It Should Never Be Longer Than THE BRUTALIST! - My Thoughts on the 97th Academy Awards

 This was a very bizarre ceremony.

The host, Conan O'Brien, made a point near the end of his opening monologue that he wanted to run a tight ship...and while we can't necessarily blame him for segments such as the one devoted to the James Bond series, it is clear that the producing team of the ceremony combined with overlong acceptance speeches (I am looking at you, Adrien Brody...) and the apparently "necessary" evil of seemingly constant commercial breaks, led to this nearly 4 hour ceremony. I feel like the Oscars haven't lasted this long in over 20 years. 

I can remember as a kid/teenager when the Oscars would start at 8:30 and then last until nearly 1 A.M. and while I do love the early 7pm start time, I don't like that it still lumbered along. That is also with them getting rid of the Best Song performances, which this year was welcomed as that had to be one of the worst lineups the category has ever seen. If there was ever a time to toss Diane Warren a bone, this was it. 

The first half hour was wonderful, even if by the half hour point I was like "Oh hell, they still haven't presented anything". The opening number with Ariana Grande singing "Over the Rainbow", Cynthia Erivo belting out "Home" from The Wiz, and then the two of the joining forces for "Defying Gravity" was a strong way to open the show and the two of them did an absolutely lovely job. 

I haven't looked at a lot of the online commentary about O'Brien directly, but I frankly enjoyed him as host. His snarky and irreverent nature felt refreshing for the ceremony, plus I do love the jab he took at Karla Sofia Gascon. I also very much loved his self-deprecating humor as the show slowly chugged along where he referred to any viewers remaining as having Stockholm Syndrome. I am a pretty die hard Conan O'Brien fan and I would very much like to see him try this gig again. I did appreciate him a bit more than Jimmy Kimmel and he was certainly far more successful in the role compared to people like Neil Patrick Harris or Seth MacFarlane. 

I feel like last year's ceremony, with Oppenheimer winning, was such a swiftly moving ceremony in comparison. The Academy has had a longstanding contract with ABC to air the ceremony which is scheduled to last until 2028. This year was the first time the ceremony has been simulcast on Hulu, which was how I viewed the ceremony...and how many people ended up pissed off (more on that in a moment). 

Part of me does like the idea of the Oscars moving strictly to streaming a la the SAG Awards which had left the TBS/TNT deal for a streaming contract on Netflix with limited ad breaks. I would like to think something such as this could help keep the time down...but if that were the case, I hope that Hulu or whichever service would take it actually allows the livestream to keep going and not cut it off right before a category that had some legitimate suspense. Considering it was a moment many people following it were building to, including me, it was a bit of a bummer to switch on YouTube TV and see Mikey Madison mid-speech and find out that way.

Let's talk about the winners, as I do have some thoughts in every direction.

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THE CRAFTS:

The majority of these prizes went in the way that I expected.

Dune Part Two winning for Sound and Visual Effects seemed like a given just as much as The Substance taking Makeup/Hairstyling. 

The Brutalist rather handily won Cinematography, and I would argue Score was an easy win as well considering the most acclaimed Score of the year, arguably Challengers, was not even nominated. 

Best Song ended up going to "El Mal" from Emilia Perez, which was yet another expected winner though one I desperately hoped would somehow lose...even if it was arguably the only semi-decent song in that trainwreck. As to be expected, the songwriters who won turned out to be absolutely obnoxious onstage seemingly wanting to sing the "Emilia" motif from the film...and also just felt like salt to the wound of seeing this dumpster fire taking awards.

Wicked made history as Paul Tazewell became the first black man to win the Costuming prize, while it also won a well deserved victory for its Production Design. Every set from the Wizard's quarters to the rotating library were an absolute marvel!

However, the one crafts prize that I want to talk about is that of Sean Baker winning for Anora. 

The Editing prize was considered to be a bit all over the place as a lot of the editing awards prior had given their trophies to Challengers...but in the last couple of weeks, the consensus from most seemed to think that BAFTA winner Conclave could pull it off and that it could signal another factor towards a last minute Best Picture surge.

Some did wonder if Anora could pull it off, but I have to that based what is onscreen, it isn't a film that seems to be screaming for an Editing win. One saying that is often said amongst awards prognosticators is that the Best Editing winner is usually "Most Editing". If you were to go based off that logic, Emilia Perez would've won this but as you can probably guess, that would never happen in my book. 

I think they could've just tossed this win to Wicked and called it a day, but I will say that despite my admiration for Anora, I do feel like its win here probably could've been spared. I did really love Sean Baker saying "I saved this film in the edit!" and proclaimed that the director (himself) should never work again. Truthfully though, Anora is a film that could've been about 15-20 minutes shorter. When I first saw the film way back in October, I felt it then and on a rewatch just two weeks ago, I still felt it. I don't think it is enough to be a true detriment to the film, but this was the win where it was clear that these voters more or less embraced Anora with a lot of passion.

I do want to express my absolute joy at seeing I'm Still Here overtake Emilia Perez in Best International Feature, which was very well deserved and it felt good to see that film barely get any wins last night...although it was still two too many.

And also - No Other Land defying against the odds of not getting any distribution and netting this win based on independent distribution. Considering its pro-Palestine subject matter, I am impressed enough Academy members embraced it considering a lot of Hollywood and the industry are rather Zionist leaning in their beliefs.

Now let's move to the Big 8 categories:

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY went to Anora as was expected, but I want to save more of my Anora discussion for other categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY went to Conclave which was one of the biggest locks of the night. A solid win, even if I would've personally wanted Sing Sing.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

A foregone conclusion. I don't hate this win, but I still think the steamrolling surge through the entire award season was a bit much. It is even more crazy when you take into account that it is a category fraud lead performance and that is Succession co-star Jeremy Strong was right there in a magnificent supporting turn as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice.

But it is hard not to be happy for Culkin and we have certainly seen far worse winners in this category over the years. 

His speeches, particularly this one where he called back his desire for more children based on a comment made by his wife Jazz, are always just so off-the-wall eccentric and I do think in this case it was the right mix of that quality while also having a bit more structure.

I do love that he did call out Jeremy Strong from the stage, especially considering how Strong and his Succession co-stars do have a bit of a strained history due to Strong's serious and more method approach to his acting.

Just to reiterate, this performance winning in Supporting is truly insane. 

He is in more than 60% of the 90 minute film. This is a record for a Supporting performance...and not one I think should be celebrated. Even compared to the Supporting Actress winner I will be discussing next, Culkin feels even more like a lead in that a lot of the film's tension and catalyst pushes come from his character...even if Jesse Eisenberg does have a tad more screentime. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I am not going to spend a lot of time on this one for obvious reasons, not just because of my hatred for the film, but because she too was another locked victor. 

I will reiterate that Saldana was far and way the best thing about that film, and despite the being handed truly abysmal material, she came out of it unscathed.

However, much like Culkin, she is a lead...and perhaps the true lead of the film even over Gascon.

In what world should Saldana and Grande, who are leading characters, be competing with Isabella Rossellini who is only in 7 minutes of Conclave; Felicity Jones, who only comes to prominence in the final hour or so of The Brutalist for roughly 40 minutes of screentime; and Monica Barbaro, who flits in and out of A Complete Unknown to a total of roughly 33 minutes.

Saldana had close to an hour; Grande had around 1 hour and 10 minutes!

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BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Despite some predicting Chalamet could take it in a last minute surge, I still felt that this was Brody's to lose. It also seemed like he had a lot of fans calling his work "the performance of the year", at least amongst the male performances.

I think Brody suffered, at least in my opinion, upon seeing the film as I didn't feel like it was as rapturous a portrayal as some made it out to be. He had some wonderful moments, particularly his crying scene near the beginning of the film when he learns that (spoiler alert of sorts) his wife survived the camps. 

I would still likely rank him 3rd in the category with the sterling work of Ralph Fiennes in 4th, and even if I would rank Chalamet in 5th, he did give a very good performance as Bob Dylan and was clearly committed to doing good work. It was certainly better musical biopic portrayal than, say, Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. 

For me, this category was about the two candidates who arguably had the least chance to win: Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan.

Stan's work as Trump was a bit of a masterclass in how to take in the essence of a real life person but not try to make it a caricature. As the film progresses, we watch him become more and more like the Trump we see today but it is a performance based around nailing the mannerisms and the tics along with, as I said, the essence. He also made Trump feel far more human than he ever actually deserves, but it was what the film needed.

 Domingo would've gotten my personal vote. What a truly vibrant and heartbreaking performance and one that I found showcased what a truly wonderful actor that he is and one that I have loved since I saw him in the fantastic Kander/Ebb musical The Scottsboro Boys. 

As for Brody, he's been here before. He pointed that out himself when he chose to demand them to cutoff the playoff music...something he also did when he surprisingly won this same award 22 years ago for The Pianist.

Nikki Glazer: "Oh look, it's two-time Holocaust survivor Adrien Brody!!"

Brody's speech certainly flirted with extreme pretentiousness, and it just felt unfair to a lot of other winners who may have gotten cut off throughout the night...something I wish had happened to the Emilia Perez songwriters.

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BEST ACTRESS

Mikey Madison, Anora

Words cannot express how much I love this selection.

Considering the fact they snubbed Marianne Jean-Baptiste from Hard Truths, my personal pick in this category was Mikey Madison.

This isn't to say I would've been unhappy with Fernanda Torres or Demi Moore or Cynthia Erivo winning. In fact, that quartet of women make for one of the strongest lineups I have seen in this category. Had they swapped out Gascon for MJB, it would've been an all-timer.

Demi Moore had the narrative plus the haul of the largest amount of televised precursor prizes. When she beat Madison at the Globes and then at CC, it seemed as though the buzz was shifting in her direction. 

Things took a shift when Anora began to dominate (more on that when discussing Best Picture) and that capped off by Madison winning at BAFTA right before Oscar voting had closed. 

Moore did comeback with SAG, but this was after voting ended with the Oscars. Still though, the passion for Moore was clear and her narrative was strong and her commitment to the role was apparent and thrilling. The question became: will Moore overcome the genre bias and the fact she didn't have an awards overdue narrative to take the prize OR would Madison win because she took a key industry award and was the face of the film deemed the BP frontrunner OR would the passion behind Fernanda Torres cause her to bubble up as more people discovered I'm Still Here.

I predicted Moore, but clearly knew Madison and Torres had a significant shot to take it. It does make sense in hindsight that Madison would benefit from being the face of the BP winner...which helped recent Actress winners like Frances McDormand for Nomadland and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

Madison has received quite a bit of vitriol from online film forums as being too young and green and lacking charisma. On top of that, I keep seeing the phrase: "Any young actress could play that role".

Well...maybe to an extent, that is true. However, I am judging the actress who got the role. Madison's natural demeanor is shy and timid; a girl who grew up in LA and has a very chill and sunny vibe.

The character of Ani (whose official name is Anora) is a Brooklyn born and bred girl on the fringes of poverty who works at a club entertaining male clients...or not to sugarcoat it: a sex worker. She is brash and snarky and full of spunk. She has a lot of street smarts and is tough, but it is very clear that there is a lot she needs to learn about life. I don't really want to say any spoilers for anyone who hasn't seen the film, but for me, the amount of work she put in ranging from perfecting a Brighton Beach accent, learning Russian, learning how to pole dance, meeting with multiple sex workers to discuss their experiences, shows she put in the work and it paid off in spades.

I am curious to see what the trajectory is for Madison after this win. She is about to turn 26 and at such a young age and for a breakout role, this kind of win doesn't happen that often. You'd have to go back to Brie Larson winning for Room for the closest example. I do hope that she doesn't struggle to find work or that many feel she peaked too early, but frankly, I feel like she shows a significant amount of promise.

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BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker, Anora

Going into award season, Sean Baker was talked about a lot more as a Best Director possibility, but it felt like a choice based more around not truly knowing who the alternative was. Once The Brutalist took off, it did seem like Brady Corbet was going to lead the charge even if that film would lose Best Picture.

Things begin to change when Jon M. Chu, very randomly, won Director at CC...an award many felt would go to Corbet.

Then at DGA, some worried that if Corbet didn't win, it could go to Jacques Audiard...especially with the buzz that Emilia Perez was getting fresh off the wins at GG. I was a tad worried as by the time the award was announced, the controversy for the film had already begun, but voting had ended prior to it.

It wasn't Corbet...or Audiard...but Baker. This win at DGA changed everything.

But then, Corbet won the BAFTA which wasn't exactly surprising as they didn't take to Anora as a voting body, even though they were the major boost to Mikey Madison.

Something about Corbet seemed like a more natural fit for the Directing prize, considering what he accomplished on such a small budget while Baker's achievement seemed less grand by comparison. Many still predicted that Corbet would win, and I certainly thought he had a strong chance...but winning the DGA is pretty much strong sign you're also taking the Oscar.

In the last 15 years, only twice did the DGA winner not win at the Oscars. Sam Mendes lost to Bong Joon ho while Ben Affleck famously got snubbed for the Oscars despite winning Best Director everywhere else, which then led to Ang Lee getting his second Oscar.

So, Baker won as I expected and it certainly feels like a refreshing selection.

I do sort of wish Coralie Fargeat had played more of a role in this season with winning.

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BEST PICTURE

ANORA

Even though we've been seeing the Academy embrace films that didn't seem like typical Oscar fare for the last decade with the likes of Moonlight, The Shape of Water, Parasite, and Everything Everywhere All at Once, there still seems to be something very strange about Anora taking the prize.

It's not like it is the first time an indie film has won, but the film just feels so small and intimate. It is also a film that is modern with a female lead and deals with themes of sex work and class and capitalism...while also having a raunchy edge with slapstick comedy to boot. 

For those of us who saw Anora early on, I feel like we did the film something of a disservice by hyping it up so much...particularly when it managed to win the prestigious Palme d'or at the Cannes Film Festival almost a year ago.

When I saw the film in its first week of limited release back in October, it was being deemed as the early frontrunner but it also seemed like it was one of those frontrunners that would likely got unseated by something else. It didn't seem truly invincible like Oppenheimer, and that was very apparent when it got shutout of the Golden Globes.

With most of the award shows getting postponed right after due to the wildfires, the month of January became a month of speculation as to which film was now the frontrunner to win the Oscar...especially with Anora's Globe shutout.

I always suspected it could pull off the win at PGA, but this is where some suspected Conclave or even Wicked could gain the upper hand.

In one fell swoop over that weekend, Anora took Best Picture at CC despite strangely not winning any other award...and then it took PGA and got that surprise DGA win along with its expected WGA victory. Once the film lost at SAG and BAFTA to Conclave, that did open the door to a possible upset. 

While that kind of path to victory has happened with similar trajectories from Spotlight to Moonlight to Parasite...hmmm...maybe the "ight" rhyme is the key there...it still just felt too strange to stray from a film that won PGA/DGA/WGA. The only time a film lost Best Picture after winning that trifecta was Brokeback Mountain.

I think the crazy thing is that Sean Baker managed to sweep to such a degree that he broke a new record last night. With 4 wins, he becomes the first person since Walt Disney to win the most Oscars in one night...but Disney won for different projects. Baker is the first to win them all for one film...and I will admit, such a stat does seem crazy for a film like this. I am still not convinced he should've won for Editing, but regardless, I do love Baker's work and I love how he champions film and his politics within his choice of film content. 

This is the same man who just 10 years ago made Tangerine, a film about two trans sex workers that was shot on two iPhone 5s. I have considered him something of an indie auteur over the last decade and to see his work and a film like this recognized on such a scale makes me very happy. 

Perhaps seeing Anora early on allowed me to not be as affected by the hype in any way, but I did truly appreciate a lot about it and found it to be a very well done effort.

And now...let the 2025/26 award season begin!

LET'S HEAR IT FOR THE SEX WORKER! - My Final Winner Predictions for the 97th Academy Awards

 This has been quite the award season.

If there weren't controversies and smear campaigns galore, it was witnessing the true horror of many neighborhoods in the Los Angeles area getting decimated by wildfires.

January felt like the longest month ever in pretty much every respect. It seems like everyone I know has felt the same thing ranging from the political landscape, the wildfires, and then at the end of the month, Emilia Perez got blasted in the press via the rather heinous Tweets written by the film's titular star Karla Sofia Gascon.

I have thought about writing about that controversy here, but I do get the sense that the well has been drained and I am not sure what else I could contribute to that dialogue. However, I will reiterate that her Tweets and her relatively poor excuses at apologies have not made me the least bit sympathetic to her plight. It's just a shame because this should've been a time to celebrate the first openly trans person to receive an acting Oscar nomination...but it ended up becoming the straw that broke the camel's back considering the vitriol the film has received (and wholeheartedly deserves) was already adding to the discourse. Gascon was good in the film, more so when acting rather than having to sing, but I do feel like I personally wouldn't have nominated her in the end. There were other superior performances that deserved the slot...but I am getting off topic here. 

Unlike last year when it seemed like Oppenheimer was going to steamroll through the season by the time the Golden Globes occurred, we've had a bit of a back and forth in terms of what people thought might win Best Picture. In the last two weeks, Anora took a surge after winning the CC for Best Picture (the only award it won at that ceremony, strangely) and then the PGA for Best Picture, which I thought was a solid possibility. 

The real shocker was when Sean Baker won the DGA for Best Director when many expected that Brady Corbet would likely sweep the season for the rather remarkable directorial achievement he made on The Brutalist...but more to come on that race later.

I feel like we are going into Oscar night with most of the major races locked. I would still argue that even Best Picture seems pretty locked as well despite those who are still trying to downplay the success of Anora. 

We will start off with what seems to be one of the easiest calls of the night.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

#1 - Conclave

#2 - Nickel Boys

#3 - A Complete Unknown

#4 - Sing Sing

#5 - Emilia Perez

I don't see a world where anything else will take this. I understand that Nickel Boys won the WGA but that is also because Conclave was not eligible there. It is also clear that the film does seem to have more widespread support that Nickel Boys which was always on the bubble for slipping into the Best Picture race where I would argue that Conclave is likely the runner up for the prize...some even think it could still manage to come from behind to actually win the top honor.

I didn't review Conclave for my blog, but I did enjoy the film. It was entertaining and well-paced, but it didn't exactly leave me feeling super impressed. If it won in this category, I honestly wouldn't have any complaint about it...but I do feel Sing Sing and Nickel Boys would make far more compelling winners.

A Complete Unknown is basically just a banal musical biopic and doesn't really offer anything of note here, and I don't think it has a shot.

Emilia Perez is trash. Moving on. 

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

#1 - Anora

#2 - The Substance

#3 - A Real Pain

#4 - The Brutalist

#5 - September 5

This race is even more fascinating in that most people suspected this is where Sean Baker would get his due for Anora and I am still predicting that to happen...however, he lost the Golden Globe to Peter Straughn for Conclave (that award show combines the Screenplay categories) and the CC to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance and then the BAFTA to Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain.

Baker DID win the WGA which I would still argue is the most important of the precursors, but I still feel like we could see something crazy here.

Prior to it getting snubbed for Best Picture, I thought A Real Pain posed the biggest threat here because it did have a very concise and witty script with strong dialogue and also had the added benefit of one of its actors sweeping in his category...and yet, despite the snub, Jesse Eisenberg won the BAFTA even with the film not getting any recognition there beyond Kieran Culkin. 

I still don't know if I will predict that to repeat at the Oscars. I am more inclined to think that Fargeat could pull off the upset a la Jordan Peele for Get Out. 

However, as I stated, Baker did win at WGA where he did beat Jesse Eisenberg but Fargeat was also not eligible there. 

I am going to stick with Anora here, and a lot of that is still due to how rare it is for a film to win in Screenplay without a corresponding Best Picture nomination. It used to happen a little more back in the days when there were only 5 Best Picture nominees. The last time it occurred was 20 years ago when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won in Original Screenplay...even if the only Best Picture nominee it was competing against was The Aviator which never even made a big splash in that particular category the whole year. Also - justice for Eternal Sunshine which was easily the best film of 2004!

I just think it'll be crazy to see the prospect of A Real Pain winning Screenplay and Supporting Actor without a Best Picture nomination, but crazy things have happened.

(i.e. the year Coda broke so many stats)

So yes...I am going with Anora but I still feel like The Substance will be brewing close behind.

As for the other two, The Brutalist's script is arguably the worst thing about it...especially when you get to the second half when Corbet and Fastvold are like "Let's just try out everything we want to throw in a movie and that'll make it seem enthralling!". The film never becomes dull, but it becomes frustrating and eventually ends on a whimper.

September 5 has had one of the most bizarre awards journeys in that it had a few very passionate supporters while most of us just wrote it off. It did manage surprise BP nominations at the Globes and at PGA, but it does seem like the one film amongst the major contenders this year that was always just quietly sitting in the background...and full disclosure, I STILL HAVE NOT SEEN IT!

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

#1- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

#2 - Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

#3 - Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

#4 - Yura Borisov, Anora

#5 - Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

As I have already alluded to, Culkin has been stream-rolling this season in a similar vein to Ke Huy Kwan and DaVine Joy Randolph, but I am still a bit surprised by it. I get that he is a good in the role, but it doesn't seem that undeniable nor that much of a stretch than what he did on Succession...but that is the real key here. It is clear that the goodwill from his work on the final season of Succession is majorly factoring into his narrative...on top of the fact that he is a clear lead in his film.

It is Culkin's Succession co-star Jeremy Strong who gives the best performance in this category and would easily get my vote...and yet that is not going to happen.

People have been talking about if one of the other 3 men could've posed an upset at any of the precursors, but I think Pearce likely would've had his best shot at BAFTA...which didn't pan out, and he didn't even get a SAG nom.

Norton had the potential in my eyes to make a SAG upset since he's a veteran actor of great clout who never won a SAG or an Oscar for that matter...and his role of Pete Seeger was something of a departure for him...but not enough to get the traction for a win.

Then you have Yura Borisov, whose subtle work in Anora has managed to get him nominated at every major precursor this season. His quiet Igor does play into that trope of "villain who actually ends up wanting to side with the hero", but his screen presence does prove to be rather compelling. His final scenes help aid to this, especially with how he tends to Madison's titular character. I do know some had rumbled about him getting swept up in an Anora extravaganza, but I never bought into that. I do think the nomination is strictly his reward in the end...especially when he has two other supporting co-stars in his film, Eydelshteyn and Karren Karagulian, who were arguably just as worthy of this nomination...especially the latter. 

So yeah...Culkin won his Emmy and Golden Globes, now he is coming for an Oscar. Following in Jeremy Strong's footsteps as he won a Tony this past year, Culkin is starring in an upcoming Broadway revival of David Mamet's legendary Glengarry Glen Ross and could potentially net that award too. 

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

#1 - Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

#3 - Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

#3 - Ariana Grande, Wicked

#4 - Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

#5 - Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

This category underwhelms me in the sense that Saldana has been sweeping through the season for what is clearly that film's LEAD performance. 

On top of that, her biggest competition has arguably been Ariana Grande who is nearly just as much of a lead as Saldana is in her film.

At the other end of the spectrum you have Rossellini, whose performance is less than 10 minutes of screentime is what this award was built for...and yet, I am still not overly convinced she did do enough to warrant the nod. 

As much as I took issue with the second half of The Brutalist, a lot of what intrigued me most about that section was the introduction of Felicity Jones' Erszebet. I had never really taken much notice to Jones as an actress, but she truly dominates whenever she is onscreen portraying a woman who is clearly smarter than everyone in the room and yet doesn't entirely get credit for it. I would be inclined to wish she would win, but that is definitely not going to happen.

Monica Barbaro definitely snuck into this race after she popped up at SAG, but I do think her nomination shows there is a solid amount of support (likely from the elder sector of the Academy) for A Complete Unknown. 

After a whole season where the narrative seemed to be that Ariana Grande was #2 and could possibly pose a threat by winning at SAG, she never came through. Honestly, it reminds me a lot of last season when Robert Downey Jr kept winning but some were saying that Ryan Gosling's beloved work in Barbie could still potentially win at SAG, but it never came to be. Even on the anonymously released voter ballots that come out every year, usually about a dozen or so, Grande didn't even get a single vote from those. 

Saldana has not been affected by the Emilia Perez controversy, nor that of the ignorant comments made by Jacques Audiard and especially Karla Sofia Gascon...but instead, she will win with extreme category fraud for being the one in her atrocious film who actually truly comes out of the whole thing unscathed. 

I do really like Saldana, and I will gladly own up to really liking her work in the film...but I still just don't feel as thrilled with the win for various reasons.

I wish we could've seen some other contenders make it in here like:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Trine Dryholm, The Girl with the Needle

Carol Kane, Between the Temples

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BEST ACTOR:

#1 - Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

#2 - Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

#3 - Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

#4 - Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

#5 - Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

The path for Adrien Brody seems pretty strong. He won the Globe, the CC, and the BAFTA...but the one hurdle on his docket was SAG. Considering how The Brutalist underperformed there not even getting a nod for Guy Peace or Felicity Jones, it seemed like the opposite overperformance of A Complete Unknown and general overall popularity of Timothee Chalamet would lead to him taking the prize.

...which is exactly what happened.

Some thought Fiennes could upset at BAFTA and that his longtime overdue narrative would possibly translate into some last-minute buzz, but that didn't happen even when Conclave managed to beat Anora and The Brutalist at BAFTA.

I would like to express my love for Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan, the two also-rans in the category who happened to be my favorites.

Domingo is certainly on track to win an Oscar in the coming years with the amount of work he is due to churn out and the good will he has built up, but the passion and grit he gave in Sing Sing was nothing short of beautiful.

Stan had the task of playing someone who has some of the most passionate supporters and vehement detractors...and having to ride that line of getting criticism from both sides.

Stan's Trump is devoid of caricature tropes. He doesn't attempt to do a vocal impersonation, but he nails so many of the mannerisms down to a tee that by the end of the film, you see that a vile piece of work was born....well, Trump was basically always vile but you get the idea. 

The Apprentice was a better film than most gave it credit for. It didn't try to humanize or necessarily villainize Trump but just let the actions speak for themselves...and if his followers are upset, guess what, THE FILM JUST TOLD IT LIKE IT WAS!

The big thing about Chalamet's SAG win is that Oscar voting is already done. If there was to be a change of pace, I feel like his best bet would've been if the Oscars were a week or two later with voting extended. COULD he possibly take it? I think he could, but I still would be a little bit surprised.

Brody's performance is certainly strong, but I do think Chalamet will pose a slight challenge. It also doesn't hurt that while A Complete Unknown hasn't won any major Picture or Director prizes, the fact it keeps getting in, including a Director nomination for James Mangold which most people suspected would never happen, leads me to believe it could be enough to be a viable threat. 

Still going with Brody, though.

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BEST ACTRESS:

#1 - Demi Moore, The Substance

#2 - Mikey Madison, Anora

#3 - Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

#4 - Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

#5 - Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Gascon is clearly a non-entity here. It's a shame to cast aside this historic nomination but her demeanor, the work, and the film don't deserve praise. I will just leave it at that.

I am of the belief that this is something of a three-horserace. 

While statistically on paper, Demi Moore is the clear frontrunner here in terms of buzz and the number of televised awards she received.

Then you have Mikey Madison, who did win an industry prize at BAFTA and who just so happens to be in the film that could very well end up winning Best Picture.

And lastly, Fernanda Torres - whose win at the Golden Globes put her right in the limelight just in time for Oscar nomination voting to begin...and indirectly, the delays in voting caused by the wildfires only allowed for more voters to watch the film and fall in love with her...not to mention the film as it managed to slip into the Best Picture race with one of the more surprising nominations in recent memory (which is hilarious considering I was predicting the film way back in October/November only to drop it when it seemed like Emilia Perez and All We Imagine as Light were becoming the more prominent foreign films in the race.

I do want to give a quick moment to single out Cynthia Erivo. I still think she truly made Elphaba her own, which is saying something considering the dozens of women who have played the role and have been analyzed and obsessed about by various theatre fanatics over the last 20 years. The vulnerability and how she paced her performance in terms of maturity and her emotional journey even down to how she chose to sing the songs was a masterclass. I am honestly thrilled to see what she does in For Good, because if she sustains all of this, I truly think she should be right in front for next year's Best Actress campaign. 

I do want to single out some other performances that missed out: 

Angelina Jolie, Maria 

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

This might've been Jolie's best work, and while the film around her did suffer from being a little stuffy and distant and alienating, she gave such a heartbreaking performance.

Jean-Baptiste might've honestly given the best performance I have seen from last year and the fact she managed to win the critics trifecta is very telling. I kept hearing comments from people that it was a very one-note performance and that it makes the film unpleasant to watch. I would agree the film can be unpleasant but that is not to its detriment. 

Jean-Baptiste is also NOT one-note. Yes, she does have the volatile and aggressive anger towards people...something I frankly responded to if only for the fact her natural demeanor is so warm and lovely...but there are two key scenes in that film, one by a grave plot and another at her sister's home that truly make feel choked up at her work. 

I would've loved to see these two get into the race and they both had a shot, particularly MJB to the point that some were even predicting her to just slip in. 

Having said all that, who do I think is winning?

I do think I am going to stick with Demi Moore. We have seen these cases where the narrative of rewarding a veteran gets overshadowed by someone in an acclaimed performance in a stronger Best Picture player...but there is a big difference here: Madison may be in the likely Best Picture winner, but Moore is still in a Best Picture nominee, and I would argue one that ignited more of a spark in public interest.

Madison's win at BAFTA does signal there is strong support for her, and that was from a voting body that didn't even reward Anora with Film, Director, or Screenplay prizes. 

I do think it's close. I will go with Moore, but I do think Madison is not out of it and I also think Torres has a very good possibility of pulling off the upset.

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BEST DIRECTOR:

#1- Sean Baker, Anora

#2 - Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

#3 - Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

#4 - Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

#5 - James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

There was a weird feeling about the idea of Brady Corbet winning the Oscar...and yet, that seemed to be the path we were going down. 

It isn't that I necessarily thought he would be undeserving considering what he achieved shooting on film over a roughly month long shooting period on a flimsy $10 million budget is nothing short of astounding...but the final product is still erratic in my book...plus this is only his 3rd film. 

And yet...Sean Baker won DGA in a relative upset and changed that trajectory. From the earliest days of the season up until DGA, the consensus seemed to be that Anora seemed less like a Director movie and more like a winner that would coast on a Screenplay win. 

However, Baker's work is quite good and I championed it with a plea in my Oscar Nominations Reaction post. He has been a very solid indie filmmaker now for over a decade and I think this could be the moment he is ready to truly be invited into the club.

I am so glad that the Emilia Perez train got derailed and while Gascon is the face of most of that drama, Audiard frankly deserves to be raked over the coals quite a bit. His lack of care over Mexican culture and even wanting to research the country and drug cartels and the trans experience all reads as someone who clearly feels like he knows way more than he actually does...and the results are on the screen, but some people still kept lapping it up with their spoons.

I did legitimately have a fear that Audiard could pull off what Baker did, but columnist Jeff Sneider made a comment on an episode of FYC with Scott Mantz and Perri Nemiroff that the one film he kept hearing rumblings about from the industry was Anora and that it was the film that many had wished they made. 

Once Baker won the DGA, that observation made a lot more sense. 

I am honestly shocked Mangold is here, but I suppose this nomination can serve as a "welcome" considering his been doing solid work for years and has yet to receive a nomination; I just think it was at the expense of some stronger work.

I will say that if they want to go for a crazy visionary who truly made a film that went full on bonkers in its approach to the point where she literally held the camera to film the rather, ummm, chaotic final scene, Fargeat is right there. 

I do think Baker will eek this out, but it does still seem like Corbet get also squeeze by if enough people take into account what he was able to accomplish with so little.

I just think Fargeat could work as a happy chaotic medium...not that it would ever happen.

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BEST PICTURE:

#1 - ANORA

#2 - CONCLAVE

#3 - THE BRUTALIST

#4 - A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

#5 - THE SUBSTANCE

#6 - WICKED

#7 - I'M STILL HERE

#8 - EMILIA PEREZ

#9 - DUNE: PART TWO 

#10 - NICKEL BOYS

After last year in which Oppenheimer dominated with such intensity, we now have a season in which there is a little bit of doubt as we approach Oscar night. 

Statistically though, it seems as though Anora should be winning this. It won the Best Picture awards at CC and PGA while also winning a surprise DGA for Sean Baker and pulling off the WGA for Baker as well, though that was more expected. 

BUT - Anora also got shut out at SAG and the Golden Globes (not that the Globes matter as strongly) and it only managed to net Actress and Casting wins at BAFTA...which is interesting considering Actress is the category where Anora has been struggling at most in terms of likelihood of winning. 

Instead of The Brutalist, it appears that Conclave has emerged as the film that is arguably in second place, if not, the film that may actually take the prize in the end.

I think the one thing that gives me pause about Conclave was that it didn't win the PGA on a preferential ballot which is something that even films like Green Book and Coda were able to achieve. 

However, Conclave won Best Ensemble at SAG and also has the added bonus of winning at BAFTA while being the major frontrunner to win Adapted Screenplay and possibly take the crucial craft award that is Editing. 

While Conclave was ineligible for the WGA, it does seem extremely likely it would've won if nominated. Its path to victory would be very similar to that of films like Spotlight and Parasite.

One thing against Conclave that I sort of feel is that it just seems like it doesn't have a lot of passion. It did lose PGA, but it does seem like a big deal that it managed to win at SAG over Anora and perhaps the one film that I sort of thought may take it due to the nomination overhaul it received: Wicked. 

As someone who actually really liked Anora a lot, I do find it interesting how much vitriol the film has received from the online film forum/Film Twitter crowd. I am not claiming the film is a masterpiece...I would argue the only film here that flirts with such a claim is Dune: Part Two. However, I did find the film to be very enjoyable and very vibrant and loved a lot of the twists that Baker incorporated.

The biggest criticism I could give Anora is that Baker really should've trimmed about another 10-15 minutes off of the film. Upon a rewatch, I do feel like the film dragged a lot more in the second act whereas the first and final acts played a little better. He really could've tightened the pace a bit more, but honestly, it is the film I did appreciate the most here. 

I don't want to make it seem like this is bias, but I just feel that statistically, it does make more sense for me to predict Anora. Having said that, I really think Conclave could pull it off too and it won't surprise me in the least. 

What would I think of Conclave as a winner? It would be average. I did like the film and found it pretty entertaining and engaging, but as I have said before, it didn't necessarily "wow" me. It would not be as horrible as something like Crash or Green Book winning, but it would be on the higher-but-average side...and for a lot of the Best Picture winners in history, that isn't the worst place to be.

It doesn't seem surprising in hindsight that The Brutalist struggled like it did. I will say that for a 3.5 hour film, I do think it was paced very well and still kept me engaged...but all I keep hearing from various sources is that a lot of voters find the film to be very difficult to watch. 

As I have stated many times, my issue with the film stemmed from a messy and overambitious script that was the nearly fatal flaw of the second half. I can't support a film that drops off to that kind of degree, and it seems clear that many others agree.

 I do think at this point, Anora is the tentative frontrunner, but Conclave is nipping at its heels.

THIRTEEN NOMINATIONS?!?!?!?!?!? - My Reaction to the 2025 Academy Award Nominations

Before I get into discussing the Top 8 categories, I still have not seen the following major contenders:

A Complete Unknown

I'm Still Here

Nickel Boys

 September 5

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Happy Oscars Day everyone! I hope you like trash!

Let me give you a list of films that received 13 or 14 Oscar nominations from the Academy's nearly 100-year history. Just for reference, "14" is the biggest number of nominations a film has received. Those 3 films were All About Eve, La La Land, and Titanic.

But for 13 nominations, here is the list:

Gone With the Wind

From Here to Eternity

Mary Poppins

Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Forrest Gump

Shakespeare in Love

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Chicago

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The King's Speech

Lincoln

The Revenant

The Shape of Water

Oppenheimer

...now, I am not claiming that all of these films are necessarily amazing or a personal favorite of mine, but a lot of these films are still pretty respected to varying degrees.

And as of today, Emilia Perez joins the group...and I cannot express my disdain enough.

I can't say that I am a supporter of Gone with the Wind, but imagine telling someone that Emilia Perez and Gone with the Wind both got the same amount of Oscar nominations????

I cannot for the life of me understand how the industry embraced that film while a lot of audiences and various critics looked at the film and immediately said: "What the absolute fuck is this?"

I have already ranted enough about this film, and probably will do so again as we go through these categories, so let's just begin with Screenplay categories and go from there:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

 CONCLAVE

EMILIA PEREZ

NICKEL BOYS

SING SING

THOUGHTS: This is one of those categories where Dune: Part Two was originally thought to have been able to slip in due to a relatively sparse group of competitors and the fact that it was a superior effort to the first outing...and frankly, it is kind of a shame how much it got shafted this award season as it was an absolutely fantastic film that deserved all the rhapsodic plaudits it received.

While I have not seen A Complete Unknown yet, it does seem a bit crazy to me that what by all accounts is a pretty straightforward generic musical biopic got embraced this much. Then again, I shouldn't be THAT shocked. It is the old-fashioned definition of "Oscar bait"...and we do still get these kinds of films every year that seemingly the more traditional voters within the Academy cling to.

Nickel Boys is a film I am dying to see based on the division it has caused in some circles for the risks RaMell Ross took as a director...and there are people I know whose opinions I highly respect that do love the film so I would like to think this nomination is richly deserved. We shall see once I finally see the film within the next month. 

As for the other three, Sing Sing would get my vote...but Conclave seems like the one that is on the path to victory here. I didn't write a review for it when I watched it back in November, but it wasn't because I disliked it. Conclave was a very well made and handsome film that was entertaining and a pretty easy watch...but it didn't necessarily "WOW" me. It winning this category certainly wouldn't upset me that much, but I wouldn't consider it an all-timer selection.

Sing Sing got unfairly shafted throughout most of award season and I think a lot of that has to be placed at the feet of A24, who did seem far more invested in putting their focus on The Brutalist which does seem like its on the path of being a possible frontrunner for Best Picture. I just thought everything about Sing Sing worked so beautifully. It could've been preachy and maudlin and mawkish, but it came off as incredibly endearing and bittersweet while also giving us the punch it needed to about the prison system. 

And a beautiful film like that has to share this category with the absolute utter trash that is Emilia Perez. If they really wanted to slot a musical here, I would say that Wicked was far more deserving of that honor...and sure, maybe that film wasn't perfect, but it was incredibly entertaining. I do think the extended runtime did help the storyline actually breathe and it makes the stage show feel insanely rushed in hindsight. I actually have high hopes that Wicked: For Good will stick the landing and actually further improve upon "Act Two" which does suffer from the usual stigma that Act Two's of musicals often have unless they are something like Into the Woods.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

ANORA

THE BRUTALIST

A REAL PAIN

SEPTEMBER 5

THE SUBSTANCE

THOUGHTS: I did not predict September 5, but it does seem to make sense in hindsight considering it was more of a fringe contender in the Best Picture race with its PGA and Golden Globe nominations. I am curious to see this one as it does seem to have a very vocal fanbase, but it also seems to be a mysterious film that very few actually have seen.

It almost reminds me of when United 93 came out, although I was one of that film's biggest champions at the time. 

The Brutalist feels like one of those Screenplay nominations that a Best Picture frontrunner just gets because of its status rather than the true quality of the Screenplay. It is a film that is truly a "Director" film in my eyes...and even if the film did stick the landing (which it did not...see my review -here-), I am not sure I would've supported a win.

A Real Pain is a film that I really enjoyed as I watched it, but as the weeks pass, I feel a little less enthused about it. It isn't that I hated it, but I am not sure it is a film that had that strong of a screenplay. 

I did consider it to be a dark horse to win here, but since it lost out on a Best Picture nod, I don't think it'll happen. It is extremely rare for a film to win for its Screenplay when it doesn't get a corresponding Picture nomination. In fact, the last time it happened was 20 years ago this year when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won in this category...and I still bemoan the fact that film didn't get a Best Picture nomination when it should've WON. 

The real race here should be between Anora and The Substance, but at the moment, the tide seems to be going in Anora's direction and considering I do think that film still has a shot at winning Best Picture, that makes me feel a bit more confident.

I will say that The Substance has grown on me in the months since I have watched it, and if we are talking truly "original" and vibrant works, Fargeat would be a very strong choice to take this for her work. 

I am at a point where I clearly cannot make a top 10 list for 2024 yet, but I will say as of now, that Anora will be vying for a lofty slot on that list and my biased opinion is that while I think it will win here, I think it also deserves it.

Sean Baker has been doing such great work for years, and it would be wonderful to see him get recognized for what is his best film to date. It manages to blend so much genre styles and little gems of plot twists to create a structure that sort of feels messy and meandering in the best ways. I know some have come to attack the film for this reason, but maybe the fact I saw it early on when it was first released here in NY made me feel less effected by the buzz.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

THOUGHTS: I will be honest in saying when I first watched Anora, I wasn't sure I came away thinking Borisov was the performance I would reward with a nomination here. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that his co-stars, Mark Eydelshteyn and the Sean Baker perennial favorite Karren Karagulian, give showier performances...and in fact, the latter was who I was more prone to vote for upon leaving the film...but what makes Borisov so interesting is that his character/performance is one of the biggest reasons why I want to revisit the film. He is often in the background, but you can clearly see what they are using him for, and his presence is kind of endearing and adorable as the film progresses.

Then - in the film's 20 minutes, he gets his chance to shine. I am not saying it is big or flashy, but it is effective...and I won't say much more about it to avoid spoilers, but I do love seeing a performance like this get recognized. 

I cannot comment on Edward Norton's work, but it sounds like the role is a pretty decent change of pace for him, so I am intrigued to see what he does.

Guy Pearce is more of an interesting case for me as I really love seeing this man get a long overdue Oscar nomination that he truly deserved nearly 25 years ago for Memento, but I was not as passionate about his work in The Brutalist. I do think his performance was very much in vogue of how people of his character's stature acted in the 1950s, but I really think a lot of what makes his work suffer is the script. 

Then you have Kieran Culkin, who has been steamrolling this season almost as intensely as Ke Huy Kuan and DaVine Joy Randolph...and while it is very good work, I am not sure he is THAT undeniable and it is also clearly a Lead performance. 

My personal vote would go to that of his Succession co-star Jeremy Strong, who gets to tackle the diabolical real-life supervillain that was Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. This was perfect casting in that Strong can truly give himself those dead eyes that Cohn had...and had worked so well for certain moments on Succession, but the performance is also not a caricature. He doesn't try to go for a mimic in terms of the voice, but he captures Cohn's mannerisms and body language to a tee...even down to Cohn's tic to tapping his tongue on teeth at the end of sentences. 

I will be happy for Culkin, and it would be deserving on merit even if the performance isn't Supporting...and I do think Culkin was the clear rightful winner over Strong for the final season of Succession...but this one truthfully should go to Strong.

Lastly, it is a shame that Clarence Maclin couldn't make it in for Sing Sing. I am grateful that he managed to get in for the Screenplay nod, but I feel like he was on par with his exquisite co-star that we will be discussing shortly.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

THOUGHTS: Cannot comment on Monica Barbaro, but the buzz around her has been pretty strong and I look forward to seeing her work!

As for the other 4, this category is kind of laughable...and I don't mean that in terms of the performances but how unfair it is.

Saldana is the CLEAR LEAD of her film, while Grande is definitely a co-lead. 

Then you have Felicity Jones, who does have a lot of screentime in The Brutalist, but she is pretty much confined to the second half of the film (I would argue she is the best aspect of the film's second half) and Isabella Rossellini, who has less than 10 minutes of screentime in Conclave.

How fair is it really to pit a performance like Rossellini's, which is the kind of work that this category was made for, with someone like Saldana who the story mostly revolves around even over Gascon at times?

As I stated in my review of the film, Saldana is easily the best thing about Emilia Perez and she came out of it with a very good performance despite the material she was given...but that, combined with the fact that she is not in the right category and I just don't think this film deserves the recognition, she should not be winning this.

I feel hypocritical though, because I would be far more excited to see Grande swoop in to win at CC and SAG and then take the Oscar...but considering how these precursor awards have embraced Emilia Perez and the fact it just joined a group of films that have the second most nominations that a film has ever received (....that still hurts me to type...), Saldana could very well steamroll through the rest of this. 

I am sad that Margaret Qualley couldn't make it in here, and it is a shame that Danielle Deadwyler just can't catch a break with Oscar voters. 

It also looks like Jamie Lee Curtis couldn't work her campaigning magic this time around...but I can't comment on that performance since The Last Showgirl is one of the film's I still haven't seen.

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BEST ACTOR:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

THOUGHTS: The snub here was for Daniel Craig, but he was always considered the most vulnerable and it is clear that Queer (a film I have a screener of but have not watched yet), did not make a splash with most people.

Sebastian Stan getting this nomination is so richly deserved because, much like his co-star Strong, he does such a magnificent job at playing Trump not as a caricature but capturing his essence so perfectly...especially as his age progresses throughout the film. The big thing about The Apprentice is that it is a film that is far easier a watch than many may give it credit for. It doesn't try to preach to you in any way other than to just let history speak for itself...and yes, history proves Trump was an evil jackass who became even more of an evil jackass...but the man is human, a vile one but still a human. Stan truly deserves this nomination, and I am so glad he got in. I also hope it gets under Trump's skin and ruins his day.

As for the other 4, they have been locked in since October it feels like...even when basically no one had seen A Complete Unknown...nor can I comment on Chalamet yet.

Fiennes does sterling work here, but I do feel the nomination is his reward.

The race seems to be Brody with Chalamet nipping at his heels as I do agree with many pundits that I can see a world in which Chalamet wins at SAG and can take over the narrative of winning the Oscar...and it seems far more plausible with how much the film has been embraced by SAG, BAFTA, and now with the Academy.

Considering Brody won an Oscar and hasn't been on the scene as visibly in the last 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if that works against him...even if the Academy was willing to give Frances McDormand a THIRD Oscar for a relatively okay performance in Nomadland just 3 years after she won her 2nd or giving Emma Stone a 2nd just 7 years after she won a richly UNDESERVED Oscar for La La Land. 

However, I think Brody can still do it and that the performance backs him up...but I also feel like I might be more inclined to give my personal vote to Colman Domingo.

Domingo is having a moment, and it is glorious! This is a such a beautiful performance with such passion, and he anchors that ensemble with such a force and I do think that while this won't be his year in the end, an Oscar will likely be right around the corner with him.

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BEST ACTRESS:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

THOUGHTS: 

I am still so bummed that I have not seen I'm Still Here and I cannot wait to do so. I was a huge fan of Walter Salles' 1998 film Central Station which he made with Torres' mother Fernanda Montenegro, who managed to get the first Lead Actress nomination for a performance in a Brazilian film. Not to speak for everyone, but there does seem to be an overwhelming consensus in the filmgoing community that Montenegro was robbed of the Oscar at the expense of Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love...and that she, or Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth, would've been far superior choices.

Yes, I agree. I absolutely fucking agree. 

I hope to post a review for I'm Still Here once I manage to see it.

I did originally have doubts about Erivo as being the candidate who gets in everywhere but then gets snubbed...but I am so glad to see her make it in here! As someone who has seen and heard several Elphaba performances over the years, there is something so tender and vulnerable and sweet about Erivo's portrayal of her. This is a girl who was essentially neglected by her father and made to be thought of as a vile creature her entire life...and in the end, she clearly has a heart in there which Erivo brings out so strongly. By the time we reach "Defying Gravity", everything is in place for her to be the one who will do "No Good Deed" ever again as we shall all see this coming November. 

Gascon made history as the first openly trans female to be nominated for an acting Oscar...and while I do want to champion this achievement, I am still not sure her performance was worthy enough to make this lineup, especially when the likes of Marianne Jean-Baptiste and even Angelina Jolie were left off in her wake. I would even argue that her co-star Zoe Saldana would've made a far better option strictly in terms of the overall performance. 

As of this exact moment, the race seems to be between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore...but with the tragedy of the wildfires, we are delayed in finding out who will win the CC. Moore managed to beat Madison at the Globes which I thought was possible, but I still thought Madison was more of the frontrunner. 

This is what I find amazing about the prospect of either Madison or Moore winning: neither of them seem like a typical awards-baity performance.

Madison is youthful and edgy and foul-mouthed while Moore is in a body horror film that also flirts with comedic elements and "hagsplotation". And yet, the buzz seems to be shifting in Moore's favor. I could see a world where Madison wins CC but then Moore wins SAG. I am a little torn as to what might happen at BAFTA. There are even some thinking Erivo could swoop in and take SAG, which isn't exactly impossible although I am not predicting that. SAG did go hog-wild for Wicked as evidenced by the bonkers nod for Jonathan Bailey...and that is why some think even Grande could overtake Saldana. 

One could argue that both Erivo and Grande can wait and that we can honor them next year, but who is to say if that will even pan out? For all we know, the second half will somehow be far worse or each of them will face performances that are too undeniable. Upon seeing the film, I was more into Grande's work, but I keep going back to thinking about Erivo. I kind of hope both of them can get their flowers in some way, either this year or next year. 

Moore would make for a wonderful winner, but she also lacks screentime considering a lot of her film is shared with Margaret Qualley...whereas Mikey Madison is Anora and Anora is Mikey Madison through and through. 

However, I could see Madison falling prey to being too modern and edgy a performance in a similar vein as Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman, who also happened to be a critical favorite who snuck out a CC win and was hugely popular with film fanatics only to then got shafted by the majority of the major precursors. 

I could see a world where Madison takes CC but then loses SAG to Moore and potentially BAFTA as well...but to be clear, I would be happy to see Moore win this. I would be happy to Erivo take it honestly!

I even expect to adore Torres based on how rapturous of a response she and that film has gotten!

I suppose Madison would get my personal vote if I had to choose, but I do think the tide is currently shifting into Moore's favor. 

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BEST DIRECTOR:

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Sean Baker, Anora

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

THOUGHTS: What I usually love about the Directing branch as of late is that they don't give a flying fig about some of the more mainstream or traditional fare that other branches may flock to. Last year, they went against the grain and opted for Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer over names like Alexander Payne and Greta Gerwig (although she would've been a refreshing choice)...which is why the nomination of James Mangold seems a bit odd. 

When he got nominated at DGA, seemingly every pundit immediately wrote him off as being one of those typical banal DGA picks that won't translate to the Oscar. I also thought that Edward Berger for Conclave had the potential to also be left off the list, which DID happen, but Mangold managed to make it in for what is seemingly just a simple musical biopic.

Yes, I know. I haven't seen it yet...but I do have to say with complete confidence: Denis Villeneuve was robbed. He infamously got snubbed for the first one, and with Part Two, he outdid himself. He should've been here, at least over some of these nominees.

I know many are sad that RaMell Ross' critical success did not translate to mainstream awards recognition, and it does seem like the POV choice that he uses has been received a bit more erratically by some. 

As someone who greatly enjoyed Wicked, I am not entirely sure I would've nominated Jon M. Chu here nor did he really have that strong of a shot, but I am thrilled to see Coralie Fargeat here as her vision was bold and striking and completely unlike what we normally see in the Director category...or at the Oscars in general. I think the film has grown on me, and a lot of that was due to realizing how much of the film works because of how much Fargeat just goes balls to the wall. She is so hands on with her work that she is holding the camera during the absolutely bonkers final scene in the auditorium. 

The tide does seem to be shifting in Brady Corbet's direction, even if The Brutalist doesn't end up winning Best Picture...but I do want to express two things:

A solid plea for Sean Baker AND a concern for Jacques Audiard. 

Audiard has always been a solid filmmaker, and he was even responsible for one of my top 5 favorite films of 2009: A Prophet. I do have a genuine fear that Emilia Perez could very well end up winning at SAG, PGA, and that Audiard could even take DGA and BAFTA. The fact that the film got as many nominations as it did only make this concern of mine even more heightened.

Emilia Perez could've been directed by David Lynch as his last swan song before his passing and I would still not to see it rewarded with anything. It would be an absolute black hole (or Black Lodge if you will...) on his legacy. I truly do fear of this path, and I pray that I am wrong about this.

Sean Baker is at the opposite end of this as he has mostly been known as an indie filmmaker on the fringes for years, with only one film truly inching close to Oscar consideration which was 2017's The Florida Project. Although, his status on the international film stage is firmly in place after he managed to win the Palme D'or at Cannes for Anora. 

I do think you could make the case that it would make more sense to honor Baker for his screenplay rather than his direction, but I do think he does an absolutely splendid job directing this. The genre shifts are not easy to do and not every director can pull that off. I would like to think that if anyone were to derail the Corbet train, it would Baker...although my fear is that Audiard is the one with the steam.

Corbet is in an interesting position as this is only his 3rd feature film, but what he accomplishes with such a small budget is...hyperbole be damned...nothing short of astounding.

Even if I may take issue with the film from a script standpoint, I cannot begrudge him the Oscar win here...even if the final product would likely cost him my personal vote in the end. It is hard not to get swept up into the epic nature of this film. 

All I ask is that anyone but Audiard wins, but I would love to put the good vibes out into the universe for Baker and Fargeat. 

________________________________

BEST PICTURE:

ANORA

THE BRUTALIST

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

CONCLAVE

DUNE: PART TWO

EMILIA PEREZ

I'M STILL HERE

NICKEL BOYS

 THE SUBSTANCE

WICKED

THOUGHTS: I am still going through the catalog of 2024's film output, and I still think as of now that this year is relatively weak; especially when compared to how strong 2023 was.

As a list of nominees though, it is certainly not the weakest I have seen. I would argue 2022 as a year for film and the roster of films nominated were way weaker. Even 2021 was a year in which I liked the output more than 2024 but thought the eventual Oscar nominees were relatively lackluster.

The big story of nomination morning was that I'm Still Here managed to slip into this category despite having no real presence in any of the precursors beyond mentions for it in International Feature or the Golden Globe win for Torres. The common theme here is that the delay in final voting due to the fires actually may have benefitted the film...but perhaps even more crazy was that I made a post on Facebook way back in November in which I predicted what I thought would be the eventual Best Picture nominees and I had I'm Still Here on that list as I suspected it would be a potential candidate for the foreign film that makes the list which has happened pretty much every year since Roma in 2019. If you are curious, I got two films missing from that list: A Complete Unknown and Wicked. This was right before Wicked came out and I still hadn't bought into the idea that it would be an awards player. So I suppose good on me for attempting to call I'm Still Here that early even though I dropped it!

I would argue that the film's with the best chance to take this prize are currently Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez. I would've included Conclave, but the fact that it didn't get the Directing nomination and hasn't had much of a surge in winning anything beyond its Screenplay gives me pause. If it wins PGA or SAG Ensemble in an upset, I will reconsider. 

I have also heard people make the case for Wicked, which could win PGA in an upset and is very likely to win SAG Ensemble...but I just don't see it happening. The fact it couldn't get Director or Screenplay nominations makes me think it is out of the running entirely. Even if it had snuck into Screenplay, I just feel like it would be such a crazy stat-breaking victory. 

I do think Coda's very loony victory proved that crazy things could happen considering that film managed to win with just 3 nominations/3 wins...but 2 of those wins were Screenplay and Supporting Actor. I just don't see Wicked pulling it off otherwise, especially since it isn't even guaranteed to win an acting award. In the last 30 years, only two films won Best Picture without winning either Director or Screenplay: Gladiator and Chicago...but those films still got nominations in both categories.

I had a dream the other night that The Substance pulled off a Driving Miss Daisy: Best Picture, Actress, Screenplay, and Makeup...and no, I truly don't see this happening. The true win is that a film like this even got nominated here, and it does show that there are tides still shifting within the Academy.

My dream scenario is that Anora manages to win PGA, and that Mikey Madison can at least win at SAG or BAFTA and that the film can leave the Oscar ceremony with wins in Picture, Actress, and Screenplay...but I truly worry about Emilia Perez. While the industry is clearly embracing it, audiences are not...and usually that can be enough to affect a film's chances. Even something like The Power of the Dog did so well with critics and precursors but had such low audience scores and such little passion that it allowed a film like Coda to sneak in. And yet...I feel more nervous that Emilia Perez could still do it.

The audience score that the film has on Rotten Tomatoes is THIRTY-FOUR PERCENT!!!!! To put that into perspective using two of the least popular Best Picture winners of the last 20 years, Crash has an 88; Green Book has 91!

I feel like The Brutalist could fall into the Power of the Dog type slot this year, but I also get the sense that more people do have a passion for it...however, it still has its detractors. Even though I would argue I am a detractor, I still found the film highly watchable and entertaining for its entire 3.5 hour length...even if I did question the script choices in that final hour.

Anora falls prey to being an early frontrunner that faced some scrutiny from those who may have found it to be overpraised...and that is highly unfortunate. However, I do suspect this to be a year where we could possibly be in suspense until the night itself. I even wonder if the race will be divided to a point where it resembles the 2015/2016 year when Spotlight managed to win Best Picture with just a Screenplay win while The Revenant wins Director, Actor, and Cinematography...3 awards that The Brutalist seems highly likely to win. 

I have to admit that I do love the uncertainty here, but I do loathe that a film like Emilia Perez is part of this conversation in a truly prominent way.

I will return with final Oscar predictions once we get near the end of February, and hopefully I will be back sooner with film reviews for the ones I haven't seen yet!

IT'S A STRANGE WORLD, INDEED: In Memory of David Lynch (1946-2025)

I don't do posts like these often. 

In fact, the last time I did an In Memoriam post was back in 2021 when legendary composer Stephen Sondheim passed away. Within an hour or two of hearing about his passing, I had to write about my feelings as Sondheim's contributions to the world of musical theatre had a profound effect on me in my youth...and that evening, I actually cried while listening to various songs he had written. 

Much like Sondheim, very few artists had as a strong a hold on me in my formative years quite like David Lynch.  

I was a very young boy when Twin Peaks first aired on ABC so my only memories of it were small glimpses in the background...but I also recall very vividly that my local library had the entire first season of the series on VHS. Even at a young age, something about seeing those VHS tapes in a row creating a full picture of the show's iconic "Welcome to Twin Peaks" sign made me very intrigued.

I found a pic of the set for reference!

But more on Twin Peaks in a little bit.

 As I got older, I developed a fascination with movies and as a gift, I was given one of the Microsoft Cinemania CD-Roms that acted as like film Wikipedia back in the days of the internet's infancy. I even found a pic of that to share here:

One of the features on this disc was that you could listen to audio clips and watch video clips of films that were deemed to be iconic, and one of the video clips was the opening scene of David Lynch's infamous 1986 neo-noir film Blue Velvet. 

The images of idyllic suburbia ending with worms devouring the earth underneath the blades of grass was unlike anything I had seen before...and then I realized that the man who made it was behind that Twin Peaks series I kept hearing about. 

I've gone into it before in other posts, but for the sake of brevity, let me just state very quickly that despite a childhood where I felt in fear about the world of religion I was placed in, my mother was very keen to have me embrace my love of the arts. While at times this would end up with me watching various films and TV shows that I probably shouldn't be watching (more on that later...), that act of hers led me to discovering myself in a lot of ways. I learned so much about life and culture and developed an interest in wanting to act and write and direct. 

I can make the case that David Lynch in particular was the biggest inspiration for me in my youth. Perhaps I didn't always get what the point was in his work....do most adults even????.... but all I knew watching his films, and Twin Peaks, was that I had not seen anything like it before. That small taste of Blue Velvet really lived up to the hype.

One story I have told on this blog was how 12-year-old me watched Blue Velvet with my Nan, who passed away just last year. My mom didn't really know much about the film nor did my Nan...but we had rented it from our local video store (RIP Video Warehouse) and that summer afternoon, I sat down to watch it with Nan.

Now...if you've seen the film...I am sure you are already thinking how absolutely bonkers it is that I even began watching this with her. When we got to the scene that Isabella Rossellini finds Kyle MacLachlan in her closet and proceeds to tell him to get undressed, my dear sweet Nan exclaimed "What kind of movie is this?! It is so weird! I am not watching this anymore!" and she proceeded to leave the room. She didn't tell me to stop watching it, she just chose to leave the room. 

And a family legend was born. 

Not to mention my fascination with David Lynch.

To put timing into perspective, this was the summer of 2001 leading up to the release of one of Lynch's most iconic and beloved works: Mulholland Drive. This was also the summer that I watched Twin Peaks for the first time by way of those library VHS tapes and the convenient fact that the show was still airing in reruns on Bravo in the middle of the night...which I also recorded onto VHS. 

I will admit that I went into Twin Peaks already knowing the answer of who killed Laura Palmer...thanks You Don't Know Jack...but that didn't affect my viewing of the show in the slightest. In fact, knowing it made me do something at that young age I hadn't done yet: observe the structure of the writing.

Granted, this also proves to be a bit fruitless in hindsight as Lynch and his co-creator of Twin Peaks, Mark Frost, had not intended to reveal anyone to be the killer until network and audience interference forced them to choose a path to reveal it during the second season...however, it was fascinating to watch that first season with the knowledge of who did it and seeing how expectations were subverted. 

Lynch was always an artist who was very focused on mood. In nearly every interview in which one of his frequent collaborators would talk about his process (i.e Kyle MacLachlan, Isabella Rossellini, Laura Dern, among others), they’d bring up how Lynch’s way of getting the feeling he wanted in a scene was often spiritual or right from nature: “Think of a wind”.

One could argue that his methods lacked substance, and maybe at times they might have. He also dipped too much into the concept of a “woman in trouble”. As transgressive as his work could be, it also still felt oddly trapped in the gee golly 1950s that he came of age in. 

However, when he gives over to the power of emotional expression, it can be especially brutal, like in Fire Walk With Me. 

I’ve been racking around in my brain about what all I wanted to say here and if I wanted to confine it all into one post or write about a few different things as a series.

I really want to discuss some of his films at length, so I am planning on devoting a few essays to his work. 

I will tackle:

Eraserhead

--

The Elephant Man

--

Blue Velvet

--

Mulholland Drive

--

Inland Empire

--

Eventually, I will go into the Twin Peaks saga but I really need time to sit with that whole series and film as it’s perhaps the set of work of his that I find the closest to my heart but also have grown to have conflicting feelings with as I’ve gotten older. 

So yes…if you are interested, please be on the lookout for my upcoming posts on the various works of David Lynch.

Forgive me for this being all over the place, but I was sitting at my office when I was heard the news and felt compelled to get some of my thoughts out right away. 

I find myself in a bit of shock. 

For better or worse, a lot of who I am today came from the work of David Lynch…as odd as that might be to read. I was already very interested in film before I truly knew of his work, but he was the first filmmaker who made me go “Wow. Can I do that too? What else is out there that is crazy like this?!”

I may have suffered from being a pretentious film bro as a teenager (one could argue I am still one now), but my love of film became my ultimate passion. That journey, in many ways, truly began with David Lynch.

Every interview and anecdote about him or by him just reveals a very quirky and genteel guy who surprisingly unleashes a darkness in his material often. Even reading his autobiography “Room to Dreem” from a few years ago was such a rewarding experience because you could tell this was a man with such a strong sense of compassion and spirit.

 I can’t help but feel the sense of loss. 

He was a something of a savior to a young confused boy who was looking for something to excite him and make him feel a little bit alive.

Thank you, Maestro. I will miss you. 

David Lynch

1946-2025