily a "bad" movie but the direction was nothing special (plus that ending scene was cringeworthy as hell).
I can also understand why Fincher made it in as he went for pure style and flash...but the results were still emotionally hollow and I wish that he had missed this list.
Thrilled with the nominations for Chung and Fennell! Both are richly deserved!
I also want to note that this is the first year that we have two women nominated in Director, which is a huge deal considering they are still only the 6th and 7th women to get a nomination....and Zhao's pretty much inevitable win will only be the 2nd time a woman has won the award.
One last thing: Vinterberg.
While this is something of a "surprise", it also isn't at the same time. I almost predicted him because he seemed like a prime candidate for a wildcard Director slot and his BAFTA nomination showed he had prime support from the British/European voter bloc. I decided to go more for the NGNG Shaka King pic which even I sort of doubted.
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BEST ACTOR:
Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Gary Oldman, MANK
Steven Yeun, MINARI
Snubs: Tahir Rahim, THE MAURITANIAN; Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS; Mads Mikkelsen, ANOTHER ROUND
-I say this as someone who adores Gary Oldman and feel he should've had two Oscars on his mantle before he even won his overdue (and not overly deserved) first Oscar for Darkest Hour...but I really wanted him to miss here. He wasn't bad in Mank but it just wasn't a performance that seemed to be anything special or surprising from him...and considering someone like Delroy Lindo couldn't gain traction for his powerful performance all season is a crime.
In the end though, I think Chadwick Boseman will still take this easily even if he were to lose the BAFTA and despite of the film's snub in Best Picture. The goodwill towards him and his performance seems too strong to ignore despite the praise that has been lavished on Anthony Hopkins (whom I haven't seen yet) and Riz Ahmed (my favorite in the category thus far).
I do love that Steven Yeun slipped in because he gave such a beautiful performance and it is nice to see him finally getting recognition such as this.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Viola Davis, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES vs. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Snubs: Rosamund Pike, I CARE A LOT; Sophia Loren, THE LIFE AHEAD; Sidney Flanigan, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
-These five nominees seemed pretty solidified once Day won her rather surprising Golden Globe after many wrote her off. I would also say that the eventual winner here, as of this moment, is not entirely clear.
SAG will be very telling and the race is especially interesting considering Day is not nominated at the SAGs or the BAFTAs. Since the invention of the SAG Awards in 1994, no Lead Actress winner has won the the Oscar without SAG and/or BAFTA nominations but could Day pull it off? Even though her film has been (deservedly) panned, she is still quite good in the film considering its her debut performance and her narrative could be strong should they want to honor only the SECOND African-American actress for this award.
I feel like Davis could still win at SAG and I suppose we can't rule her out either. I just don't see her gaining traction, especially considering the odds of both her AND Boseman winning seemed somewhat unlikely before...and now with the film being snubbed in Best Picture, it seems less likely.
Much like Day's film, Pieces of a Woman got rather mixed reviews but most people agree that Vanessa Kirby's performance was fantastic. She (and McDormand) were the only two Actress contenders to get into BAFTA (though that is a little tricky considering their jury system) but it does seem as she is gaining more buzz in terms of actor support and then she has a home court advantage at BAFTA. At this point, I don't know if we can rule her out completely either.
McDormand is in an interesting position. Could Nomadland and its frontrunner status propel her to a win here? What really hurts her is the fact she just won her second Oscar 3 years ago for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and also that her performance is quite subtle...which isn't normally what Oscar voters go for. However, had she lost for Three Billboards, I almost think that she would've been able to pull it off here. It can be hard for an actor to even win a second Oscar let alone a third...and she is also a producer on Nomadland so as of now, she seems poised to win an Oscar that way. I won't rule her out but it all depends on how much they love her and the film. If she somehow wins SAG, I think the race may be over.
Perhaps my own bias may be a play here but I do think Mulligan still has a strong chance to win here. She could take SAG which would indicate strong actors support but when the BAFTA jury snubbed her (she would've been nominated had it been the normal voting system), it hurt some of her momentum. What still helps her is that she is in a film with pretty solid support so I still think of her as the tenetive frontrunner. If she loses SAG though, I feel like her chances are close to nothing.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
Leslie Odom Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
Lakeith Stanfield, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH
Snubs: Chadwick Boseman, DA 5 BLOODS; Alan Kim, MINARI; Jared Leto, THE LITTLE THINGS; Bill Murray, ON THE ROCKS; David Strathairn, NOMADLAND
-Out of all of the potential shockers that many speculated, we only got one single nomination out of all of the acting races this year...and it was one that no one forecasted. Lakeith Stanfield was such a shocking nomination that even the awards forecasting website GoldDerby didn't even have him in the longlist for potential nominees. The main reason for this was it seemed as if Stanfield was being pushed for Lead while Kaluuya would be placed in Supporting. I do think its kind of strange though because I would argue that both of them would honestly belong in Lead rather than Supporting.
In the end, Kaluuya should have this Oscar in the bag and he certainly has the best performance in the category.
I do have to add that I am beyond thrilled about the nomination for Paul Raci. This man is having his big breakthrough just as he is about to turn the age of 73 and I feel that his performance is a prime example of how subtle acting can be just as powerful as those that might be filled with nothing but bravado.
I do still think its a shame that if someone from Trial had to be singled out that it was Sacha Baron Cohen but it was obvious the tides were turning his way early on. Plus, he has been campaigning like hell and has the extra exposure for Borat to help him.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
Amanda Seyfried, MANK
Youn Yuh-jung, MINARI
Snubs: Ellen Burstyn, PIECES OF A WOMAN; Dominique Fishback, JUDAS & THE BLACK MESSIAH; Jodie Foster, THE MAURITANIAN; Helena Zengel, NEWS OF THE WORLD
-James Coco in Only When I Laugh and Amy Irving in Yentl...two performances that have the rather hilarious distinction of being nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie. Both of those happened in the early 80s. Nearly 40 years later, Glenn Close joins their company with her work in Hillbilly Elegy. As overwrought as that film was, I don't think Close was worthy of a Razzie nomination but I do feel that an Oscar nomination for this performance might be a bit much. I could see a path where Close takes the SAG and becomes a viable contender but I also think Bakalova, Colman, and Youn could easily take SAG as well (only Bakalova and Youn are nominated at BAFTA).
This is easily the most baffling acting category of the night as of yet because I could see a path for any of these except for Seyfried...which is crazy considering she was once dubbed "the frontrunner" early on and now she is essentially the filler of this race.
Globe winner Jodie Foster was snubbed but it was apparent that Oscar voters didn't take to her film and despite her film's big surge, we sadly didn't get a surprise nom for Fishback.
I am going to consider Youn the slight frontrunner which is huge considering how rare it is for the Oscars to nominate Asian performers...and considering her performance is primarily in Korean, that is a major plus. I think the fact that she is in a major Picture player can help too as it will be an easy way to reward Minari. It is just a shame that none of the actors from Parasite could gain traction last year even though they far exceeded the people who got nominated over them.
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Judas & The Black Messiah - by Will Berson and Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas and Kenny Lucas
Minari - by Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman - by Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal - by Darius Marder and Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder and Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7- by Aaron Sorkin
Snubs: Mank; Palm Springs, Soul
-I cannot tell you how thrilled I am that Mank got snubbed here and that both Sound of Metal and Judas got in!
This is a fantastic lineup! Even though I find Trial to essentially be a neo-liberal fantasy that only Sorkin can provide, I can at least attest that it had good dialogue...especially in the first third of the film. The sad news is that he still could very well win this award even though I think he is easily the worst one here. However, the person that is his biggest competition now is Emerald Fennell but I don't think we can truly call this race until WGA and BAFTA happens. There is a chance that Minari could pick up steam but at this point I think it is firmly a Sorkin/Fennell race.
Once again though...Sound of Metal and Judas getting in here thrills me to no end!!
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - by Sacha Baron Cohen and others
The Father - by Florian Zeller & Christopher Hampton (Based on the play by Zeller)
Nomandland - by Chloe Zhao (Based on the book by Jessica Bruder)
One Night in Miami - by Kemp Powers (based on his play)
The White Tiger - by Ramin Bahrani (based on the novel by Arvind Adiga)
Snubs: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, News of the World
-I have to say right off the bat that it isn't exactly shocking that Borat is here considering that the first one managed a nomination as well...and I have to say that I did enjoy a lot of the plotting that this one had considering the first one felt more like a free-for-all in terms of its progression.
However, I am certainly surprised that Ma Rainey was snubbed here. Perhaps the truncated text and lack of passion for the film hurt it whereas my semi-gutsy prediction for The White Tiger paid off even though it did have WGA/BAFTA noms to back it up.
I think this will be an interesting race. Zhao is actually not eligible at WGA so someone else could feasibly win there and pick up momentum or they may just go all out on Nomadland/Zhao at the Oscars just like they did for Parasite and Birdman in their respective years recently.
I feel like Zhao may end up taking this by default due to the fact that films nominated for Best Picture (and it is very likely going to win) are what end up winning Screenplay. I will go into that further once I do my final winner predictions post which will be about a month from today.
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CONCLUSION:
I don't really have anything else to add. I feel like I am thrilled by a lot of the inclusions (and a couple of the snubs) but I still sort of hoped for some bigger surprises in the acting races.
I know some people are worried about vote splitting happening in Supporting Actor thanks to the rather shocking nomination for Stanfield...but I think Kaluuya has already built up too strong a narrative and it isn't like vote splitting happens too often. Just recently, Sam Rockwell won Supporting Actor for Three Billboards despite his co-star Woody Harrelson being in the category. I do think it is category fraud for Stanfield and, arguably, for Kaluuya as well but I won't fight it too much. I frankly prefer both of them to pretty much all of the contenders that got snubbed.
And that's that! Look out for a post about Oscar campaigning history soon along with a few other random tidbits unrelated to film (various essays on classic SIMPSONS and SNL in particular).
Farewell!
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